Gale Warning 122, NWS Anchorage, AK

076 
FZAK61 PAFC 270028
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
328 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-271345-
328 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST PERSISTS 
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-271345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
328 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-271345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
328 PM AKST SUN FEB 26 2017

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

967 
FZAK61 PAFC 271230
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
330 AM AKST MON FEB 27 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-280145-
330 AM AKST MON FEB 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1006 MB LOW FORMS AT 59N 144W MON AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHENS TO
989 MB AS IT MOVES TO 58N 141W TUE MORNING. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN TO
997 MB AS IT MOVES TO 57N 137W TUE NIGHT THEN TO 58N 142W AT 999
MB WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-280145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
330 AM AKST MON FEB 27 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-280145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
330 AM AKST MON FEB 27 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

949 
FZAK61 PAFC 280004
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
304 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-281415-
304 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST 
FROM A LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF 
TUE NIGHT AND DEVELOPS INTO A LOW WITH MULTIPLE WEAK CIRCULATION
CENTERS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-281415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
304 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-281415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
304 PM AKST MON FEB 27 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

207 
FZAK61 PAFC 281234
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
334 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-010145-
334 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 992 MB LOW AT 58N 141W STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED
MORNING THEN SHIFTS TO 55N 145W AT 995 MB BY THU MORNING. A 988
NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 56N 136W BY THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-010145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
334 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-010145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
334 AM AKST TUE FEB 28 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

247 
FZAK61 PAFC 010027
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
327 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-011430-
327 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 992 MB LOW AT 58N 141W STAYS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED
MORNING THEN SHIFTS TO 55N 145W AT 995 MB BY THU MORNING. A 
988 NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 56N 136W BY THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-011430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
327 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2017

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-011430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
327 PM AKST TUE FEB 28 2017

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY 
W OF 150W.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 150W.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKST Sat Feb 25 2017

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper ridge extends from the northeast Pacific to over
Southcentral Alaska. Stable conditions associated with this
feature strengthened inversions and led to stratus and fog across
much of Cook Inlet, western Kenai Pen, Anchorage Bowl, and Mat-Su
Valleys this morning. Conditions have since improved across the
Kenai Pen and Mat Valley. However, areas of low stratus and dense
fog continued into the afternoon hours across portions of the
Anchorage Bowl. Generally fair skies were observed elsewhere
across Southcentral with local outflow winds across western
Prince William Sound and through Thompson Pass.

Broad southwesterly flow aloft and an associated surface frontal
trough dominated the weather across much of the eastern Bering
Sea, Southwest Alaska, and the AK Pen. Rain and snow were observed
across the Delta with snow encroaching on the remainder of the SW
Mainland. Strong southwesterly winds were evident across much of
the Bering Sea, central/eastern Aleutians, to the Delta/Western
Capes of Southwest Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION (through Monday afternoon)...
Models overall are in good agreement with a few minor differences.
Generally used the NAM/GFS in the west with the GFS and hand edits
in the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Stratus and fog will likely be slow to clear this afternoon
and may allow IFR conditions to linger into the evening hours.
The inversion responsible for these conditions weakens some
tonight with increasing upper level clouds. The weakening
inversion and a little more mixing tonight may help to improve
visibilities in fog. However, there is still the strong
probability of MVFR/IFR ceilings to continue into Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The ridge aloft building into Southcentral Alaska today will
flatten tonight through Sunday allowing the flow aloft to turn
more westerly. While the flat ridge will be less favorable for
the formation of fog tonight, there is not any mechanism in place
to scour out the lower levels yet, so expecting to see patchy and
less dense fog to redevelop in similar locations to last night.
However, southwesterly winds pushing into Kachemak Bay and
southern Cook inlet should keep fog out of those areas.

A cold upper level trough sweeping in from the west Monday afternoon
and evening will bring a substantial increase in northwesterly
winds and drop in temperatures as well as quickly scouring out the
moist lower layers of the atmosphere. Precipitation associated
with this trough will be brief and focused mainly along west
facing slopes where snow showers will be orographically enhanced.
Strong westerly gap winds through Portage Valley, Whittier and
Passage Canal as well as northerly gaps winds through Broad Pass,
Thompson Pass and Resurrection Bay will develop Monday night and
increase through Tuesday. Additionally, strong northwesterly flow
through Barrens and out of gaps and passes along Shelikof Strait
and southern Cook Inlet will build as strong cold advection pushes
in behind the upper level trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A warm and moist front pushing through the Kuskokwim Delta and
into the Bristol Bay area this evening will bring a mixture of
rain and snow to the area, as well as some gusty onshore winds.
Precipitation in the delta will remain as snow with a few pockets
of rain mixed in during the early evening hours. Even though
warmer air is advecting into the region from the Eastern Bering,
it will pass over the ice along the Southwest coast. This has been
causing the air pushing into the Southwest coast to come in
slightly cooler than expected, and keeping conditions cold enough
to support snow. The rest of Southwest AK will remain cool enough
to continue to support snow as the front continues to stretch
further inland and slowly move southeast. As the front moves
southeast, temperatures across the area will start to cool tonight
and allow for more snow to fall. Some warming limited to the
Bristol Bay zone will cause snow to mix with rain Sunday, but by
Sunday night and into Monday morning, cold air filters back into
the region from the Northwest. However by that time, only
diminishing snow showers are expected to be lingering over the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The front extending across the central and eastern portions of
the Aleutians and Bering will slowly weaken and push southward
through the remainder of the weekend. This will keep a mix of rain
and snow along with small craft to gale force gusts over these
areas through Sunday night. Colder northerly flow wrapping around
the high pressure building over the Western and Central Bering
Sunday night into Monday. This will begin to push the above
mentioned front into the Northern pacific and cause temperatures
over the area to drop, making snow the more dominant precipitation
type into early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
After cold air filters through the southern mainland early next
week it remains in place through Friday with the upper level
trough situated over the mainland and ridging in place over the
Bering. Offshore northerly flow will be gusty at times for
channeled terrain, especially along the coasts, through the end
of the week as the upper low provides a continuous tap from the
Arctic. All operational models were in good agreement through the
long range forecast, although the 12Z GFS started to break the
Bering ridge down toward Friday which was an outlier on this
solution. Only minor changes were needed today with a weighted
forecast toward the ECMWF and it's ensembles.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 120 131 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...KH