Severe Thunderstorm Warning 350, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1134 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Patchy, marginal MVFR cigs to linger across portions of east-central
and northeast NM through 19Z. Otherwise, diurnal destabilization
process underway but overall today's crop of SHRA/TSRA will fall
below/well-below expectations for early August with predominately
storm free skies for all but the east and areas over/near the
southern high terrain where isolated to scattered convection expected
after 20Z. Most vigorous TSRA to include isolated severe storms will
focus mostly over northeastern NM again later this afternoon into the
evening. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...445 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017...
.UPDATE...
Forecast updated to include continued storm activity over the east-
central plains as well as patchy fog over portions of the eastern
plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Remnant showers and storms over portions of the eastern plains this
morning, with another round of storms off the Sangre's this afternoon
and evening. A few storms over the NE plains could become severe. The
upper high shifts east into Texas helping to enhance monsoonal flow
over New Mexico, in turn trending storm chances up for the end of the
week and into the weekend. Another backdoor front will also help
enhance storm coverage over the eastern plains Friday. Daytime highs
will be near average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Remnant storms over portions of the eastern plains have persisted
and will continue into the morning hours today. The upper high will
shift north over southern NM today with westerly flow aloft over the
northern mtns. Another backdoor front is progged to slide into the NE
plains this evening, where moderate bulk shear shear values of
20-40kts and CAPE values 1500-3000 J/kg will allow for a marginal
risk for severe weather capable of producing large hail, strong
downburst winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Storm activity will be
limited to the Sangre's and eastward, with scattered storms over the
Mogollon.

The upper high shifts east over TX Thursday allowing for a better tap
into monsoon moisture to begin over western NM. PWATs trend up back
over 1" over much of NM Thursday with afternoon storms firing up over
the high terrain through the weekend. Storm motions look to be slow
over the SW mtns producing a greater potential for flash flooding
concerns Thursday. Storm coverage will increase further Friday as yet
another backdoor front arrives over the east. Models have backed off
with the southerly progression of an upper trough into the Pacific
NW this weekend. Not having the trough dig into northern CA as models
depicted earlier makes sense for mid-August. Subsequently, forecast
storm chances have trended down a bit this weekend. There still
remains abundant sfc moisture due to the still forecast monsoon tap,
but with the upper trough now looking to stay a bit further north
there now looks to be a bit less mid-upper level divergence to help
trigger even more storms.

Looking towards early next week, the upper high looks to expand back
west over southern NM with storm coverage trending down a bit, but
certainly not shutting down. Plenty of sfc moisture looks to remain
over NM with daily rounds of convection off the high terrain looking
to hang around.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Not much change to relay in the near-term regarding more widespread
wet conditions developing Friday and Saturday. Models have however
trended much drier compared to several recent forecasts for most of
next week.

First, the large dry intrusion over western NM will remain in place
today and actually expand even farther east than Tuesday. Minimum
humidity values will fall below 20% along and west of the central mt
chain. Chances for showers and storms with heavy rainfall will even
shift farther east toward TX and focus more into this evening. Not
much change is expected Thursday in most areas. The east will stay
moist and most of central and northwestern NM will stay dry. There
will be initial signs of moisture trickling northward toward the
southwest high terrain.

Changes arrive Thursday night as a back door frontal boundary enters
eastern NM and a large mass of moisture pooling over northern Mexico
slides north into western NM. This will set the stage for a much
more active pattern areawide Friday and Saturday. The threat for
flash flooding will increase over steep terrain and particularly
areas of eastern NM that have received recent heavy rains.

Guidance was previously very bullish with keeping deep moisture
trapped beneath an upper high redeveloping over NM Sunday through
next week. Latest trends show a dry intrusion ahead of an upstream
upper trough advecting into a larger chunk over northwestern NM.
This is a recent trend and will likely flip flop around for a few
more days. Nonetheless, the southeast half of NM looks to be favored
for more heavy rainfall with below normal temperatures most of next
week.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

40

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
313 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

NMZ501>540-101100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
313 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over the northeast
plains, including Colfax and Union counties. Storms will be capable
of producing large hail, strong downburst winds, frequent lightning,
and locally heavy rainfall. There is a slight risk for flash
flooding over eastern New Mexico where locally heavy rainfall is
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over the far
northeast plains Thursday. Storms will be capable of producing large
hail, strong downburst winds, frequent lightning, and flash
flooding.

A more significant moisture surge will produce a large coverage of
storms over NM Friday and through the weekend. This pattern will
enhance the possibility for locally heavy rainfall and the risk for
flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

24

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
127 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

NMZ512-514-517-518-092015-
Lower Chama River Valley-West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Santa
Fe Metro Area-Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
127 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL...
NORTHERN SANTA FE AND WESTERN MORA COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 127 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pojoaque, or 10 miles northwest of Santa Fe, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Santa Fe, Pojoaque, Nambe Lake, Cowles, Nambe Pueblo,
Hyde Memorial State Park, Tererro, Rio En Medio in Santa Fe County,
Tesuque and Pojoaque Pueblo.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 10615 3591 10612 3591 10558 3564 10561
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 276DEG 32KT 3582 10604

54

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
151 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

NMZ539-092030-
Eastern Lincoln County-
151 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MDT...

At 150 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles southeast of Corona, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Lincoln County.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3409 10544 3426 10535 3418 10503 3394 10517
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 294DEG 12KT 3415 10532

54