Storm Warning 126, NWS Anchorage, AK

852 
FZAK62 PAFC 220037
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-221345-
337 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 999 mb low at 57N 170E moves to 61N 165W at 968 mb Wed night
then shifts to 56N 154W at 983 mb Thu afternoon. The associated 
front pushes across the Bering and over the Alaska Peninsula by 
Thu afternoon. High pressure edges into the Central Aleutians by 
Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-221345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
337 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-221345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
337 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.WED...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft building to 21 to 28
ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 23 to 35 ft.  and rain
showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-221345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
337 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 33 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind up to 10 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-221345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
337 PM AKST Tue Nov 21 2017

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft building to 16 to 24
ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Rain showers
and snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind up to 10 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

503 
FZAK62 PAFC 221301
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
401 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-230215-
401 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 983 mb low at 58N 180E moves to 60N 164W at 968 mb Thu morning then
shifts south and moves to 55N 147W at 978 mb. The associated 
front pushes across the Bering and over the Alaska Peninsula by 
Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-230215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
401 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ412-230215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
401 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft 
building to 20 to 27 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 23 to 34 ft. 
Snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 35 to 50 kt becoming W 25 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Gusts to 65 kt in the morning. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SUN...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-230215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
401 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 18 to 29 ft. 
Snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-230215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
401 AM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 to 60 kt. Gusts to 75 kt. Seas 20 to 34 ft. 
Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

091 
FZAK62 PAFC 230023
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
323 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-231345-
323 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 969 mb low at 61N 171W dives to 52N 151W at 983 mb Thu night 
then merges with a 978 mb low in the Southern Gulf of Alaska for 
Fri afternoon. The associated front pushes across the Alaska 
Peninsula through Fri afternoon. A new front edges over the 
Western Aleutians by Fri afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-231345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
323 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ412-231345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
323 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 23 to 34 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 35 to 50 kt becoming W 25 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 17 to 32 ft subsiding to 14 to 22 ft in the 
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-231345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
323 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas
9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-231345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
323 PM AKST Wed Nov 22 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.THU...NW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft.  and rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

474 
FZAK62 PAFC 231243
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-240200-
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 969 mb low at 60N 162W will move to 57N 158W at 979 mb by this
afternoon, then it will move into the western Gulf at 984 mb this 
evening. A front pushing into the western Aleutians Fri morning 
will continue east to arrive in the eastern Aleutians by Sat 
morning.

$$

PKZ411-240200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-240200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 to 50 kt becoming W 25 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt becoming 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-240200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 to 45 kt becoming W 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft subsiding to 7 to
12 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-240200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 AM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 to 55 kt diminishing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Gusts to 75 kt through this morning. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

187 
FZAK62 PAFC 240034
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-241400-
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 986 mb low at 55N 157W swings across the Northern Pacific 
through Sat afternoon. High pressure moves to the Eastern Bering 
by Sat morning. A 977 mb Russian Far East low extends a front 
over the Bering to a 984 mb low near 56N 171W and a 987 mb low 
around 50N 178W that form Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-241400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-241400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft subsiding to 11 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt becoming 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-241400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft subsiding to 8 to
12 ft after midnight.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-241400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
334 PM AKST Thu Nov 23 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
417 PM AKST Mon Nov 20 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A high amplitude ridge centered over the eastern Bering Sea is
building eastward toward mainland Alaska. Subsidence with the
ridge combined with deep offshore flow is resulting in a bluebird
day across most of Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. A deep and
mature vertically stacked low over the southern Gulf is exiting
southward toward the Northeast Pacific, with snow falling on
Kodiak Island along the occluded front. Strong gap winds continue
on the back side of the low along the Alaska Peninsula, though
with the upper jet streak now exiting to the south and pressure
gradients beginning to slacken, winds are showing a diminishing
trend. More localized winds are being observed over Southcentral
due to tight pressure gradients and a little bit of cold
advection. Aside from the typical coastal gap winds, the strongest
winds are being observed in the Matanuska Valley and Valdez area.
This is due to the fact that deeper colder air naturally settles
into the Copper River Basin and these are two of the most
significant gaps under which it can escape.

