Gale Warning 623, NWS Anchorage, AK

062 
FZAK51 PAFC 150046
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

Updated Zone 125 

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-151345-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1009 mb low 40 nm west of Seldovia Wed afternoon moves to 50 nm
west of Middleton Island Thu afternoon at 993mb. A second 1009 mb
low 80 nm southwest of Akhiok Wed afternoon moves to 440 south of
Akhiok at 1007mb.

$$

PKZ119-151345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River Delta
diminishing through the day. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 4 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-151345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-151345-
Resurrection Bay-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
5 ft.  Freezing spray. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-151345-
Prince William Sound-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of bays and passes. Seas
4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-151345-
Port Valdez-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 55 kt diminishing after
midnight. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ127-151345-
Valdez Narrows-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt diminishing after
midnight. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-151345-
Valdez Arm-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt diminishing after
midnight. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-151345-
Passage Canal-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier.  Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-151345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 8 ft after midnight. 
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-151345-
Barren Islands East-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-151345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. N of
Dangerous Cape, NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-151345-
Chiniak Bay-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-151345-
Marmot Bay-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-151345-
Shelikof Strait-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt through bays and passes
in the evening. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-151345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ140-151345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Freezing spray. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-151345-
Kachemak Bay-
346 PM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt towards Cook Inlet in
the evening. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

184 
FZAK51 PAFC 151246
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-160215-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1009 mb low 55 nm southwest of Seward Wed afternoon moves to 
85 nm southeast of Middleton Island Thu night at 987 mb. A second
1008 mb low 140 nm southwest of Sitkinak Wed afternoon moves
southeast and exits the Gulf Thu night. 

$$

PKZ119-160215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of the Copper River Delta
this morning. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Gusts to 35 kt out of the Copper River Delta in the evening. Seas 4 
ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-160215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt this morning. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-160215-
Resurrection Bay-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in 
the morning.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-160215-
Prince William Sound-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-160215-
Port Valdez-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 30 kt this morning. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ127-160215-
Valdez Narrows-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-160215-
Valdez Arm-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-160215-
Passage Canal-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
30 kt near Whittier this morning. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-160215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 11 ft after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ131-160215-
Barren Islands East-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-160215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. N of
Dangerous Cape, W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-160215-
Chiniak Bay-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-160215-
Marmot Bay-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-160215-
Shelikof Strait-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-160215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ140-160215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ141-160215-
Kachemak Bay-
346 AM AKST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 AM AKST Tue Nov 14 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A highly amplified upper level ridge remains entrenched over the
eastern Bering Sea this morning, yielding clear skies and dry
offshore flow across the southern mainland. A strong surface
pressure gradient and cold air filtering out of the interior
continue to support strong outflow winds through favored gap flow
areas along the Gulf Coast. Favorable upper level support is also
present in the form of a north-south oriented 125 kt jet streak
at 300 mb. Out west, a weak front associated with a Kamchatka low
is moving slowly eastward through the central Bering, bringing
rain to the Pribilofs and portions of the Aleutian chain.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in excellent short term agreement as the stout ridge
shifts eastward across the mainland over the course of the next
two days. predominantly utilized Hi-Res NAM guidance to better
capture localized wind effects given the strong overall consensus.
A little more spread begins to develop by Wednesday night as an
upper level trough approaches from the west and brings the next
chance of snow for Southcentral AK, however these differences are
still relatively minor at this point, allowing for a blend of NAM
and GFS guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Gusty north winds will persist through late Tuesday
morning before the surface pressure gradient begins to weaken and
the most favorable upper level support moves off to the east.
Lighter winds and VFR conditions will then prevail through
Thursday evening. Fog will be possible at the terminal beginning
early Wednesday morning as winds subside and a ridge begins to
build in from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...today
through Wednesday night...

Favorable upper support along with strong surface pressure/temperature
gradients will continue strong outflow/gap winds through today, especially
along the North Gulf Coast. Support for these flows wane overnight,
so should see a corresponding decrease in winds Wednesday. Decreasing
winds overnight combined with increased subsidence under the upper
ridge may lead to some patchy fog development across the Anchorage
Bowl, Knik Arm, and Western Kenai Peninsula Wednesday morning. A
fast eastward moving weather front on Wednesday brings increased
chances of snow to Southcentral Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A ridge keeps a relatively quiet pattern across the region through
this afternoon. The next front moves into the Kuskokwim Delta this
evening. Precipitation along the coast may start out as snow,
however a warmer maritime air mass nudges inland and will quickly
change snow over to rain. Warm air gliding over the cold pool
across the southwest may bring light freezing rain to areas just
inland on Wednesday. Otherwise, snow develops along the boundary
bringing up to two inches of fresh snow across the region through
Wednesday night. The front, currently progged to reach the Alaska
and Aleutian Ranges Wednesday evening, is expected to be followed
by another fast moving front which moves to the west coast
Thursday morning. The speed of this second system is still
uncertain, however models are trending toward drier conditions on
Friday with the next Bering ridge shifting inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
Low pressure over Kamchatka drives a front across the central and
eastern Bering today and tonight spreading rain and gusty winds
as the boundary passes over the area. Another strong ridge builds
in its wake from the North Pacific, however an unsettled weather
pattern continues through the end of the week as low pressure
races north and rounds the periphery of the ridge. Expect frequent
wind gusts and directional changes over the next several days as
the synoptic pattern remains progressive.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the extended period forecast Thursday afternoon, a
shortwave trough is expected to start its journey across the
southern Mainland from the eastern Bering and moving across the
area through Thursday night. Whereas to the west over the Bering
Sea and Aleutians, an upper level ridge will continue to amplify
over much of the area through Friday. The above mentioned upper
trough will begin to shear out as it moves inland across Southwest
Alaska, but it should have enough moisture to squeeze out some
snow over Southcentral on Thursday. This trough will quickly be
followed by another low amplitude shortwave trough in northwest
flow which should bring back more dry and cold northerly flow to
Southern Alaska Friday into Saturday. This will be a brief repeat
of the offshore flow pattern we have seen the past week or so.

By late Saturday into Sunday, the global models continue to hint
at a potent shortwave trough crossing over the Bering Sea and
moving over top the semi-permanent high pressure ridge over the
Bering. This potential storm could be a significant weather maker
for Southern Alaska for the weekend, but this is still quite a
ways out to get into specifics, or even if it will happen.
Currently the GFS model is keeping the system further west,
tracking through the eastern Bering/Aleutians and AKPen, then into
the north Pacific. On the other hand, the ECMWF is showing this
system tracking through the southern Mainland and into the Gulf,
which would have a much bigger impact over the area. With the
given differences confidence remains low in either solution, so we
will continue to monitor this potentially impactful system over
the coming days.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales 126 127 128 130 131 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...KVP