Gale Warning 491, NWS Anchorage, AK

233 
FZAK51 PAFC 020223 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Updated zone 121

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-021515-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A strong front pushes from the western Gulf tonight to the northern 
Gulf by Mon morning, then remains stationary through Tuesday while 
slowly dissipating. A 1009 mb low forms 475 nm South of Middleton 
Island Tue morning and moves to 200 nm Southeast of Middleton Island 
at 1008 mb by Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-021515-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.MON...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Near the
coast, E wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18  ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Near the coast, SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas  13 ft. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ120-021515-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to
18 ft  after midnight. Rain. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-021515-
Resurrection Bay-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt become Variable wind 
less than 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Higher winds and seas 
S of Caines Head. Rain. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-021515-
Prince William Sound-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.  Seas
3 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.MON...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
9 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-021515-
Port Valdez-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Rain. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-021515-
Valdez Narrows-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.  Seas
building to 3 ft. Rain. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-021515-
Valdez Arm-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
5 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-021515-
Passage Canal-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.  Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.MON...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
5 ft. Rain. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-021515-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming SE 10 kt. Seas
5  ft. 
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-021515-
Barren Islands East-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas  12 ft. 
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-021515-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 18 ft. Rain. 
.MON...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15  ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-021515-
Chiniak Bay-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 16 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-021515-
Marmot Bay-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 10 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9  ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-021515-
Shelikof Strait-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt diminishing to E 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Rain showers. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable
10 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. 
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-021515-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt by midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.MON...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9  ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-021515-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. 
.MON...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-021515-
Kachemak Bay-
623 PM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.  Rain showers. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

355 
FZAK51 PAFC 021200
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-030030-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A strong front pushes from the western gulf this morning to the 
northern gulf by Mon night, then remains stationary through 
Tue while slowly dissipating. A 998 mb low 480 nm south of Sand 
Point Mon night moves to 100 nm west of Kodiak City at 1005 mb by Tue
night.

$$

PKZ119-030030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Near the
coast, E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms in the
morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon.
Near the coast, E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ120-030030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt along the coast early. Seas 
18 ft. Rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms in the morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-030030-
Resurrection Bay-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-030030-
Prince William Sound-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas building to 10 ft. Widespread rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-030030-
Port Valdez-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-030030-
Valdez Narrows-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-030030-
Valdez Arm-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-030030-
Passage Canal-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-030030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 45
kt early. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Widespread 
rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-030030-
Barren Islands East-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-030030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-030030-
Chiniak Bay-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ137-030030-
Marmot Bay-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-030030-
Shelikof Strait-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-030030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-030030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-030030-
Kachemak Bay-
400 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

624 
FZAK51 PAFC 021711 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Updated 125 and 128

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-030545-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A strong front pushes from the western gulf this morning to the 
northern gulf by Mon night, then remains stationary through 
Tue while slowly dissipating. A 998 mb low 480 nm south of Sand 
Point Mon night moves to 100 nm west of Kodiak City at 1005 mb by Tue
night.

$$

PKZ119-030545-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Near the
coast, E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms in the
morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon.
Near the coast, E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ120-030545-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers. Isolated
thunderstorms in the morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-030545-
Resurrection Bay-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-030545-
Prince William Sound-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Gusts to 50 kt near hichinbrook Entrance 
in the morning. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-030545-
Port Valdez-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-030545-
Valdez Narrows-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-030545-
Valdez Arm-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...Small Craft Advisory today...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the late afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-030545-
Passage Canal-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-030545-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-030545-
Barren Islands East-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-030545-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-030545-
Chiniak Bay-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ137-030545-
Marmot Bay-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-030545-
Shelikof Strait-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ139-030545-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-030545-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-030545-
Kachemak Bay-
911 AM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

629 
FZAK51 PAFC 022326
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-031230-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1003 mb low will form 235 nm South of Middleton Island Tue and
move onshore 30 nm West of Cordova at 1004 Wed afternoon. A 1004 mb 
low 270 nm South of Chignik will move to 60 nm South of Seward at 
1008 mb Wed afternoon. The associated front will move to the North 
Gulf Coast Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-031230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Near the coast, SE wind 35 kt diminishing
to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Near the
coast, E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Near the coast, SE wind 40 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 
10 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ120-031230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ121-031230-
Resurrection Bay-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-031230-
Prince William Sound-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 50 kt near Hinchinbrook Entrance in the early evening. Seas 8 ft 
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-031230-
Port Valdez-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-031230-
Valdez Narrows-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-031230-
Valdez Arm-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-031230-
Passage Canal-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-031230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-031230-
Barren Islands East-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-031230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-031230-
Chiniak Bay-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-031230-
Marmot Bay-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-031230-
Shelikof Strait-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-031230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-031230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-031230-
Kachemak Bay-
326 PM AKDT Mon Oct 2 2017