Out to the west of the upper ridge, a short-wave trough and
surface low are tracking northward across the northwest Bering
with a frontal system trailing to the south. This frontal system
is progressing eastward into the central Bering and Aleutians.
With a significant northward surge of warm air on the west side of
the ridge temperatures have warmed into the 40s to 50s along the
western to central Aleutians and precipitation is falling as
rain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in excellent agreement with handling of major features
through Tuesday night and forecast confidence is high. Differences
do develop with track of a deepening low across the Bering Sea on
Wednesday and this will be discussed in the Long Term Discussion
below.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The only challenge for this TAF period is determining when
northerly winds will die down. Expect this to happen quickly as
the sun sets and the upper ridge builds in, which should promote
decoupling of the boundary layer.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Dry offshore flow continues across Southcentral through Tuesday
afternoon. Gusty flow tapers off late tonight as the center of
the ridge shifts across the Aleutian Range to the Kenai Peninsula.
With skies clearing through this evening and winds slackening
overnight temperatures are expected to drop considerably early
Tuesday morning, approximately 10 degrees colder than this
morning's low temperatures. Steep temperature inversions just off
the surface may bring localized patchy fog along the Cook Inlet.

The next front moves quickly across Tuesday into early Wednesday.
The boundary moves across the Aleutian and western Alaska Ranges
Tuesday morning with snow developing late Tuesday morning for
Kodiak Island. By late Tuesday afternoon or early evening the
front crosses over the Susitna Valley bringing snow to the Kenai,
Anchorage area and the Matanuska Valley. Only light amounts of
snow are expected with accumulations up to one inch. As this front
continues east across the Copper River, Prince William Sound and
central Gulf it rapidly diminishes as the upper level short wave
shears apart when running into the amplifying ridge along the
Alcan border. Another transient ridge builds across Southcentral
behind the front, however it is short lived as the next front
approaches late Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A very progressive pattern will be on tap this forecast package. At
the onset of the forecast period, there will be weak ridging
extending from southwest AK to the AKPEN with a mature low
looming upstream. With a pool of cold air inland, the thermal
gradient will keep breezy winds over the AKPEN and in the
adjacent waters to the south this evening. As the aforementioned
low pushes into western Alaska expect another round of
precipitation. Winds will be southerly ahead of the front which
will result in a tongue of warm air and a mixed mode of wintry
precipitation. In the wake of the frontal passage the snow level
will plummet to the surface and the light snow will spread
eastward through the day. Accumulations will range from 1-3
inches. The models ping into a fast moving re-enforcing shortwave
which will push across the area Wednesday morning bringing a quick
shot of showers. A more organized storm is anticipated later
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The pressure gradient between the low in the Gulf of Alaska and
the ridge over the AKPEN will result in gusty winds this evening
for portions of the AKPEN. A frontal boundary extending from
northeast Russia to Attu Island will continue to move eastward
bringing unsettled conditions to the Bering tonight and into
Tuesday morning. A second system will approach the region from
the north Pacific and push northeast across Shemya. This system
will continue to deepen as it treks toward the Pribilof Islands.
Expecting another round enhanced winds, rough seas and
precipitation from this storm.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The big storm of interest on Day 3 starts in the western Bering,
rapidly developing as it crosses the northern Bering Sea towards
the Kuskokwim Delta coast. As it approaches the coast, some warm
air will intrude with the southerly winds on the east side of the
low, but this system is not expected to be nearly as warm as the
last one and precipitation will likely remain all snow for the
west coast. Combined with strong winds ahead of the front, this
puts a risk for blowing snow reducing visibility along the West
Coast through Wednesday afternoon. The other concern with this
storm is the effect of the storm force westerly and northwesterly
winds on the backside of the front, which will whip up high seas
as well. The low pressure system isn't expected to remain in the
area long enough to cause coastal flooding in the Kuskokwim Delta
and Bristol Bay, but areas north of Dillingham that are prone to
erosion may see some impacts on Tuesday during the day. Behind the
low, strong northwesterly winds are expected to blast through the
Pribilofs and hit the northern side of the AK Pen Wednesday night
and Thursday. This may cause erosion problems and high winds
through gap areas for the AK Pen as well.

So far, model consistency and agreement on the West Coast storm
has been fairly good, although the latest version of the NAM pulls
the storm further inland. Since this solution seems to be an
outlier, the GFS/EC solution was preferred for the storm track.
Once the low crosses the AK Pen on Thursday, model solutions begin
to vary a bit more on where the low center will appear or reform
in the Gulf of Alaska. Regardless, it looks like it will stay far
enough south that the forecast challenge will be northerly gap
winds, including some stronger NE winds and higher seas for Cook
Inlet and along the north Gulf Coast.

In good news, behind this low pressure system, a ridge of high
pressure enters from the west, meaning that Thursday through
Saturday should be clear and cold for most of the state. The next
system to impact the Alaska region is a low that is forecast to
move northward along the Kamchatka Peninsula, pushing a front
through the Aleutians on Sunday. After the Sunday time frame,
model uncertainty becomes much higher, but for now, it looks like
a ridge will push storms approaching from the west away from the
mainland and into the Gulf of AK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 127 130-132 150 173 175-178 180-185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
LONG TERM...LF