Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
858 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
this evening. Some strong thunderstorms producing gusty winds and
hail. A chance of showers and thunderstorms continues Sunday mainly
near the New Mexico border. Dry conditions with above normal daytime
temperatures will then prevail Monday through next Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery, upper-air plots and latest model
data indicate a disturbance currently moving through south central
Arizona, with satellite and radar showing convection extending from
around the Globe area and southeast into northwest Graham county to
southeast Graham and then over the extreme eastern portions of
Cochise county along the immediate border with New Mexico. Some of
these storms are rather strong and are capable of producing strong
gusty winds and penny to nickel size hail, especially north and east
of the Safford area, as these storms move north to northeast.

Will tweak the POP forecast to account for the most recent satellite
and radar trends. Bottom line is these showers and storms will
continue to progress to the northeast with lesser rain chances east
and nil chances for the far west overnight.

As of 03Z (8 PM MST), temperatures across the region ranged from the
mid 60s to the upper 70s, with the Tucson Intl Airport reporting a
temp of 75 degs, after achieving an afternoon high temp of 92 degs,
which was 4 degs above normal for this date. Will make some minor
adjustments to the short term hourly temperature grids, but
inherited overnight low temps seem fine, but will continue to
monitor.

See previous discussion below for info beyond tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 10/06Z.
ISOLD to SCT -TSRA/-SHRA expected northeast and east of KTUS through
the evening hours tonight. MVFR conditions due to restricted
vsbys/cigs, and wind gusts of 35-45 kts with the stronger storms.
The bulk of -TSRA/-SHRA is expected to end by 09/06Z with clearing
overnight. Surface wind outside of any thunderstorm gusts ELY/SELY
at 5-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts thru 09/14z. Aft 09/14z, surface
wind generally less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
through the evening hours tonight from Tucson eastward. A slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on Sunday, mainly near
the New Mexico border. Dry conditions are then expected Monday
through Friday of next week. 20-foot winds will be east to southeast
at 10-15 mph with some gusts to around 20 mph through Sunday
morning. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven less than
15 mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...The mid level impulse will lift into the front
range northeast of our area tomorrow, but some residual moisture
will help fuel a few storms in eastern areas Sunday afternoon.

A drying westerly flow with the ridge strengthening from the south
will push our daytime highs back up to around 6-8 degrees above
average most of next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...88
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Meyer/Zell

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
813 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

AZZ509-090400-
UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD-
813 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM MST...

AT 810 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING 3 STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NEAR SAFFORD TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAFFORD...MOVING NORTH AT
25 MPH.

THE STRONGEST STORM IS 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAFFORD...AND IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
THIS STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT U.S. HIGHWAY 70 EAST OF SAFFORD.

THE OTHER STORMS NEAR SAFFORD MAY PRODUCE HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAFFORD...THATCHER...SOLOMON AND SWIFT TRAIL JUNCTION.

LAT...LON 3256 10928 3272 10979 3290 10979 3279 10927
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 167DEG 24KT 3272 10940

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