Gale Warning 352, NWS Anchorage, AK

210 
FZAK51 PAFC 062347
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-071300-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 991 mb low 240 nm southeast of Middleton Island will strengthen
to 989 mb as it moves to 80 nm southeast of Kodiak late tonight. 
This low will then gradually weaken to 994 mb as it moves to 90 nm
south of Sitkinak Wed afternoon before moving south into the 
Pacific Ocean Wed evening.

$$

PKZ119-071300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 20 kt towards morning. Seas 17 
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-071300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-071300-
Resurrection Bay-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt towards morning. Seas 3 ft.
Higher winds and seas S of Caines Head. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher winds and seas S of 
Caines Head. Rain showers.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-071300-
Prince William Sound-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming NE 25 kt after
midnight. Gusts to 35 kt near Hinchinbrook entrance after midnight.
Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-071300-
Port Valdez-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-071300-
Valdez Narrows-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-071300-
Valdez Arm-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-071300-
Passage Canal-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-071300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 35 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft 
building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-071300-
Barren Islands East-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-071300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. South of
Dangerous Cape, NE wind 20 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-071300-
Chiniak Bay-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 9 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft subsiding to 1 ft after midnight.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-071300-
Marmot Bay-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 12 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.WED...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft after
midnight.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-071300-
Shelikof Strait-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-071300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8 
ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-071300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft 
after midnight.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-071300-
Kachemak Bay-
347 PM AKDT Tue Jun 6 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 
ft. Rain showers.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

885 
FZAK51 PAFC 071130
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-080045-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 mb low 50 nm east of Sitkinak Island moves to 125 nm
southeast of Chirikof Island at 997 mb this afternoon...then 
moves into the North Pacific. A trough of low pressure develops 
over the central Gulf tonight and persists through Thu night.

$$

PKZ119-080045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-080045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-080045-
Resurrection Bay-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming variable wind less than 10 kt by late
morning. Seas 4 ft. Higher winds and seas S of Caines Head. Rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head.
Widespread rain showers.
.THU...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-080045-
Prince William Sound-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-080045-
Port Valdez-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-080045-
Valdez Narrows-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-080045-
Valdez Arm-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-080045-
Passage Canal-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.THU...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-080045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ131-080045-
Barren Islands East-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-080045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-080045-
Chiniak Bay-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft subsiding to 1 ft after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-080045-
Marmot Bay-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft after
midnight.
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-080045-
Shelikof Strait-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT through fri...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-080045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin island to Point Bede-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-080045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-080045-
Kachemak Bay-
330 AM AKDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
546 PM AKDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper-level low is spinning over the Gulf of Alaska. The
Pacific jet stream is just south of the Aleutian Chain with a
speed max of 165 knots. As the jet rounds the south side of the
Gulf low, a southerly flow moves over the eastern Gulf around 65
knots. This pattern is moving another wave of moist air from the
Gulf toward Southern Alaska today while continuing the north and easterly
flow that is currently driving this morning's wet and cloudy
experience along with convection in southwest Alaska.

An upper-level high sits near Saint Lawrence Island. This ridge is
just strong enough to keep stable weather with stratus and fog
over parts of the Bering Sea. Parts of the Alaska Peninsula began
the day with a clear sky... quite a treat.

At the surface, a thermal trough lies north of the Alaska Range.
This feature includes a weak thermal Low slowly moving southwest
from the upper Kuskokwim Valley. Convection began early over this
region this morning. The combination of the thermal trough and low,
combined with the easterly flow, warm temperatures and decent
instability will help to inspire convection this afternoon and
evening west of the Alaska Range and especially over the
Kilbuck/Ahklun Mountains.

A look upstream shows that a new wave is developing over the
Western Alaska range midday while yet another wave is developing
over the Interior.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are similar in timing and placement of the main
synoptic features through Tuesday afternoon. After this point,
solutions diverge on placement of the next Gulf low nearing
Kodiak Island and the strength of a ridge building over the
Aleutians.

For Southcentral and Prince William Sound, the NAM was the
preferred model as it seemed to handle a developing triple-point
more effectively.

