Gale Warning 625, NWS Anchorage, AK

220 
FZAK51 PAFC 160050
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-161415-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1008 mb low 170 nm southeast of Sand Point will exit the 
southwestern Gulf by Thu morning. On Thu morning...a 1004 mb low 
develops 75 nm southwest of Middleton Island then moves to 90 nm 
southeast of Middleton Island at 990 mb Thu evening. The low will 
then track into the southeastern Gulf at 987 mb through Fri evening.

$$

PKZ119-161415-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
N gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River Delta in the evening. 
Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-161415-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-161415-
Resurrection Bay-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Seward in the evening. 
Seas 2 ft. Freezing Spray
.THU...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-161415-
Prince William Sound-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the evening. 
Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-161415-
Port Valdez-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ127-161415-
Valdez Narrows-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-161415-
Valdez Arm-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-161415-
Passage Canal-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier in the evening. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-161415-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT.

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing Spray.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Heavy Freezing spray along
the coast.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-161415-
Barren Islands East-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-161415-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. 
N of Dangerous Cape, W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-161415-
Chiniak Bay-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-161415-
Marmot Bay-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 40 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-161415-
Shelikof Strait-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of western bays and 
passes. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ139-161415-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ140-161415-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ141-161415-
Kachemak Bay-
350 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

913 
FZAK51 PAFC 161236
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-170115-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1004 mb low 50 nm southeast of Seward moves to 90 nm southwest 
of Yakutat at 988 mb Thu night. The low then moves to 200 nm south
of Yakutat at 995 mb Fri night. A front approaches the western 
Gulf Fri night.

$$

PKZ119-170115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas
9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-170115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-170115-
Resurrection Bay-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-170115-
Prince William Sound-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-170115-
Port Valdez-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts to
30 kts after midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ127-170115-
Valdez Narrows-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt this morning. Seas 3 ft. 
Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-170115-
Valdez Arm-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-170115-
Passage Canal-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind increasing to 20 kt by afternoon. Gusts to 30 near 
Whittier. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-170115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-170115-
Barren Islands East-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ132-170115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-170115-
Chiniak Bay-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-170115-
Marmot Bay-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-170115-
Shelikof Strait-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kts through bays and passes. Seas
12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 50 kt through bays and passes. Seas 
10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ139-170115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ140-170115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ141-170115-
Kachemak Bay-
336 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

There has been little change with the upper level pattern over the
past 24 hours as a deep trough remains over eastern Alaska and the
Yukon with a ridge axis over the eastern Bering Sea/Southwest
Alaska. Farther west, there is an upper trough over the far
western Bering Sea and an associated warm front over the central
Bering Sea. Northerly flow aloft and cold air packing along the
mountains continues to push air mass through mountain gaps with
favored locations like the Matanuska Valley, Valdez/Thompson
Pass, and Eastern Turnagain Arm and Seward. Several peak gusts
this morning have been at or above 50 knots both through Thompson
Pass/Valdez and the Matanuska Valley.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in excellent agreement with the large scale general
pattern through Saturday. They have also come into very good
agreement with an elongated shortwave trough which is expected to
move through Southwest Alaska Wednesday before tracking east into
Southcentral Wednesday night into Thursday. However, there are
some slight differences with the orientation/strength of the
upper trough with the NAM, Canadian Regional and GFS favoring a
slightly stronger/slower upper trough progression whereas the
ECMWF is weaker/faster. This has an impact on snowfall potential
across inland areas of Southcentral including Anchorage. For this
forecast, a blend of all model solutions is favored which keep in
light snowfall accumulation potential in the forecast for Thursday
morning.

Later in the extended period forecast, much model uncertainty
remains with a potential strong low which could impact all of
Southern Alaska late weekend (see extended forecast discussion
for more details).

