Severe Thunderstorm Warning 358, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
303 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather into next week, with the most unsettled period Friday
through the weekend. Upper high near the NM/TX/Mexico will drift
southeast Thursday and Friday before building back west over the
weekend into early next week. Models then diverge on where the highs
goes after that. With the high to our east late this week there will
be a sharp increase in moisture coming into the state. A back door
cold front will also help deliver low level moisture to the east,
making for an active period of storms, heavy rain and possible flash
flooding, focused on the Friday through Sunday time period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms firing over the southwest and central
mountains into the northeast this afternoon, with these areas the
primary focus through this evening. The northeast could see isolated
severe weather and heavy rain. Most of the rain will diminish or end
during the night, except it may continue in the northeast well into
the overnight hours.

The high aloft will drift southeast Thursday and Friday and open up
the deeper monsoon moisture over Mexico to surge north into NM. There
will be a noticeable uptick in showers and storms over the west
Thursday and central areas Friday. The east will remain active as a
back door cold front drops south Thursday night into Friday.

Not only will Friday be very active, but the weekend as well. The
upper high will begin to drift west again over the weekend and be
centered over northern Mexico. Flow aloft though will be weak, with
moisture having nowhere to go, so it will get recycled Saturday and
Sunday. Widespread convection, heavy rain and isolated flash flooding
are expected.

The GFS continues to shift the high to the west early next week,
while the ECMWF splits the high in two with one center over Sonora
and another over south TX. The Canadian has one high center over TX.
Not surprisingly, the GFS is the drier of the three models. Will take
a blend of the models and keep the weather moderately active for
Monday and Tuesday. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A tale of two halves continues with a moist/increasingly unstable
air mass east of the Rio Grande, while drier and more stable
conditions predominate across the west. For the second convective
day, surface dew point temperatures have begun to mix out into the
30s across the far west resulting in min RH values in the teens as
of early afternoon. Focus for thunderstorms and wetting rain will
remain across the east, especially the northeast, through tonight
where strong to severe storms can be expected beneath a moderately
strong west-northwest flow aloft. Elsewhere, outside an isolated
storm east of the Divide to the central mountain chain, quiet
weather will persist.

Going into Thursday,  upper level high pressure currently centered
near El Paso/Las Cruces will gradually shift eastward setting up
just northeast of the Big Bend region later Friday. The upper high
will remain more or less anchored over west-central TX through the
weekend. As a result, Thursday PM looks to be a bit more active
across central/western areas as compared to the past two days but
still a bit below expectations for early August. The more important
player in the near-term will be another backdoor cold front that
should push into northeast areas late Thursday night slowly pressing
south and west early Friday. The boundary will be aided or
reinforced by convective outflow/rain-cooled air, and will likely
push farther south and west than what current models show, but
either way it will provide a significant boost to storm coverage by
Friday and lingering into Saturday. At the same time,  moisture
pooling just to our south will slowly get pulled northward in the
developing southerly flow around the west side of the upper high.

