Gale Warning 179, NWS Anchorage, AK

239 
FZAK52 PAFC 261229
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-270145-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

BOGOSLOF VOLCANO 53 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR REMAINS ACTIVE. A FRONT
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
MOVES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY MON AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-270145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-270145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-270145-
BRISTOL BAY-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG
AND FREEZING FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. PATCHY FREEZING FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-270145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-270145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-270145-
UNALASKA BAY-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-270145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-270145-
NIKLOSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-270145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-270145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-270145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ177-270145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ178-270145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-270145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-270145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY
FREEZING FOG. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-270145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-270145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
329 AM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... SW 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...W 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 AM AKST Sat Feb 25 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The pattern this morning is very similar to that which we saw Thu
morning. A closed high in the Gulf is pushing a transient ridge up
into Southcentral AK while a warm front is spreading over the West
Coast. The upper level jet moves along the front at nearly 140 kts
before climbing up and over the ridge at 120 kts. The result is
widespread stratus and fog over much of Southcentral with another
round of precipitation heading for the southwest communities.
Radar echoes are increasing on both the King Salmon and Bethel
radars. Precipitation should start as snow for most locations, but
could then see some rain mix in late as temperatures hover near
or just above freezing. The parent low for this front is way back
near eastern Russia. It is swinging storm force winds through the
western Bering and pushing a cold occlusion from the Central
Aleutians through the Pribilof Islands. This cold occlusion has a
very deep moisture tap down to about 30N and it does not look to
move much today. So precipitation starts along this corridor from
Adak to St Paul, it will not stop through most of Sun.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in rather good agreement handling the synoptic
pattern. This results in moderate to high confidence regarding the
dominant weather features. There are still a few areas of
uncertainty at this time. One is precipitation type over the
Southwest today and tonight. Models show some warmer air pushing
in today as the precipitation arrives. This should make for a very
wet snow or even a rain/snow mix. However, if precipitation rates
were heavy enough, it could bring down enough cold air and allow
precipitation type to stay snow. The next area is for
precipitation moving into the Susitna Valley and Cook Inlet Region
early Sun morning. Models generally agree that not much snow will
make it over the AK Range, and what does should stay mostly over
the higher elevations of the Mat-Su Valleys. But there could still
be a few snow showers over the Hillside of Anchorage. Finally, in
the mid-range, there is uncertainty with the stronger shortwave
dropping from N to S across southern AK Mon-Tue. The American
models are stronger with this than the EC at this time. We will be
watching trends with this closely as it could bring some more snow
to Southcentral. And if the stronger solutions were to verify, it
could potentially lead to a very impressive outflow event for
places like Whittier and Seward.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Stratus and fog continue to be an extremely tricky forecast
this morning. Building heights and some dry air should help it to
mix out entirely later today. But the precise timing of when this
happens is highly uncertain. It should be gone with the help of
the late-February sun by early afternoon. MVFR ceilings will
return this evening though ahead of the next front which could
bring some precipitation by late in the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The large upper level ridge centered south of the area is putting
southern Alaska in a zonal flow pattern with a few upper level
waves moving across it the next few days. There will be some
chance of snow with each wave, but none of them look overly
impressive and many places will not see any snowfall at all. The
relatively warm airmass over Cook Inlet is keeping areas of
stratus and fog around this morning. These low clouds and fog may
persist a bit into the day for areas close to the Inlet.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A warm and moist front is aimed at the Kuskokwim Delta this
morning with some strong winds. Precipitation in the delta will
begin as snow, and then mix with rain before changing to all rain
in the afternoon. The rest of Southwest AK will remain cool enough
for some snow. As the front moves southeast, temperatures across
the area will cool tonight and allow some snow to fall. On Sun
some warming limited to the Bristol Bay zone will cause snow to
mix with rain. Sun night through Mon cold air filters into the
region, and only diminishing snow showers are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The front extending across the area will bring rain and snow
along with small craft to gale force winds through the weekend and
into Mon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A colder pattern slowly settles back over the southern mainland
and surrounding waters for next week. The upper level ridge
building over the mainland this weekend, flattens out on Monday as
a strong shortwave dives from the Arctic bringing a colder air
mass to the Gulf. A new ridge quickly develops over the Bering
into Tuesday with a long wave trough stretching along the mainland
and Gulf. Models are in relatively good agreement with this
weather regime, however they differ slightly on handling multiple
waves that eject southward from the Arctic. Only minor changes
were made in the extended forecast due to uncertainty in both
timing and placement of the anticipated waves.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 120...131...173...175...176...178...179...181
         Storm Warning 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...KH