Areal Flood Advisory 430, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
257 PM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor front will push southwest through the area this evening
and overnight, focusing storms and the potential for locally heavy
rainfall across the South Central Mountains and Southeast Plains.
The front will recharge moisture over the state and lead to several
days of robust storms with potential for locally heavy rainfall,
mainly over the higher terrain. High temperatures will generally be
near or slightly below normal through the end of the work week thanks
to cloud cover and rain-cooling. High pressure aloft will center over
the Great Basin by the weekend, which will allow for daily rounds of
storms to continue and generally be focused over the mountains of
central and northern New Mexico. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will
be within a few degrees of normal this weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The backdoor front progressed into the Northeast and East Central
Plains this morning and kicked off a round of deep convection that
produced significant locally heavy rainfall amounts up to 5" across
portions of Harding County. The front is currently progressing
southwest across the East Central and Southeast Plains and
triggering a round of heavy rain producing storms between Fort
Sumner, Clovis and Portales. This round of convection has likely
reached it's potential and the front is moving into an area with
similar surface based instability, so locally heavy rainfall amounts
between 2-3" and pulse-type severe storms look to be a good bet
across the Southeast Plains late this afternoon into the evening
hours. The front will create moderate east canyon/gap winds into
portions of he Middle/Lower Rio Grande Valley this evening and then
progress west to near the Continental Divide. The front will recharge
moisture across much of our area and cause PWATs to rise back to
near or above normal through Thursday as the upper high remains
anchored south of us. Wed/Thu storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall amounts over 2", mainly over western and south
central higher terrain Wed then over much of central and eastern
portions of the area Thu.

The upper high will begin to strengthen and transition north Friday,
eventually becoming centered over the Great Basin by late in the
weekend. Sufficient moisture will remain over the area for daily
rounds of storms, which will become more focused over the mountains
and adjacent highlands/valleys of central NM going into early next
week as the flow aloft turns more northerly. There are some
differences between the 12z GFS and ECMWF solution on the
positioning/orientation of the upper high going into the middle of
next week that would make a difference in terms of storm production,
so forecast confidence decreases from early to mid next week.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A potent backdoor cold front will move west and southwest across
central NM late this afternoon into the evening, setting off mainly
scattered showers and thunderstorms as it does so. The front will
push to the AZ line by sunrise Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall is
likely from the stronger storms. Favored area(s) for storms will
shift to the southern half of the state Wednesday as dry air aloft
from the west limits storm formation north of Interstate 40.

A weak sub-tropical wave remains on track to move from southwest to
northeast across the state Thursday, resulting in an uptick in
showers and storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Four Corners high
pumps up along the NM/AZ border Friday, pulling in some dry air in
from the northwest. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure over
west TX will create a low level easterly flow east of the central
mountain chain, resulting in a convergence zone along the east
slopes of the Sangres and central highlands. Convection will favor
these areas as a result. Low level easterly flow continues Saturday
as the Four Corners high center builds over the Great Basin. Storms
will once again favor areas along and east of the central mountains.