Lower than usual confidence in extended period of forecast for .
Sunday and beyond. The GFS/ECMWF show the next upper trough nearing
the West Coast late Sunday into early Monday, while another sharp
trough carves out over the nation's mid-section. This will reorient
the large-scale ridge axis and possibly force the main centroid to
build/redevelop westward per the GFS. However, the ECMWF is
considerably wetter Tue/Wed, and keeps the main centroid farther
east, while the 12Z GFS continues it previous drying trend.  KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Patchy, marginal MVFR cigs to linger across portions of east-central
and northeast NM through 19Z. Otherwise, diurnal destabilization
process underway but overall today's crop of SHRA/TSRA will fall
below/well-below expectations for early August with predominately
storm free skies for all but the east and areas over/near the
southern high terrain where isolated to scattered convection expected
after 20Z. Most vigorous TSRA to include isolated severe storms will
focus mostly over northeastern NM again later this afternoon into the
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  93  64  87 /   0   5  10  20
Dulce...........................  51  84  54  78 /   5  10  20  40
Cuba............................  56  85  59  80 /   5  10  30  50
Gallup..........................  54  89  59  83 /   0  20  10  40
El Morro........................  52  83  56  78 /   5  30  30  50
Grants..........................  55  88  58  84 /   5  20  20  50
Quemado.........................  56  84  58  80 /   5  40  50  50
Glenwood........................  64  91  65  88 /  20  30  40  30
Chama...........................  50  80  51  74 /   5  20  10  50
Los Alamos......................  59  84  60  79 /   5  20  20  50
Pecos...........................  56  84  58  78 /  20  20  30  50
Cerro/Questa....................  52  79  53  73 /  20  20  20  50
Red River.......................  45  70  46  64 /  20  30  20  60
Angel Fire......................  46  76  48  69 /  20  30  30  60
Taos............................  52  83  55  78 /  10  20  20  50
Mora............................  53  80  55  73 /  20  30  30  50
Espanola........................  62  90  63  85 /   5  10  10  40
Santa Fe........................  59  84  60  80 /  10  10  20  40
Santa Fe Airport................  60  89  61  85 /   5  10  10  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  90  65  87 /   5   5  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  92  67  89 /   5   5  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  94  67  91 /   5   5  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  94  67  91 /   5   5  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  66  96  65  93 /   5   5  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  66  93  67  90 /   5   5  20  30
Socorro.........................  68  93  67  91 /  10  10  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  90  59  85 /   5  10  30  40
Tijeras.........................  61  90  62  87 /   5  10  30  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  89  59  87 /   5  10  30  40
Clines Corners..................  57  86  58  81 /  10  20  20  50
Gran Quivira....................  61  87  61  84 /   5  20  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  63  88  63  87 /  10  30  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  58  81  58  80 /  20  50  20  50
Capulin.........................  56  81  56  72 /  50  30  40  40
Raton...........................  56  85  56  76 /  40  20  30  40
Springer........................  58  86  58  77 /  30  20  30  40
Las Vegas.......................  55  84  56  77 /  20  20  30  50
Clayton.........................  62  84  61  78 /  50  20  40  40
Roy.............................  59  84  60  77 /  30  20  30  40
Conchas.........................  65  92  66  87 /  20  20  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  63  91  64  87 /  10  20  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  67  96  68  90 /  20  20  20  20
Clovis..........................  65  91  66  88 /  10  10  10  20
Portales........................  67  90  67  88 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  67  91  67  87 /  10  10  10  20
Roswell.........................  69  96  69  95 /   5   5   5  10
Picacho.........................  63  88  63  87 /  20  20  10  20
Elk.............................  60  83  61  83 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

40

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
313 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

NMZ501>540-101100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
313 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over the northeast
plains, including Colfax and Union counties. Storms will be capable
of producing large hail, strong downburst winds, frequent lightning,
and locally heavy rainfall. There is a slight risk for flash
flooding over eastern New Mexico where locally heavy rainfall is
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over the far
northeast plains Thursday. Storms will be capable of producing large
hail, strong downburst winds, frequent lightning, and flash
flooding.

A more significant moisture surge will produce a large coverage of
storms over NM Friday and through the weekend. This pattern will
enhance the possibility for locally heavy rainfall and the risk for
flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
322 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

NMZ515-528-092200-
Far Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
322 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MDT...

At 322 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Philmont Scout Ranch, or 21 miles west of Springer, moving east at 15
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cimarron, Philmont Scout Ranch, Rayado and Miami.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3639 10507 3657 10502 3654 10460 3632 10465
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 282DEG 15KT 3647 10495

54

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
352 PM MDT WED AUG 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             LAS VEGAS               35.60N 105.22W
08/09/2017  M1.75 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702147

DAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
354 PM MDT WED AUG 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             4 SE LAS VEGAS          35.55N 105.17W
08/09/2017  M1.75 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702148

DAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
402 PM MDT WED AUG 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             4 SE LAS VEGAS          35.55N 105.17W
08/09/2017  M1.75 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CALL FROM LAS VEGAS STATE FORESTRY OFFICE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702148

DAK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
423 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

NMZ515-528-092315-
Far Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
423 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MORA AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

At 422 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles east of Ocate, or 14 miles southwest of Springer, moving south
at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wagon Mound.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 387 and 401.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3631 10492 3632 10469 3600 10462 3599 10495
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 357DEG 12KT 3625 10481

54

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
444 PM MDT WED AUG 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             LAS VEGAS               35.60N 105.22W
08/09/2017  M2.75 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM NEW MEXICO HIGHLANDS UNIVERSITY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702149

DAK