Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1149 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Weak upper low over northeast NM combining with a backdoor sfc front
to generate a nearly stationary area of convection over Harding
County this morning. This area is forecast to expand through the
afternoon and create an east wind into the RGV at KSAF and KABQ btwn
22/20-22/22Z. Convection to also develop along the northern mountain
and western mountains aft 18Z due to daytime heating. Any convection
will result in occasional mt obscurations and brief MVFR cigs/vsbys
along with wind gusts to 45kt. Areas of MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys to
develop east of the central mt chain aft 23/03Z, continuing through
mid morning Wednesday.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A back door cold front will push into eastern New Mexico today
becoming a focus for showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms
may be strong or severe, and could also produce heavy rainfall. The
front will push south and west this afternoon and tonight, and should
produce a moderate east canyon wind in the Rio Grande Valley. Storms
on Wednesday should favor the high terrain, particularly south of
I-40, but a disturbance on Thursday will enhance and expand storm
coverage. Friday through the weekend, the east may remain active
thanks to low level moisture returning from the Gulf.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Still a few showers and thunderstorms early this morning across
central and eastern NM. These should continue to diminish through
sunrise as an outflow boundary has pushed out well ahead of the
storms. Thereafter, all eyes will be on a back door cold front
sliding down the plains and becoming the focus for thunderstorm
development. Storm motion will be rather slow due to the upper high
positioned near EPZ, generally 5 to 10 mph toward the east, perhaps
less across far NE NM. Enough instability will also be present
across NE and EC NM for a few strong or perhaps briefly severe
storms. Locally heavy rain is certainly a possibility as well.

The front will continue to slide south and west, aided by
convection, this afternoon and tonight. The NAM and GFS are a bit at
odds with how strong the east wind in the Rio Grande Valley will be.
NAM is certainly stronger, and may be more realistic if it is
convectively aided. Regardless, the front will usher moisture back
westward, at least to the ContDvd, by Wednesday morning. Since the
NAM has the stronger push, it also breaks out much more QPF on
Wednesday afternoon across the west central and southwest mountains
than the GFS. Generally think the GFS is a bit too dry, even if some
of the moisture mixes out Wednesday afternoon while the upper ridge
remains overhead.

The upper ridge will break down on Thursday as a weak
disturbance/shortwave trough looks to round the ridge. This
disturbance should enhanced storm coverage, particularly over the
mountains, on Thursday afternoon. However, if the GFS is correct,
and it seems plausible, there could be a few storms across the
plains as well, some strong or severe.

Return flow at low levels will be the story for Friday through the
weekend while the upper level high builds over the Great Basin. All-
in-all, this pattern looks like it will keep areas along and east of
the central mountain chain in decent shape for daily rounds of storm
activity. Storms across the west should be more isolated in nature.

Early next week, dry mid level air may move into eastern NM, and
perhaps rounding into northern Mexico. Thus, storm coverage should
generally decrease as no additional moisture moves into the area,
and we continue to recycle the moisture in place.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper trough has lingered longer than expected over nrn NM and short
term models analyze it over north central/ne NM. Currently spotty
convection continuing over the Central Highlands, Northeast and East
Central Plains, which is expected to diminish towards sunrise at
least according to short term models. Surface boundary to push into
the Northeast Plains early this morning, and will serve to initiate
convection over the north central, northeast and east central as it
tracks south and westward today. A few strong storms are possible
along the boundary. Otherwise, the upper high center will be located
in the vicinity of far south central NM. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are expected to develop over the western higher
terrain today due to daytime heating.

The front will force it's way into the Rio Grande Valley late this
afternoon/early this evening with a gusty east wind along the
eastern foothills. Showers and storms should diminish late this
evening but isolated to scattered activity may persist after
midnight central and east. Storm motion today and tonight will be
generally to the east and southeast, except over northeast NM where
variable and erratic motion may be observed. Areas of fair to poor
vent rates will dominate the north central and northeast as well as
the west central and Rio Grande Valley.

Wetting rain from showers and storms Wednesday is most likely over
and near the higher terrain. Steering flow will be in an easterly
direction. Much of the region south of Interstate 40 will see fair
to poor vent rates Wednesday while mostly good rates are forecast
over the north.

Showers and storms may become more plentiful Thursday as the upper
ridge is flattened. The upper high rebuilds starting Friday and
moreso over the Great Basin during the weekend. This reduces the
areal coverage and number of storms expected across far western NM,
as well as lowering both max and min humidities in the west. A
couple of fronts look to impact the east, one potentially Saturday
night and a second Sunday night, keeping the weather more active
central and east. High temperatures through Friday will be mostly
below average, while lows stay above normal.

ECMWF and GFS bring a westerly moving closed low, an evidently
recycled and rejuvenated Harvey, but it's deflected away from NM,
long before it gets too close to the state. The high center now
appears to remain over the Great Basin through the middle of next
week.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
312 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

NMZ501>540-231100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
312 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A back door cold front sliding down the plains today will be a focus
for shower and thunderstorm development. A few storms may be strong
or severe with hail and downburst winds the main threats. However,
due to slow storm motion in addition to the instability, heavy rain
is also possible which may lead to areas of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Daily rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity is expected through
the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall is possible each day, and a few
strong or severe storms will be possile on Thursday across eastern
New Mexico as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail, gusty winds, flooding, as
well as rainfall amounts through the National Weather Service
Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.
You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or
via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
832 AM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

NMZ528-530-531-221515-
Far Northeast Highlands-Union County-Harding County-
832 AM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HARDING...WEST
CENTRAL UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM MDT...

At 831 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Gladstone, or 28 miles north of Mosquero, moving south
at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roy, Chicosa Lake State Park and Yates.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3627 10406 3625 10385 3588 10380 3595 10423
TIME...MOT...LOC 1431Z 010DEG 11KT 3619 10397

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
939 AM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

NMZ531-221630-
Harding County-
939 AM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HARDING COUNTY UNTIL
1030 AM MDT...

At 939 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bueyeros, or 17 miles northeast of Mosquero, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bueyeros.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3593 10385 3603 10378 3596 10343 3572 10359
TIME...MOT...LOC 1539Z 299DEG 10KT 3596 10375

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1131 AM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

NMZ531-532-221815-
Eastern San Miguel County-Harding County-
1131 AM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL AND
SOUTHEASTERN HARDING COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM MDT...

At 1130 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorms
between Conchas Dam and Tucumcari, generally moving southeast at 15
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Heavy rain will also be possible with these storms.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern San
Miguel and southeastern Harding Counties.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 10360 3539 10364 3537 10364 3515 10411
      3549 10405 3574 10372 3549 10338
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 319DEG 14KT 3547 10388

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
108 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

NMZ534-535-221945-
Curry County-Quay County-
108 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN QUAY AND NORTH
CENTRAL CURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM MDT...

At 108 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Quay, or 13 miles southeast of Tucumcari, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grady, Wheatland and Broadview.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 10373 3512 10359 3486 10316 3466 10338
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 312DEG 31KT 3500 10359

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