Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
616 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR/IFR cigs to develop overnight in sct convection that will move from
west to east across the area. After 06z...most convection should be east of
the AR TAF sites...however MVFR/IFR cigs to continue into the morning.
Drier air/subsidence should result in VFR conditions from late morning
through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper low was located over the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles this
afternoon along with an associated surface low over Central
Kansas. Extending from the surface low was a cold front/dryline
across Western Oklahoma to West/Central Texas. Scattered
convection had recently begun to develop along/near the dryline
as clearing skies have helped to re-destabilize the atmosphere.
Also...ahead of the dryline...scattered showers and thunderstorms
were developing out ahead of the dryline across Southeast
Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas in response to a 40+KT LLJ
overtop areas of warm advection. Across the rest of Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...afternoon cloud cover had become
scattered allowing for conditions to destabilize again after the
morning round of showers and thunderstorms. This will aid in
setting up round two of thunderstorms...some of which could become
severe across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

Currently there is a severe thunderstorm watch for Northeast
Oklahoma and a tornado watch for Southeast Oklahoma into West
Central Arkansas. With afternoon heating...the cap has weakened
behind the morning convection allowing for an increasingly
unstable atmosphere over the CWA. Elevated thunderstorm activity
is expected to continue to develop out ahead of the dryline this
afternoon...moving northeast into Northwest Arkansas with a
localized large hail/damaging wind gust possible. The main severe
potential will be with activity along/near the dryline in Central
Oklahoma as it pushes into the CWA over the next couple of hours.
Flow over the CWA remains perpendicular to the dryline which
should allow for more discrete cells to be possible. This setup
interacting with the instability over the CWA will allow for large
hail...damaging winds and also a tornado threat to be possible
through this evening. Activity along the dryline will continue to
move eastward through the CWA this evening as the upper low over
the Panhandles shifts eastward.

Overnight tonight...the trof axis of the upper low is forecast to
move across the CWA around 06z before lifting off to the
northeast. As the low lifts northeast...the dryline is expected
to become nearly stationary over Central to Northeast Oklahoma with
the majority of the thunderstorm potential pushing off to the east
into Central Arkansas by 06z. Thus...will carry pops tapering off
from west to east during the evening hours with the severe
potential weakening late this evening.

Tuesday...the dryline is forecast to lose its definition over the
region ahead of a wave currently dropping southeast into the
Northern Rocky Mountains. With the CWA south of the boundary
along with increasing moisture...warmer conditions are expected
Tuesday afternoon with highs well into the 80s for much of the
region. The warm conditions will continue into Wednesday before
the wave over the Rocky Mountain moves into the Northern Plains
and pushes a trailing cold front into the CWA Wednesday night.
Thus...thunderstorm chances will become possible again Wednesday
afternoon and continue Wednesday night ahead of the cold front. At
least a limited severe potential looks to be possible with this
activity.

Northerly upper level flow develops behind the cold front for
Thursday and friday helping temperatures to be closer to the
seasonal average. Latest model solutions continue to push a
secondary cold front south within the northerly upper flow into
the CWA for the upcoming weekend. As the front reaches into the
region...the upper flow looks to become more zonal and parallel
to the front. This could allow for the front to become nearly
stationary over the region into the start of the next work week.
In response...shower and thunderstorm chances look to again
become possible during this time period across the CWA.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...23

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