Gale Warning 180, NWS Anchorage, AK

898 
FZAK51 PAFC 270033
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271400-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST PERSISTS 
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-271400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-271400-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-271400-
RESURRECTION BAY-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-271400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-271400-
PORT VALDEZ-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-271400-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-271400-
VALDEZ ARM-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ129-271400-
PASSAGE CANAL-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER 
IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 20 INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. 
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-271400-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
11 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ131-271400-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-271400-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-271400-
CHINIAK BAY-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-271400-
MARMOT BAY-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-271400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-271400-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.  
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-271400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ141-271400-
KACHEMAK BAY-
333 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKST Sat Feb 25 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper ridge extends from the northeast Pacific to over
Southcentral Alaska. Stable conditions associated with this
feature strengthened inversions and led to stratus and fog across
much of Cook Inlet, western Kenai Pen, Anchorage Bowl, and Mat-Su
Valleys this morning. Conditions have since improved across the
Kenai Pen and Mat Valley. However, areas of low stratus and dense
fog continued into the afternoon hours across portions of the
Anchorage Bowl. Generally fair skies were observed elsewhere
across Southcentral with local outflow winds across western
Prince William Sound and through Thompson Pass.

Broad southwesterly flow aloft and an associated surface frontal
trough dominated the weather across much of the eastern Bering
Sea, Southwest Alaska, and the AK Pen. Rain and snow were observed
across the Delta with snow encroaching on the remainder of the SW
Mainland. Strong southwesterly winds were evident across much of
the Bering Sea, central/eastern Aleutians, to the Delta/Western
Capes of Southwest Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION (through Monday afternoon)...
Models overall are in good agreement with a few minor differences.
Generally used the NAM/GFS in the west with the GFS and hand edits
in the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Stratus and fog will likely be slow to clear this afternoon
and may allow IFR conditions to linger into the evening hours.
The inversion responsible for these conditions weakens some
tonight with increasing upper level clouds. The weakening
inversion and a little more mixing tonight may help to improve
visibilities in fog. However, there is still the strong
probability of MVFR/IFR ceilings to continue into Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The ridge aloft building into Southcentral Alaska today will
flatten tonight through Sunday allowing the flow aloft to turn
more westerly. While the flat ridge will be less favorable for
the formation of fog tonight, there is not any mechanism in place
to scour out the lower levels yet, so expecting to see patchy and
less dense fog to redevelop in similar locations to last night.
However, southwesterly winds pushing into Kachemak Bay and
southern Cook inlet should keep fog out of those areas.

A cold upper level trough sweeping in from the west Monday afternoon
and evening will bring a substantial increase in northwesterly
winds and drop in temperatures as well as quickly scouring out the
moist lower layers of the atmosphere. Precipitation associated
with this trough will be brief and focused mainly along west
facing slopes where snow showers will be orographically enhanced.
Strong westerly gap winds through Portage Valley, Whittier and
Passage Canal as well as northerly gaps winds through Broad Pass,
Thompson Pass and Resurrection Bay will develop Monday night and
increase through Tuesday. Additionally, strong northwesterly flow
through Barrens and out of gaps and passes along Shelikof Strait
and southern Cook Inlet will build as strong cold advection pushes
in behind the upper level trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A warm and moist front pushing through the Kuskokwim Delta and
into the Bristol Bay area this evening will bring a mixture of
rain and snow to the area, as well as some gusty onshore winds.
Precipitation in the delta will remain as snow with a few pockets
of rain mixed in during the early evening hours. Even though
warmer air is advecting into the region from the Eastern Bering,
it will pass over the ice along the Southwest coast. This has been
causing the air pushing into the Southwest coast to come in
slightly cooler than expected, and keeping conditions cold enough
to support snow. The rest of Southwest AK will remain cool enough
to continue to support snow as the front continues to stretch
further inland and slowly move southeast. As the front moves
southeast, temperatures across the area will start to cool tonight
and allow for more snow to fall. Some warming limited to the
Bristol Bay zone will cause snow to mix with rain Sunday, but by
Sunday night and into Monday morning, cold air filters back into
the region from the Northwest. However by that time, only
diminishing snow showers are expected to be lingering over the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The front extending across the central and eastern portions of
the Aleutians and Bering will slowly weaken and push southward
through the remainder of the weekend. This will keep a mix of rain
and snow along with small craft to gale force gusts over these
areas through Sunday night. Colder northerly flow wrapping around
the high pressure building over the Western and Central Bering
Sunday night into Monday. This will begin to push the above
mentioned front into the Northern pacific and cause temperatures
over the area to drop, making snow the more dominant precipitation
type into early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
After cold air filters through the southern mainland early next
week it remains in place through Friday with the upper level
trough situated over the mainland and ridging in place over the
Bering. Offshore northerly flow will be gusty at times for
channeled terrain, especially along the coasts, through the end
of the week as the upper low provides a continuous tap from the
Arctic. All operational models were in good agreement through the
long range forecast, although the 12Z GFS started to break the
Bering ridge down toward Friday which was an outlier on this
solution. Only minor changes were needed today with a weighted
forecast toward the ECMWF and it's ensembles.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 120 131 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...KH