In Southwest and the Aleutians, a general blend of models was
used.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will prevail. With more of an easterly flow
developing from present northeasterly conditions, drier weather
should be the result. However, a few showers can't be ruled out
entirely.

.FIRE WEATHER...
In the Kuskokwim Delta... High temperatures in the the upper 70s
combined with northeasterly winds up to 20 miles-per-hour and
relative humidity in the 25 percent range led to the issuance of
the season's first Red Flag Warning.

For the Kuskokwim Valley in general...an increasing amount of
lightning mainly near the mountains has been seen in the region in
recent days. With today's convective indices looking more favorable
for thunderstorms and lightning, the risk for weather to continue
to enhance fire danger is certainly present. In addition to the
new starts due to the abundant lightning, outflow winds from the
thunderstorms are another concern.

Fire weather conditions will moderate somewhat tomorrow with
increased cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures however,
thunderstorms will be a concern again over the Kuskokwim Delta on
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An area of low pressure over the southern Gulf of Alaska will
continue to push an occluded frontal boundary toward the northern
gulf coast which will help upslope rainfall to continue along the
coast. At the same time, a sharp upper level trough located just
east of the Cook Inlet region will continue to shift westward this
afternoon and evening which will allow the rainfall over Anchorage
and the Kenai Peninsula to shift westward. One last shot at
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon in vicinity of the
Alaska Range over the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley but
will lack the areal coverage over the past few days as cloud cover
has limited the amount of destabilization this afternoon.

A triple point low will develop over the eastern Gulf of Alaska
Tuesday afternoon and pivot over the northern gulf by Tuesday
evening. This will help bring another slug of moisture to the
northern gulf coast but the vast majority of the rainfall will
upslope along the coastal mountains and struggle to move further
inland. Winds across Prince William Sound and the northern gulf
will be quite strong on tuesday with 20 to 35 kt winds sustained
with gusts upward to 45 kt through Hinchinbrook entrance but will
subside significantly on Wednesday. Convective potential looks
rather slim as increased cloud cover will prevent any significant
diurnal destabilization but a few showers in the afternoon will
remain possible across interior locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Rather impressive instability across Southwest Alaska associated
with the thermal trough stretching across the Kuskokwim Valley,
Kuskokwim Delta and western Greater Bristol Bay area is beginning
to trigger isolated to scattered thunderstorms as warm, northerly
flow pushes across the area this afternoon. Currently, notably
stronger thunderstorms likely containing hail are forming along
the Kilbuck Mountains where there appears to shear induced by the
leading edge of northerly flow hits the mountains. Thunderstorms
will continue to fire off through the afternoon and evening with
the most abundant lightning likely to be centered over the Kilbuck
and Ahklun Mountains as well as along and near the western Alaska
Range.

Conditions will cool and stabilize somewhat tomorrow as the
remnants of a front from the Gulf spreads a few more clouds
across the area. Precipitation will take the sparser form of
isolated to scattered showers mainly along the mountains. Another
trough rotating from the western Gulf across the Aleutian Range
Wednesday will tug the end of the interior thermal trough back
over the Kuskokwim Delta bringing back the chance for some
afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A surface low over the western Aleutians with an associated front
extending across the southern Bering into the central Aleutians
will remain in that general location tonight through Tuesday then
gradually weaken Wednesday and Thursday. A frontal system from
the north Pacific will approach the central Aleutians Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...
The pattern moving into the long term has a blocking high over
northern Alaska with a low south of the Gulf of Alaska. Another
upper level low will be over the far western Bering that will
track east staying just south of the Aleutians through the week.
Meanwhile, the high and low near the mainland will mostly stay in
place into late next week bringing moist, southeast flow to the
southern mainland. Most of the rain will stay along the coast with
afternoon showers for inland locations. On Thursday this pattern
will break down making way for the western low to move near the
Alaska Peninsula on Friday. However, there is disagreement with
where this low will end up with some models bringing it north
towards the Bristol Bay area while others stay south of the Alaska
Peninsula.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale warning 119 120 131 132 136 138 150 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning 155.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RD/MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...EN