Gale Warning 573, NWS Anchorage, AK

875 
FZAK62 PAFC 151252
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160245-
352 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the eastern Aleutians moves to the Alaska Peninsula Wed
night. A second front approaches the western Aleutians Thu afternoon
and remains nearly in place through Thu night.

$$

PKZ411-160245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
352 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
352 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 27 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
352 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
352 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 11 to 15
ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.

$$

282 
FZAK62 PAFC 160029
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
329 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-161415-
329 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the Alaska Peninsula moves southeast and dissipates
by early Thu morning. A second front moves into the western 
Aleutians Thu morning, spreading into the western Bering through 
Fri evening.

$$

PKZ411-161415-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
329 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-161415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
329 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 27 ft.
.MON...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-161415-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
329 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-161415-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
329 PM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

851 
FZAK62 PAFC 161245
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170200-
345 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front over the Alaska Peninsula moves inland and dissipates Thu
night. A second front approaches the western Aleutians Thu 
afternoon and advances eastward across the Bering through Fri 
night.

$$

PKZ411-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
345 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

.TODAY...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
345 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft.
.MON...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
345 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Patchy fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
345 AM AKST Thu Nov 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 28 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A highly amplified upper level ridge remains entrenched over the
eastern Bering Sea this morning, yielding clear skies and dry
offshore flow across the southern mainland. A strong surface
pressure gradient and cold air filtering out of the interior
continue to support strong outflow winds through favored gap flow
areas along the Gulf Coast. Favorable upper level support is also
present in the form of a north-south oriented 125 kt jet streak
at 300 mb. Out west, a weak front associated with a Kamchatka low
is moving slowly eastward through the central Bering, bringing
rain to the Pribilofs and portions of the Aleutian chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in excellent short term agreement as the stout ridge
shifts eastward across the mainland over the course of the next
two days. predominantly utilized Hi-Res NAM guidance to better
capture localized wind effects given the strong overall consensus.
A little more spread begins to develop by Wednesday night as an
upper level trough approaches from the west and brings the next
chance of snow for Southcentral AK, however these differences are
still relatively minor at this point, allowing for a blend of NAM
and GFS guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Gusty north winds will persist through late Tuesday
morning before the surface pressure gradient begins to weaken and
the most favorable upper level support moves off to the east.
Lighter winds and VFR conditions will then prevail through
Thursday evening. Fog will be possible at the terminal beginning
early Wednesday morning as winds subside and a ridge begins to
build in from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...today
through Wednesday night...

Favorable upper support along with strong surface pressure/temperature
gradients will continue strong outflow/gap winds through today, especially
along the North Gulf Coast. Support for these flows wane overnight,
so should see a corresponding decrease in winds Wednesday. Decreasing
winds overnight combined with increased subsidence under the upper
ridge may lead to some patchy fog development across the Anchorage
Bowl, Knik Arm, and Western Kenai Peninsula Wednesday morning. A
fast eastward moving weather front on Wednesday brings increased
chances of snow to Southcentral Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A ridge keeps a relatively quiet pattern across the region through
this afternoon. The next front moves into the Kuskokwim Delta this
evening. Precipitation along the coast may start out as snow,
however a warmer maritime air mass nudges inland and will quickly
change snow over to rain. Warm air gliding over the cold pool
across the southwest may bring light freezing rain to areas just
inland on Wednesday. Otherwise, snow develops along the boundary
bringing up to two inches of fresh snow across the region through
Wednesday night. The front, currently progged to reach the Alaska
and Aleutian Ranges Wednesday evening, is expected to be followed
by another fast moving front which moves to the west coast
Thursday morning. The speed of this second system is still
uncertain, however models are trending toward drier conditions on
Friday with the next Bering ridge shifting inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
Low pressure over Kamchatka drives a front across the central and
eastern Bering today and tonight spreading rain and gusty winds
as the boundary passes over the area. Another strong ridge builds
in its wake from the North Pacific, however an unsettled weather
pattern continues through the end of the week as low pressure
races north and rounds the periphery of the ridge. Expect frequent
wind gusts and directional changes over the next several days as
the synoptic pattern remains progressive.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period forecast Thursday afternoon, a
shortwave trough is expected to start its journey across the
southern Mainland from the eastern Bering and moving across the
area through Thursday night. Whereas to the west over the Bering
Sea and Aleutians, an upper level ridge will continue to amplify
over much of the area through Friday. The above mentioned upper
trough will begin to shear out as it moves inland across Southwest
Alaska, but it should have enough moisture to squeeze out some
snow over Southcentral on Thursday. This trough will quickly be
followed by another low amplitude shortwave trough in northwest
flow which should bring back more dry and cold northerly flow to
Southern Alaska Friday into Saturday. This will be a brief repeat
of the offshore flow pattern we have seen the past week or so.

By late Saturday into Sunday, the global models continue to hint
at a potent shortwave trough crossing over the Bering Sea and
moving over top the semi-permanent high pressure ridge over the
Bering. This potential storm could be a significant weather maker
for Southern Alaska for the weekend, but this is still quite a
ways out to get into specifics, or even if it will happen.
Currently the GFS model is keeping the system further west,
tracking through the eastern Bering/Aleutians and AKPen, then into
the north Pacific. On the other hand, the ECMWF is showing this
system tracking through the southern Mainland and into the Gulf,
which would have a much bigger impact over the area. With the
given differences confidence remains low in either solution, so we
will continue to monitor this potentially impactful system over
the coming days.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 126 127 128 130 131 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...KVP