Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
230 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Some strong thunderstorms producing gusty
winds and perhaps resulting in blowing dust may occur. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms continues Sunday mainly near the New
Mexico border. Dry conditions with above normal daytime temperatures
will then prevail Monday through next Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Overall there's a broad long period ridge across
western states into the central plains. Our main weather maker
today however is a significant weakness in the flow lifting up
from the southwest and through southeast and east central Arizona
today. Moisture is one factor to consider, and was a little light
with 0.82 inches showing on the 12z KTWC sounding. However, we
continue to have a relatively brisk low level easterly flow that
has pushed dew points into the upper 40s and lower 50s (up 10 to
15 degrees over the past 24 hours). This will add to our
available moisture and should have us around .9 this afternoon.
We've had plenty of sunshine and are currently approaching our
convective temperatures for valley locations (lower 90s for the
greater Tucson area). This should help tap into a CAPE currently
increasing into the 500-1000 j/kg range, and a modest shear
around 20 to 25 kts will help storm structure. All told, we are
still expecting scattered thunderstorms this afternoon with
isolated severe storms possible.

The mid level feature mentioned earlier will lift north of our
area late this afternoon and early evening. This, along with
sunset robbing our surface heating will mean a quick end for
storms this evening, except for far eastern and east central areas
closer to the New Mexico border.

The mid level impulse will lift into the front range northeast of
our area tomorrow, but some residual moisture will help fuel a few
storms in eastern areas Sunday afternoon.

A drying westerly flow with the ridge strengthening from the south
will push our daytime highs back up to around 6-8 degrees above
average most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 09/23Z.
ISOLD to SCT -TSRA/-SHRA expected from KTUS north and east through
the evening hours tonight. MVFR conditions due to restricted
vsbys/cigs, and wind gusts of 35-45 kts with the stronger storms.
The bulk of -TSRA/-SHRA is expected to end by 09/06Z with clearing
overnight. Surface wind outside of any thunderstorm gusts ELY/SELY
at 5-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts thru 09/14z. Aft 09/14z, surface
wind generally less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
through the evening hours tonight from Tucson eastward. A slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on Sunday, mainly near
the New Mexico border. Dry conditions are then expected Monday
through Friday of next week. 20-foot winds will be east to southeast
at 10-15 mph with some gusts to around 20 mph through Sunday
morning. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven less than
15 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Meyer/Zell

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
356 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

AZZ507-513-082345-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON-
356 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM MST...

AT 355 PM MST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUACHUCA CITY...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF SIERRA VISTA
THAT WAS PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM IS MOVING NORTH AT
10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIERRA VISTA...BENSON...HUACHUCA CITY...
KARTCHNER CAVERNS STATE PARK AND WHETSTONE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3160 11028 3164 11044 3192 11043 3183 11013
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 199DEG 6KT 3171 11036

MOLLERE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
444 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

AZZ507-090015-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON-
444 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR UNTIL 515 PM MST...

AT 443 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NORTH OF TOMBSTONE, NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 80 AND 82...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOMBSTONE.

LAT...LON 3166 11011 3177 11022 3183 11004 3171 11000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 149DEG 7KT 3175 11009

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
521 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

AZZ504>506-090100-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING ELOY/PICACHO PEAK STATE
PARK-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN
VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING
KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE-
521 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM MST...

AT 521 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MARANA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARANA...TORTOLITA...PICTURE ROCKS AND DOVE MOUNTAIN.

LAT...LON 3231 11108 3231 11125 3258 11128 3257 11097
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 179DEG 9KT 3240 11118

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
727 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

AZZ508-512-090315-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET INCLUDING
DOUGLAS/WILLCOX-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING CHIRICAHUA NATIONAL
MONUMENT-
727 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM MST...

AT 726 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 25
MILES NORTH OF DOUGLAS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUCKER CANYON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3159 10949 3176 10956 3190 10927 3164 10916
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 249DEG 9KT 3171 10945

MOLLERE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
729 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

AZZ509-511-090315-
UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING
CLIFTON/SAFFORD-GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT
GRAHAM-
729 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM MST...

AT 728 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 22
MILES NORTHWEST OF WILLCOX...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BONITA AND FORT GRANT.

LAT...LON 3244 11002 3260 11022 3282 11006 3259 10979
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 221DEG 18KT 3254 11001

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
813 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

AZZ509-090400-
UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD-
813 PM MST SAT OCT 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL
900 PM MST...

AT 810 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING 3 STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NEAR SAFFORD TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAFFORD...MOVING NORTH AT
25 MPH.

THE STRONGEST STORM IS 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAFFORD...AND IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
THIS STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT U.S. HIGHWAY 70 EAST OF SAFFORD.

THE OTHER STORMS NEAR SAFFORD MAY PRODUCE HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAFFORD...THATCHER...SOLOMON AND SWIFT TRAIL JUNCTION.

LAT...LON 3256 10928 3272 10979 3290 10979 3279 10927
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 167DEG 24KT 3272 10940