Low level easterlies push westward into central and western NM
Sunday, spreading low level moisture and thunderstorms chances to
the AZ line. The one exception is forecast across the northwest
plateau where dry air will continue to win out. Low level easterlies
continue into early next week and with the Four Corners high
remaining over the Great Basin, near average crops of afternoon and
evening storms will continue for most areas.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Weak upper low over northeast NM combining with a backdoor sfc front
to generate a nearly stationary area of convection over Harding
County this morning. This area is forecast to expand through the
afternoon and create an east wind into the RGV at KSAF and KABQ btwn
22/20-22/22Z. Convection to also develop along the northern mountain
and western mountains aft 18Z due to daytime heating. Any convection
will result in occasional mt obscurations and brief MVFR cigs/vsbys
along with wind gusts to 45kt. Areas of MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys to
develop east of the central mt chain aft 23/03Z, continuing through
mid morning Wednesday.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  88  58  86 /  10   5  10  20
Dulce...........................  51  80  50  79 /  40  10  20  30
Cuba............................  51  80  55  78 /  20  10  10  40
Gallup..........................  51  85  52  82 /   5  10  20  30
El Morro........................  48  80  50  78 /  10  20  40  30
Grants..........................  50  83  53  81 /  10  30  20  50
Quemado.........................  54  80  55  78 /  10  40  30  50
Glenwood........................  61  87  62  86 /  10  50  40  40
Chama...........................  47  75  49  74 /  30  20  20  40
Los Alamos......................  56  78  58  76 /  30  40  30  50
Pecos...........................  53  79  56  77 /  30  20  20  40
Cerro/Questa....................  51  76  51  74 /  30  20  20  40
Red River.......................  46  68  45  66 /  30  20  30  60
Angel Fire......................  45  72  44  71 /  30  20  30  50
Taos............................  50  80  51  77 /  30  10  20  30
Mora............................  49  76  52  74 /  30  30  30  50
Espanola........................  59  84  61  83 /  30  10  20  30
Santa Fe........................  56  79  58  77 /  30  10  20  40
Santa Fe Airport................  56  83  58  80 /  30  10  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  86  63  83 /  20  20  20  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  86  65  84 /  20  10  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  88  64  86 /  20  10  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  87  64  84 /  20  10  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  62  90  63  87 /  20  10  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  61  87  64  84 /  30  10  20  20
Socorro.........................  65  87  66  86 /  20  30  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  81  57  78 /  30  20  20  40
Tijeras.........................  57  83  59  80 /  30  20  20  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  82  56  79 /  20  20  20  30
Clines Corners..................  54  79  56  77 /  20  20  20  40
Gran Quivira....................  58  82  59  80 /  20  30  40  50
Carrizozo.......................  59  83  61  81 /  20  30  40  40
Ruidoso.........................  56  76  56  74 /  30  60  40  60
Capulin.........................  53  77  56  77 /  20  40  30  60
Raton...........................  54  81  55  79 /  20  20  30  50
Springer........................  56  82  57  80 /  20  20  30  40
Las Vegas.......................  51  78  54  76 /  30  20  30  40
Clayton.........................  57  80  60  80 /  20  20  40  40
Roy.............................  57  79  58  79 /  50  20  40  40
Conchas.........................  62  86  65  86 /  50  20  40  30
Santa Rosa......................  61  85  63  85 /  40  20  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  62  87  65  87 /  40  20  40  30
Clovis..........................  63  82  63  83 /  50  20  40  40
Portales........................  64  83  64  84 /  50  20  40  40
Fort Sumner.....................  64  86  66  86 /  50  20  20  40
Roswell.........................  67  90  68  89 /  30  20  30  30
Picacho.........................  61  83  62  83 /  30  20  30  40
Elk.............................  59  79  59  78 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
312 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

NMZ501>540-231100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
312 AM MDT Tue Aug 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A back door cold front sliding down the plains today will be a focus
for shower and thunderstorm development. A few storms may be strong
or severe with hail and downburst winds the main threats. However,
due to slow storm motion in addition to the instability, heavy rain
is also possible which may lead to areas of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Daily rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity is expected through
the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall is possible each day, and a few
strong or severe storms will be possile on Thursday across eastern
New Mexico as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hail, gusty winds, flooding, as
well as rainfall amounts through the National Weather Service
Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.
You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or
via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
203 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

NMZ535-222030-
Curry County-
203 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CURRY COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MDT...

At 203 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Broadview, or 30 miles north of Clovis, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grady, Broadview and Bellview.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 10336 3487 10332 3487 10329 3495 10328
      3495 10324 3492 10304 3465 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 290DEG 20KT 3486 10324

40

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
215 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

NMZ535-222045-
Curry County-
215 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CURRY COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MDT...

At 215 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Rhea, or 13 miles northeast of Clovis. This storm
was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clovis and Pleasant Hill.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 10317 3468 10308 3467 10304 3446 10304
      3443 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 295DEG 3KT 3457 10305

40

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
222 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

NMZ534-535-222100-
Curry County-Quay County-
222 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL QUAY AND
NORTHEASTERN CURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

At 222 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Bellview, or 29 miles northwest of Friona, moving east
at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Quay
and northeastern Curry Counties.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 10319 3505 10316 3503 10304 3491 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 287DEG 10KT 3496 10307

40

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
247 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

NMZ536-222115-
Roosevelt County-
247 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

At 247 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oasis State Park, or over Portales, moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Portales, Oasis State Park and Arch.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3416 10343 3428 10337 3426 10305 3405 10315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 291DEG 13KT 3422 10332

40

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