High Wind Watch 19, NWS Anchorage, AK

687 
WWAK72 PAFC 212249
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
149 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

AKZ195-221500-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0015.171123T0600Z-171123T1800Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
149 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO
9 AM AKST THURSDAY...

* WIND...West wind 40 to 50 mph with gusts to 80 mph.

* TIMING...Winds rapidly increase Wednesday evening and continue 
  through through Thursday morning before tapering down. 

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris and may damage 
  property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. People are urged to secure loose objects that could
be blown around or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ181-221500-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0019.171123T1500Z-171124T0600Z/
Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of Cold Bay and Sand Point
149 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* WIND...Northwest wind 50 to 65 mph with higher gusts to 80 mph 
  possible. 

* TIMING...Winds increase rapidly Thursday morning and continue 
  through the evening, then taper down Thursday night. 

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris and may damage 
  property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. People are encouraged to closely monitor this
weather situation. Preparation for this potentially dangerous
weather event should begin now.

&&

$$

745 
WWAK72 PAFC 221144 CCA
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
244 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

AKZ195-221500-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0015.171123T0600Z-171123T1800Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
244 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO
9 AM AKST THURSDAY...

* WIND...West wind 40 to 50 mph with gusts to 80 mph.

* TIMING...Winds rapidly increase Wednesday evening and continue 
  through through Thursday morning before tapering down. 

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris and may damage 
  property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. People are urged to secure loose objects that could
be blown around or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ181-221500-
/O.COR.PAFC.HW.A.0019.171123T1500Z-171124T0600Z/
Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of Cold Bay and Sand Point
244 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* WIND...Northwest wind 50 to 65 mph with higher gusts to 80 mph 
  possible. 

* TIMING...Winds increase rapidly Thursday morning and continue 
  through the evening, then taper down Thursday night. 

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris and may damage 
  property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. People are encouraged to closely monitor this
weather situation. Preparation for this potentially dangerous
weather event should begin now.

&&

$$

337 
WWAK72 PAFC 221307
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
407 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

AKZ181-230215-
/O.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0019.171123T1500Z-171124T0600Z/
/O.EXB.PAFC.HW.W.0015.171123T1500Z-171124T0300Z/
Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of Cold Bay and Sand Point
407 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM AKST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Anchorage has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Thursday. The
High Wind Watch is no longer in effect. 

* WIND...Northwest wind 50 to 70 mph with higher gusts to 90 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase rapidly Thursday morning and 
  continue through the evening, then taper down Thursday night. 

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris and may damage 
  property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. People are urged to secure loose objects that could
be blown around or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

AKZ195-230215-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0015.171123T0600Z-171123T1800Z/
Pribilof Islands-
Including the city of Saint Paul
407 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM AKST THURSDAY...

* WIND...West wind 40 to 50 mph with gusts to 80 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will rapidly increase Wednesday evening and
  continue through Thursday morning before tapering down. 

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris and may damage 
  property. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. People are urged to secure loose objects that could
be blown around or damaged by the wind.

&&

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
549 AM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A frontal system is currently pushing onshore across the Kuskokwim
Delta and into Southwest Alaska early this morning. Along the
coast temperatures behind the front have warmed into the mid 30s,
but inland temperatures remain cooler with snow the prevailing
precipitation type. Over Southcentral Alaska, offshore flow
weakens as a flat upper level ridge shifts east. Flat ridging also
persists across the Aleutians and much of the Bering with the
next developing frontal system still well to the southwest of the
western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to be in good agreement with the front crossing
Southwest Alaska today and continuing east as a trough moving
into Southcentral Alaska this afternoon and evening. With regards
to the powerful low approaching the Southwest Alaska coast
Wednesday afternoon and evening, the 00Z GFS and EC have come in
to very good agreement on the strength and depth of the low
center. The 00Z NAM and Canadian track the low further south and
roughly 10 mb shallower, which while still windy would lead to a
colder solution. The stronger and more northerly solution was
preferred and is consistent with the strong thermal gradient
present across the Bering. Additionally the 06Z NAM came in in
better agreement with the GFS and EC, further favoring the more
northerly solution and potential for stronger southerly flow and
more warming along the coast ahead of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the day
with the potential for brief periods of MVFR conditions in light
snow showers this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

Dry offshore flow is quickly weakening this morning as shortwave
ridging builds over the region ahead of a weakening shortwave
trough which is currently moving inland along the west coast of
Alaska. Clouds will increase through the day with light snow
moving into inland Southcentral as the shortwave trough moves
eastward in the late afternoon and evening. Moisture is going to
be rather meager given the recent offshore flow, but there should
be enough forcing for ascent and low level southwest flow up Cook
Inlet to support light snow (generally an inch or less).