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Gusty north winds will persist through tonight then become
light and variable Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are expected
to persist through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wed and
Thu)...
Offshore winds will slowly taper off as eyes shift towards snow
potential across the area Thu morning. First off, the wind event
has likely peaked or is peaking and should continue to taper off
through the overnight into Wed morning. However, there will still
be some rather gusty winds through the typical spots like the
Matanuska Valley, Whittier, and Valdez tonight. Blowing dust will
also continue with these winds, especially through the Copper
River Delta and the Matanuska Valley.

After this, attention shifts to a potential quick shot of snow for
early Thu morning. Models continue to show a progressive west-east
moving front coming from SW AK across the AK Range and into
Southcentral. There is still some uncertainty with this system as
models have shown a couple variations that would lend to slower
timing and/or varying snow amounts across the area. For this
forecast package, we have trended things toward a bit slower
timing (Thu early to mid morning across Anchorage) and a bit
higher snow amounts. As the front sweeps across the area and into
the Copper River Basin, it looks like the best chance for a couple
of inches will be along the Anchorage Hillside and toward Gulkana.
This system seems very reminiscent of the snow that fell across
the Cook Inlet on the 21st of Oct dropping anywhere from 1 to 3
inches. Thursday morning commuters should monitor the forecast
closely.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A cold front currently located just west of the coast late this
afternoon will continue to move inland tonight. A weak surface low
will develop along this front in the Bristol Bay region. However,
model consensus is for an offshore flow to be maintained, allowing
colder air to continue to slowly advance towards the coast from
inland locations. Ahead of this front, a wedge of warmer air in a
southwest flow aloft will move over a relatively shallow layer of
colder air below it along the Southwest Alaska coast.

While this is not the most ideal setup for freezing rain with ice
accumulations, some brief periods of freezing rain are expected
to develop. As the front crosses the region, warmer air from the
waters will make more of a push inland where precipitation will
change to more of a rain/snow mix. For locations east of an Aniak
to King Salmon line, look for precipitation type to be predominately
snow, where 2 to 5 inches may accumulate. Lighter snow amounts
will occur farther west due to the mixed bag of wintry precipitation.

As the front reaches the Alaska Range by Thursday morning, an
upper-level disturbance will dive southeast across the region
shortly after frontal passage, with additionally showery type
precipitation developing area-wide and gusty winds towards the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The main focus looks to be increasing wind speeds across the
eastern Bering Sea, with pretty decent gap wind development south
of the AKPEN following frontal passage. Speaking of this front,
the latest observations had it along a line from just west of
Nunivak Island to west of Dutch Harbor late this afternoon. This
feature will continue its eastward journey over the next 36 hours,
clearing the area by early Thursday morning. Brisk northwesterly
winds will develop with gale force winds very likely Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning. Significant gap wind gusts will
develop south of the peninsula, with communities along it seeing
gusts near 55 mph.

Another disturbance will also dive southeast across northern and
eastern portions of the Bering behind the initial front, with gale
force winds expected along northwestern and northern portions of
the Bering Sea Wednesday night into Thursday as well.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Yet another outflow event will develop along the North Gulf Coast
on Friday as an Eastern Gulf low intensifies and weak ridging
begins to move through the Mainland from the Bering. Just ahead of
this ridge, a shortwave will quickly push through the Southwest
coast, bringing light accumulations to many areas of Thursday,
which may also produce areas of blowing snow as gusty
northwesterly winds quickly follow it.

Certainty in the forecast then begins to quickly break down this
weekend as significant spread in the track of a rapidly deepening
low moves from the Bering into either the Gulf or North Pacific
(depending on which model guidance you look at). The EC has been
the most consistent with this low, bringing a rapidly deepening
low into the central Gulf by Sunday with widespread snow and wind
to the Southern Mainland. The GFS on the other hand was very
sporadic overnight, but is beginning to becoming more consistent
in a track much further to the south, providing only a glancing
blow of winds to the gulf and little if any precipitation to the
Southern Mainland. Due to this large spread in the low track and
expected impacts, little if any change is being made to the
extended forecast today awaiting better model consensus. This is a
system that bears watching however, as trends in either direction
will result in significant changes to the weekends forecast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 125 127 150 155 172 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MSO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...DEK