Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Albuquerque, NM

868 
WGUS55 KABQ 222243 CCA
FFWABQ
NMC007-021-059-230130-
/O.COR.KABQ.FF.W.0033.170822T2239Z-170823T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
443 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Harding County in northeastern New Mexico...
  West central Union County in northeastern New Mexico...
  Southeastern Colfax County in northeastern New Mexico...

* Until 730 PM MDT.

* At 440 PM MDT, the public reported flooding across the warned 
  area. Highway 56 and many county roads are covered in water as Ute 
  Creek has likely overflowed its banks from southeast of Abbott to 
  near Bueyeros. While little or no rain has fallen recently, runoff
  will continue to cause flooding through early this evening. 

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Mosquero, Bueyeros, Gladstone, Chicosa Lake State Park and Yates. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 10378 3577 10396 3579 10397 3596 10416
      3625 10419 3641 10365 3579 10361

$$

40

884 
WGUS75 KABQ 222355
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
555 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

NMC007-021-059-230130-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-170823T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harding-Union-Colfax-
555 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM MDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN HARDING...WEST CENTRAL UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN COLFAX
COUNTIES...

At 548 PM MDT, flooding continues along Ute creek and Carizo 
Creek as well as across portions of U.S. route 56. 

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Mosquero, Bueyeros, Gladstone, Chicosa Lake State Park and Yates. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Most flood related deaths occur in automobiles. Do not attempt to
cross water covered bridges, dips or low water crossings.

&&

LAT...LON 3560 10378 3577 10396 3579 10397 3596 10416
      3625 10419 3641 10365 3579 10361

$$

40

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
257 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor front will push southwest through the area this evening
and overnight, focusing storms and the potential for locally heavy
rainfall across the South Central Mountains and Southeast Plains.
The front will recharge moisture over the state and lead to several
days of robust storms with potential for locally heavy rainfall,
mainly over the higher terrain. High temperatures will generally be
near or slightly below normal through the end of the work week thanks
to cloud cover and rain-cooling. High pressure aloft will center over
the Great Basin by the weekend, which will allow for daily rounds of
storms to continue and generally be focused over the mountains of
central and northern New Mexico. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will
be within a few degrees of normal this weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The backdoor front progressed into the Northeast and East Central
Plains this morning and kicked off a round of deep convection that
produced significant locally heavy rainfall amounts up to 5" across
portions of Harding County. The front is currently progressing
southwest across the East Central and Southeast Plains and
triggering a round of heavy rain producing storms between Fort
Sumner, Clovis and Portales. This round of convection has likely
reached it's potential and the front is moving into an area with
similar surface based instability, so locally heavy rainfall amounts
between 2-3" and pulse-type severe storms look to be a good bet
across the Southeast Plains late this afternoon into the evening
hours. The front will create moderate east canyon/gap winds into
portions of he Middle/Lower Rio Grande Valley this evening and then
progress west to near the Continental Divide. The front will recharge
moisture across much of our area and cause PWATs to rise back to
near or above normal through Thursday as the upper high remains
anchored south of us. Wed/Thu storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall amounts over 2", mainly over western and south
central higher terrain Wed then over much of central and eastern
portions of the area Thu.

The upper high will begin to strengthen and transition north Friday,
eventually becoming centered over the Great Basin by late in the
weekend. Sufficient moisture will remain over the area for daily
rounds of storms, which will become more focused over the mountains
and adjacent highlands/valleys of central NM going into early next
week as the flow aloft turns more northerly. There are some
differences between the 12z GFS and ECMWF solution on the
positioning/orientation of the upper high going into the middle of
next week that would make a difference in terms of storm production,
so forecast confidence decreases from early to mid next week.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A potent backdoor cold front will move west and southwest across
central NM late this afternoon into the evening, setting off mainly
scattered showers and thunderstorms as it does so. The front will
push to the AZ line by sunrise Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall is
likely from the stronger storms. Favored area(s) for storms will
shift to the southern half of the state Wednesday as dry air aloft
from the west limits storm formation north of Interstate 40.

A weak sub-tropical wave remains on track to move from southwest to
northeast across the state Thursday, resulting in an uptick in
showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Four Corners high
pumps up along the NM/AZ border Friday, pulling in some dry air in
from the northwest. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure over
west TX will create a low level easterly flow east of the central
mountain chain, resulting in a convergence zone along the east
slopes of the Sangres and central highlands. Convection will favor
these areas as a result. Low level easterly flow continues Saturday
as the Four Corners high center builds over the Great Basin. Storms
will once again favor areas along and east of the central mountains.

