Gale Warning 353, NWS Anchorage, AK

885 
FZAK51 PAFC 071130
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-080045-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 mb low 50 nm east of Sitkinak Island moves to 125 nm
southeast of Chirikof Island at 997 mb this afternoon...then 
moves into the North Pacific. A trough of low pressure develops 
over the central Gulf tonight and persists through Thu night.

$$

PKZ119-080045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-080045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-080045-
Resurrection Bay-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming variable wind less than 10 kt by late
morning. Seas 4 ft. Higher winds and seas S of Caines Head. Rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head.
Widespread rain showers.
.THU...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-080045-
Prince William Sound-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-080045-
Port Valdez-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-080045-
Valdez Narrows-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-080045-
Valdez Arm-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-080045-
Passage Canal-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-080045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-080045-
Barren Islands East-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-080045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-080045-
Chiniak Bay-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft subsiding to 1 ft after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-080045-
Marmot Bay-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft after
midnight.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-080045-
Shelikof Strait-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT through fri...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-080045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-080045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-080045-
Kachemak Bay-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
836 AM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level closed low is parked near 53N 150W, and is
vertically stacked through the atmosphere. This is reflected at
the surface with a 985 mb gale force low near 53N 152W. Meanwhile,
this synoptic feature has a shortwave extending northward through
the Kodiak Island area into the Bristol Bay interior this
morning. The satellite imagery is showing a nice swath of moisture
with this shortwave through the aforementioned region. Looking
over the Gulf the 300 mb has a southeasterly 100 knot jet streak
positioned over the central to eastern Gulf.

The upper level closed high pressure has moved slightly northward
over the Eastern Siberian region with associated ridges extending
southward into the Pribilof Islands, and eastward into the western
Brooks Range. This is producing stable conditions with stratus,
patchy fog in the central/northern Bering Sea. Meanwhile, a weak
993 mb low pressure system is located just west of Shemya with an
associated front draped through the Western Aleutians. This is
producing southeasterly small craft advisory winds through the
western Bering this morning, and gale force westerly winds on
Pacific side of the Western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in decent agreement with the GFS/NAM being the
preferred models of choice through the short term. The ECMWF
continues to be the outlier with the low just south of Kodiak
Island. The ECMWF keeps this system on a faster track as it moves
from east to west across the southeastern Gulf Wednesday morning.
The forecast confidence remains average as we head into the
midweek time-frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will continue with some showers developing
along the mountains this afternoon. Look for the PANC winds to
become gusty by late afternoon today before diminishing by early
Wednesday morning. The Turnagain Arm winds look to continue with
winds out of the southeasterly direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The thermal trough is setting up again for Wednesday for the
lower Kuskokwim Valley extending through the Kuskokwim/Ahklun
Mountains. This feature coupled with mostly sunny skies, and
latent heat release combined with a westward progression of an
upper level shortwave will kick-off convective activity for
Wednesday afternoon through the early evening hours for the
Southwest Alaska region. Therefore, a decent amount of lightening
will be seen through the aforementioned region. The storm motion
will be from east to west direction.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A developing low over the southeast Gulf of Alaska will race
northeast into the north central Gulf this afternoon and then to
Kodiak Island Tuesday night. A decent batch of moisture will reach
the Gulf coast and Kodiak Island early this evening. With strong
east-southeast flow aloft, most of the rain will fall along the
coast and coastal mountains, with just some isolated showers
making it inland. The low will then move well south of Kodiak on
Wednesday. Southeast flow aloft will continue Wednesday and
Thursday, with several pulses of moisture working their way into
south central Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper low centered south of Kodiak Island will keep an
easterly flow pattern aloft through Wednesday night. Today, expect
isolated to scattered rain showers, but without sufficient
instability or forcing for ascent, no thunderstorms are expected.
Temperatures should be cooler today as well as the thermal trough
that was in place yesterday has drifted north and weakened.
Steadier rain will impact parts of the Alaska Peninsula and
eastern Bristol Bay region near the Alaska Range as a low moves
over the area Tonight and Wednesday morning. Otherwise, most other
areas will see efficient downslope drying.

A weak thermal trough will form Wednesday across the Kuskokwim
Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley which will help support isolated
thunderstorms. Otherwise, just expect mostly dry weather elsewhere
with sporadic isolated to scattered rain showers as upper level
disturbances move through the broader flow. Expect temperatures to
be slightly above normal as easterly winds keep the overall
airmass drier and warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Broad high pressure will dominate most of the Central and Eastern
Bering Sea while a low over the Western Aleutians strengthens
into a 30 knot cyclone through Wednesday. Expect fog and low
stratus to become more established by tonight as high pressure
strengthens. A quick moving low will skirt over the far Eastern
Aleutians tonight and Wednesday morning, bringing some light rain
and a quick shot of gusty north to east winds.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
The pattern moving into the long term has a blocking high over
northern Alaska with a low south of the Gulf of Alaska. Another
upper level low will be over the far western Bering that will
track east staying just south of the Aleutians through the week.
Meanwhile, the high and low near the mainland will mostly stay in
place into late next week bringing moist, southeast flow to the
southern mainland. Most of the rain will stay along the coast with
afternoon showers for inland locations. On Thursday this pattern
will break down making way for the western low to move near the
Alaska Peninsula on Friday. However, there is disagreement with
where this low will end up with some models bringing it north
towards the Bristol Bay area while others stay south of the Alaska
Peninsula.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 130 131 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...EN