The shortwave trough will continue east overnight and Wednesday,
bringing another shot of cold air advection and rapidly
intensifying offshore winds. With the movement from west to east,
this event will tend to favor gaps along western Prince William
Sound and through Thompson Pass/Valdez. Westerly/northwest winds
will also ramp up to near storm force across the Barren Islands
over the marine waters. Another front will quickly move into the
western Gulf of Alaska Wednesday evening and overnight, bringing
rain and snow to Kodiak and the southern Kenai coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The calm before the storm aptly sums up the weather for Southwest
Alaska. Currently a weak cold front is crossing the region at 5
am, with the front stretching from Bethel to Goodnews Bay. Ahead
of this feature, widespread areas of light snow have developed
with some reduced visibilities observed. This will continue to
spread eastward through the day, with drier conditions returning
briefly.

Our attention then turns to a rapidly deepening storm that is
expected to affect the region as a ~965 mb low tracks from near
Nunivak Island Wednesday afternoon towards Bristol Bay Thursday
morning. An attendant cold front will surge eastward, before
stalling across central portions of southwest Alaska. A pretty
stout low-level jet of 55 to 70 knots will develop ahead of it,
with some of this energy mixing down to the surface, where
sustained southerly winds of 30 to 50 mph are expected. With the
waters still ice free and a decent fetch seen in the model data,
some high surf and beach erosion issues may develop, mainly from
Kipnuk south towards Goodnews Bay. Additionally, widespread
snowfall will develop along and ahead of the front, with perhaps 4
to 8 inches possible east of a Bethel to King Salmon line. This
is near where the front is expected to stall, with good surface
convergence and and strong ascent aloft, some mesoscale banding
will probably develop, enhancing the snowfall intensity. Closer to
the coast, temperatures will likely warm for the snow to turn to
mainly a rain snow mix with minor accumulations possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Another strong Bering Sea storm will bring more strong winds to
the eastern Bering Sea, Akpen, and eastern Aleutians. Generally
quiet weather is expected through the next 12 to 18 hours before
things begin to change, as a ~993 mb low north of Shemya Tuesday
evening heads towards Saint Matthews Island while rapidly
deepening to ~965 mb by early Wednesday afternoon, with an
attendant cold front sweeping east. This low is forecast to then
strengthen a few more millibars as it treks east towards Nunivak
island, before dropping southeast into Bristol bay Thursday
morning. Widespread precipitation and storm force winds will
develop along and ahead of the front.

As the low moves along the coast of Southwest Alaska, a PV
anomaly will dive southeast on the backside of the low, with
heights lowering to below 450mb. This will help compress the area
while interacting with strong cold and dry advection. This type
of setup is similar to a storm last week, albeit stronger in all
aspects. As such, some hurricane force wind gusts may develop
cross the eastern Bering and portions of the AKPEN/eastern
Aleutians. However, this is currently forecast to occur 3 to 4
periods out and given some uncertainty in strength and positioning
of the surface low among the various models, we decided to hold
off on a high wind watch for now. However, a special weather
statement was issued to cover these concerns.

Further west, once the storm force winds associated with the
front shift off to the east, wrap-around cold advection will
still maintain high-end gales to low-end storm force winds for
the western Bering, with lighter winds farther south across the
chain, and precipitation becoming more showery in nature.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

A ridge of high pressure enters from the west, meaning that
Thursday through Saturday should be clear and cold for most of the
state. The next system to impact the Alaska region is a low that
is forecast to move northward along the Kamchatka peninsula,
pushing a front through the Aleutians on Sunday. After the Sunday
time frame, model uncertainty becomes much higher, but for now, it
looks like a ridge will push storms approaching from the west
away from the mainland and into the Gulf of AK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 120 127 130-132 136 138 150 155 160 165 170 172-180
         181 185 351 352.
         Storm 411 412.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...Ahsenmacher
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...P Doll
LONG TERM...LF