Low level easterlies push westward into central and western NM
Sunday, spreading low level moisture and thunderstorms chances to
the AZ line. The one exception is forecast across the northwest
plateau where dry air will continue to win out. Low level easterlies
continue into early next week and with the Four Corners high
remaining over the Great Basin, near average crops of afternoon and
evening storms will continue for most areas.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Weak upper low over northeast NM combining with a backdoor sfc front
to generate a nearly stationary area of convection over Harding
County this morning. This area is forecast to expand through the
afternoon and create an east wind into the RGV at KSAF and KABQ btwn
22/20-22/22Z. Convection to also develop along the northern mountain
and western mountains aft 18Z due to daytime heating. Any convection
will result in occasional mt obscurations and brief MVFR cigs/vsbys
along with wind gusts to 45kt. Areas of MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys to
develop east of the central mt chain aft 23/03Z, continuing through
mid morning Wednesday.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  88  58  86 /  10   5  10  20
Dulce...........................  51  80  50  79 /  40  10  20  30
Cuba............................  51  80  55  78 /  20  10  10  40
Gallup..........................  51  85  52  82 /   5  10  20  30
El Morro........................  48  80  50  78 /  10  20  40  30
Grants..........................  50  83  53  81 /  10  30  20  50
Quemado.........................  54  80  55  78 /  10  40  30  50
Glenwood........................  61  87  62  86 /  10  50  40  40
Chama...........................  47  75  49  74 /  30  20  20  40
Los Alamos......................  56  78  58  76 /  30  40  30  50
Pecos...........................  53  79  56  77 /  30  20  20  40
Cerro/Questa....................  51  76  51  74 /  30  20  20  40
Red River.......................  46  68  45  66 /  30  20  30  60
Angel Fire......................  45  72  44  71 /  30  20  30  50
Taos............................  50  80  51  77 /  30  10  20  30
Mora............................  49  76  52  74 /  30  30  30  50
Espanola........................  59  84  61  83 /  30  10  20  30
Santa Fe........................  56  79  58  77 /  30  10  20  40
Santa Fe Airport................  56  83  58  80 /  30  10  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  86  63  83 /  20  20  20  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  86  65  84 /  20  10  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  88  64  86 /  20  10  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  87  64  84 /  20  10  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  62  90  63  87 /  20  10  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  61  87  64  84 /  30  10  20  20
Socorro.........................  65  87  66  86 /  20  30  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  81  57  78 /  30  20  20  40
Tijeras.........................  57  83  59  80 /  30  20  20  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  82  56  79 /  20  20  20  30
Clines Corners..................  54  79  56  77 /  20  20  20  40
Gran Quivira....................  58  82  59  80 /  20  30  40  50
Carrizozo.......................  59  83  61  81 /  20  30  40  40
Ruidoso.........................  56  76  56  74 /  30  60  40  60
Capulin.........................  53  77  56  77 /  20  40  30  60
Raton...........................  54  81  55  79 /  20  20  30  50
Springer........................  56  82  57  80 /  20  20  30  40
Las Vegas.......................  51  78  54  76 /  30  20  30  40
Clayton.........................  57  80  60  80 /  20  20  40  40
Roy.............................  57  79  58  79 /  50  20  40  40
Conchas.........................  62  86  65  86 /  50  20  40  30
Santa Rosa......................  61  85  63  85 /  40  20  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  62  87  65  87 /  40  20  40  30
Clovis..........................  63  82  63  83 /  50  20  40  40
Portales........................  64  83  64  84 /  50  20  40  40
Fort Sumner.....................  64  86  66  86 /  50  20  20  40
Roswell.........................  67  90  68  89 /  30  20  30  30
Picacho.........................  61  83  62  83 /  30  20  30  40
Elk.............................  59  79  59  78 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
312 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

NMZ501>540-231100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
312 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A back door cold front sliding down the plains today will be a focus
for shower and thunderstorm development. A few storms may be strong
or severe with hail and downburst winds the main threats. However,
due to slow storm motion in addition to the instability, heavy rain
is also possible which may lead to areas of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Daily rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity is expected through
the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall is possible each day, and a few
strong or severe storms will be possile on Thursday across eastern
New Mexico as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail, gusty winds, flooding, as
well as rainfall amounts through the National Weather Service
Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.
You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or
via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
332 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

NMZ526-539-222215-
Eastern Lincoln County-South Central Mountains-
332 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM MDT...

At 331 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Encinoso, or 32 miles southeast of Corona, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Arabela.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 10556 3399 10542 3385 10492 3353 10521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 301DEG 25KT 3384 10531

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
342 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

NMZ523-537>539-222215-
Eastern Lincoln County-Chaves County Plains-Central Highlands-De Baca
County-
342 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN...
SOUTHWESTERN DE BACA...NORTHWESTERN CHAVES AND SOUTHEASTERN TORRANCE
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 342 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Corona, moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Lincoln...southwestern De Baca...northwestern Chaves and southeastern
Torrance Counties.

This includes Highway 285 between Mile Markers 163 and 170.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3414 10549 3416 10549 3417 10550 3418 10550
      3418 10547 3419 10546 3422 10546 3423 10548
      3424 10547 3431 10544 3415 10477 3390 10489
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 266DEG 11KT 3424 10546

40

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
342 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

NMZ523-524-539-222230-
Eastern Lincoln County-South Central Highlands-Central Highlands-
342 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 342 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Corona, moving east at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Corona.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3413 10554 3430 10561 3443 10532 3440 10531
      3435 10531 3435 10528 3410 10518
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 248DEG 7KT 3425 10550

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
415 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     FLASH FLOOD      22 NE ROY               36.17N 103.92W
08/22/2017                   HARDING            NM   PUBLIC

            WATER RUNNING DOWN HILLSIDE FROM MESA QUITARAS... WITH
            FLOODING EVERYWHERE. CARRIZO CREEK IS RUNNING LIKE A
            RIVER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702177

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
434 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GLADSTONE               36.30N 103.97W
08/22/2017                   UNION              NM   PUBLIC

            WATER RUNNING OVER U.S. 54 IN SEVERAL SPOTS NEAR UTE
            CREEK DRAINAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702178

GUYER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
437 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

NMZ508-520-222315-
Southwest Mountains-Lower Rio Grande Valley-
437 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SOCORRO COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

At 436 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Socorro, moving east at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Laborcita and Luis Lopez.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 132 and 146.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3392 10713 3403 10708 3401 10683 3381 10692
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 284DEG 10KT 3395 10702

CA