Gale Warning 581, NWS Anchorage, AK

202 
FZAK62 PAFC 211213
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
313 AM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-220200-
313 AM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1003 mb low at 45N 159E will move to 58N 178E at 977 mb by Wed
morning. The low will continue to deepen rapidly to 964 mb as it 
tracks to 61N 168W by Wed evening. The low then moves to 60N 163W at
968 mb through Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-220200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
313 AM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-220200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
313 AM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft building to 23 to 
30 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 24 to 36 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ413-220200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
313 AM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft building to 11 to
18 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 33 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-220200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
313 AM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 30 kt becoming W 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft building to 15 to 23
ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.
.THU...NW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

852 
FZAK62 PAFC 220037
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-221345-
337 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 999 mb low at 57N 170E moves to 61N 165W at 968 mb Wed night
then shifts to 56N 154W at 983 mb Thu afternoon. The associated 
front pushes across the Bering and over the Alaska Peninsula by 
Thu afternoon. High pressure edges into the Central Aleutians by 
Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-221345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
337 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-221345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
337 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft building to 21 to 28
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 23 to 35 ft.  and rain
showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-221345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
337 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 33 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind up to 10 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-221345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
337 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft building to 16 to 24
ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Rain showers
and snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind up to 10 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 AM AKST Mon Nov 20 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The strong vertically stacked low in the southern Gulf reached
its maximum depth early this morning and is now starting to move
south with the associated frontal system stretched across the
northern Gulf following slowly south as well. With the exception
of Kodiak Island which the edge of the frontal system is
currently rotating across, precipitation is ending and skies
clearing across southern Mainland Alaska this morning with gusty
north to northeasterly outflow winds developing.

Over the Alaska Peninsula and the eastern Aleutians, post frontal
cold air advection as well as strong northerly winds aloft have
been bringing strong north to northwesterly winds particularly
through channeled gaps and passes. Ridging is building over the
central Aleutians and central Bering ahead of a frontal system
pushing into the western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement with regards to the deep low in the
Gulf and the trough/frontal system crossing the Bering today and
tonight. The low crossing the Bering on Wednesday however, offers
more challenges. While all the models agree that it will deepen
rapidly, significant differences persist in the track, timing and
strength as it turns southeast and tracks across Southwest Alaska
or along or offshore of the Southwest Alaska coast.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Breezy northerly winds and dry offshore flow will keep
conditions VFR at ANC with high clouds clearing out this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A powerful storm force low over the Gulf of Alaska is showing an
impressive and well defined circulation on satellite as the low
wraps up into a beautiful occlusion. Some very light snow over the
southern Copper Basin continues this morning, but this will end
quickly as weak ridging builds in and offshore winds increase
today. This offshore wind event will tend to favor higher mountain
gaps near the coast with the strongest winds through Thompson
Pass. For inland locales, local winds should be much weaker, and
in some cases, local inversions may keep winds light and high
temperatures quite a bit lower today.

Shortwave ridging will begin to build into Southcentral tonight,
allowing for weakening offshore winds and cold overnight low
temperatures. A shortwave trough in westerly flow will move into
the region Tuesday evening and overnight. However, the upper
trough will be weakening and shearing as it moves east, so snow
threats look minimal given the amount of low level dry air which
will be in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Breezy conditions will cause blowing snow concerns to persist
through through tonight, before the next system moves into the
region for Tuesday. Before that system arrives, short-wave
ridging aloft will move across the region monday evening into
Tuesday morning, with clearing skies. Winds will generally remain
in the 15 to 35 mph range though, with blowing snow concerns
persisting. Cooler overnight lows will be another artifact of the
departing storm, as colder air continues to funnel in from the
north.

The next in a series of storms will begin to affect the region on
Tuesday, as a low passing by well to the north sends another cold
front across the region. Winds will become southerly ahead of
this feature with widespread light snow developing along the coast
by sunrise, spreading eastward through the day. Accumulations
will be light though with most locations seeing less than 3
inches, even across the interior. Drier conditions and decreasing
clouds return for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, before yet
another more potent storm arrives for your Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Strong winds will persist for eastern portions of the AKPEN
and adjacent waters through late morning, with some gusts to 55
mph remaining possible. These winds will decrease through the
afternoon as a shortwave ridge across the west central Aleutians
traverses the region through tomorrow morning.

Just like a scene from a movie you may know, a repeat scenario is
in store for your weather as we head into the Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday morning time frame. During this time, a 995 mb
low near Shemya Tuesday evening will head northeast while
deepening. Patchy fog is possible along and south of an attendant
warm front, with widespread precipitation developing. This storm
looks to continue to strengthen heading into Wednesday with
increasing winds and precipitation coverage/intensity.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

On Tuesday, a low well north of the Arctic Circle will bring a
front through the southern portion of the mainland, with a brief
shot of snow for the entire region and some short-lived outflow
winds for the Southcentral area. Tuesday night and Wednesday will
be the literal calm before the storm for most of the state, as a
low pressure system enters the western Bering late Tuesday night
and strengthens rapidly as it crosses the Bering.

Models have been relatively consistent with the track of this
storm varying a little to the south over the past day. Current
forecast is for the low to cross the northern Bering and move
onshore near Nunivak Island late Wednesday night, before moving
southeastward over the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay before
heading into the Gulf on Thursday night. It is still expected to
be a storm force low and significant winds and waves are currently
in the forecast for the Bering Sea...with some concern for high
winds and seas in the Bristol Bay region on Wednesday. Behind
this storm another northwesterly punch will bring high winds for
the Pribilofs and the AK Pen, not unlike the pattern from this
weekend. As the storm moves into the Gulf, northwesterly outflow
winds will again be the concern for Southcentral on Friday. On
Saturday, the pattern begins again with another low approaching
from the southwest, although this system appears to take a more
northerly track along the Kamchatka Peninsula, hopefully lessening
the wind and wave threat in Alaska for next weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 127 130 131 136 137 138 139 150 155
			165 172 177 178 180 181 185.
         Storm Warning 132.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...LF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1002 AM AKST MON NOV 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KING COVE               55.06N 162.30W
11/20/2017  M83 MPH                             AK   AWOS

            GUST TO 78 MPH AT 704 AM

&&

KUTZ