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKDT Sun Oct 1 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
High pressure at the surface with an upper level ridge over
southern AK remain the dominant weather feature this morning.
This is leading to overall very quiet weather across the mainland.
The biggest issue this morning is some patchy fog and low stratus
along the north Gulf Coast and in Kachemak Bay. Over the Bering,
a weakening front is starting to stall out along 176W. But...the
bigger story is the rapidly developing area of low pressure near
52N to the SW of Kodiak. This system is moving north on a 130 kt
piece of the subtropical jet and it is bringing some of that
subtropical air with it. This means it will bring a good slug of
rain to Kodiak Island and much of the Gulf Coast. There have even
been a few lightning strikes associated with it over the North
Pacific overnight, indicating a healthy amount of instability as
well. Over the Western Aleutians, another finger of the jet is
moving from west to east at 150 kts. This energy will eventually
make it towards the Gulf of AK and will help to keep the weather
pattern rather active this week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in decent agreement on most major features. The most
important item of interest is that they have been playing "catch-
up" to the storm moving towards the Alaska Peninsula. They were
slow to resolve it a few days ago. Now they are struggling to keep
up with its speed and strength. There is a better consensus this
morning on timing and placement, but there is still some
uncertainty with how strong it will get and when. The higher
resolution NAM Nest was used early on to best capture the stronger
winds and heavier rain. The GFS was relied upon towards the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings and visibilities will persist through the TAF
period. However, north winds at the surface will increase through
the day. By this evening, expect strong southeast winds to develop
at mountain top and over the Turnagain Arm. This will lead to
some strong wind shear in and around the aerodrome.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The strong weather system south of Kodiak Island will move rapidly
north today. This system will reach Kodiak Island around midday,
and the Kenai Peninsula by late this afternoon. Gale force winds
are expected throughout the Gulf. Some areas of storm force winds
are also expected over Shelikof strait, near the Barren Islands,
and over the open Gulf southeast of Kodiak. This system will push
inland over Southcentral Alaska this evening through Monday.
Strong winds are expected through Turnagain Arm, the upper
hillside of Anchorage, and Portage Valley. Gusty winds are also
expected through the Knik Valley and Copper River Valley. Even
though this is a fast moving storm, considerable rain is expected
on the eastern Kenai Peninsula, with upwards of two inches
possible tonight through Monday. Plenty of moisture and some
showers will continue over the area through Monday night as the
system pushes further inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main focus over the next several days will be a strong low
pressure system rapidly approaching from the south today. A warm
front out ahead of the low will rapidly spread rain across the
AKPEN and into the Lower Kuskokwim River Valley beginning this
morning through Monday night. Strong upslope flow will lead to
periods of heavy rain on the east side of the Aleutian and Alaskan
Ranges while downsloping will limit the amount of precipitation
seen on the leeward side, though precipitation will redevelop
over Bristol Bay and move up the Kuskokwim River Valley. However,
the biggest impact from this system will be from high winds as a
southeasterly low level jet moves over the area Sunday night into
Monday morning. Winds between 30 to 50 mph will be likely across
the AKPEN with gusts as high as 70 mph through gaps and passes,
including near Kamishak Bay and west across Lake Iliamna.
Locations above 2000 ft along the Alaskan and Aleutian Ranges
could see winds as high as 80 mph on Sunday night as well. Rain
and winds will taper off throughout the day on Monday and the low
center weakens and moves over Bristol Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An elongated frontal boundary stretched across the Central Bering
will stall out today and weaken in places before dissipating
Monday evening. A short wave ridge temporarily moves across the
Western Bering and Aleutians before a low coming off of Russia
rapidly moves in Monday night bringing a wide swath of rain and
gale force winds to the region.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Fall storm activity will be on the rise, despite a predominantly
zonal upper level pattern. The biggest area of concern revolves
around a rapidly developing and deepening low pressure system that
will track from near Attu, northeast towards Toksook Bay. Models
have been trending deep over the last day or so and have really
locked in on a 960mb, or deeper, low. An area of storm force
winds, and rather widespread area of gales. Given the long west to
southwesterly fetch of this system, coastal flooding problems
could loom for parts of the SW coast Wednesday night and Thursday.
Secondly, guidance is now agreeing on a low rapidly developing
south of the Gulf of Alaska and shooting north near Prince William
Sound. The rapid pressure rises along the Gulf Coast and through
the Turnagain Arm, could lead to other potential wind problems
closer to the Anchorage metro.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119 130 131 138 352.

 Gale Warning 120 125 132 136 137 139 351 150
155 160 165 176 178 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KVP
LONG TERM...SS