Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 9, 2016Sebastian County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at May 9, 2016, 7:49 PM CDT for Sebastian County, Arkansas. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 9, 2016, 7:49 PM CDT (00:49 UTC)
Expired: May 9, 2016, 8:30 PM CDT
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Sebastian County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 11 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 826 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 698 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 187 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 208 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.7
Supercell composite: 6.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 9, 6:16 PM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 9, 6:16 PM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
616 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR/IFR cigs to develop overnight in sct convection that will move from
west to east across the area. After 06z...most convection should be east of
the AR TAF sites...however MVFR/IFR cigs to continue into the morning.
Drier air/subsidence should result in VFR conditions from late morning
through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper low was located over the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles this
afternoon along with an associated surface low over Central
Kansas. Extending from the surface low was a cold front/dryline
across Western Oklahoma to West/Central Texas. Scattered
convection had recently begun to develop along/near the dryline
as clearing skies have helped to re-destabilize the atmosphere.
Also...ahead of the dryline...scattered showers and thunderstorms
were developing out ahead of the dryline across Southeast
Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas in response to a 40+KT LLJ
overtop areas of warm advection. Across the rest of Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...afternoon cloud cover had become
scattered allowing for conditions to destabilize again after the
morning round of showers and thunderstorms. This will aid in
setting up round two of thunderstorms...some of which could become
severe across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

Currently there is a severe thunderstorm watch for Northeast
Oklahoma and a tornado watch for Southeast Oklahoma into West
Central Arkansas. With afternoon heating...the cap has weakened
behind the morning convection allowing for an increasingly
unstable atmosphere over the CWA. Elevated thunderstorm activity
is expected to continue to develop out ahead of the dryline this
afternoon...moving northeast into Northwest Arkansas with a
localized large hail/damaging wind gust possible. The main severe
potential will be with activity along/near the dryline in Central
Oklahoma as it pushes into the CWA over the next couple of hours.
Flow over the CWA remains perpendicular to the dryline which
should allow for more discrete cells to be possible. This setup
interacting with the instability over the CWA will allow for large
hail...damaging winds and also a tornado threat to be possible
through this evening. Activity along the dryline will continue to
move eastward through the CWA this evening as the upper low over
the Panhandles shifts eastward.

Overnight tonight...the trof axis of the upper low is forecast to
move across the CWA around 06z before lifting off to the
northeast. As the low lifts northeast...the dryline is expected
to become nearly stationary over Central to Northeast Oklahoma with
the majority of the thunderstorm potential pushing off to the east
into Central Arkansas by 06z. Thus...will carry pops tapering off
from west to east during the evening hours with the severe
potential weakening late this evening.

Tuesday...the dryline is forecast to lose its definition over the
region ahead of a wave currently dropping southeast into the
Northern Rocky Mountains. With the CWA south of the boundary
along with increasing moisture...warmer conditions are expected
Tuesday afternoon with highs well into the 80s for much of the
region. The warm conditions will continue into Wednesday before
the wave over the Rocky Mountain moves into the Northern Plains
and pushes a trailing cold front into the CWA Wednesday night.
Thus...thunderstorm chances will become possible again Wednesday
afternoon and continue Wednesday night ahead of the cold front. At
least a limited severe potential looks to be possible with this
activity.

Northerly upper level flow develops behind the cold front for
Thursday and friday helping temperatures to be closer to the
seasonal average. Latest model solutions continue to push a
secondary cold front south within the northerly upper flow into
the CWA for the upcoming weekend. As the front reaches into the
region...the upper flow looks to become more zonal and parallel
to the front. This could allow for the front to become nearly
stationary over the region into the start of the next work week.
In response...shower and thunderstorm chances look to again
become possible during this time period across the CWA.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...23

Hazardous weather outlook, May 9, 6:00 PM CDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
600 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 630 PM.

    AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 270 IN SOUTHEAST
            OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
    AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 630 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
    ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

***DANGEROUS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY AROUND 7 PM***

SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY AROUND 7 PM. THE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING TORNADOES. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE
PRODUCING TORNADOES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OTHER STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER....MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN COULD LIMIT
OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SEVERE THREAT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 9, 6:47 PM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TORNADO          2 SW BOSWELL            34.01N 95.89W
05/09/2016                   CHOCTAW            OK   STORM CHASER

            LOTS OF TREE DAMAGE ON PIGEON ROOST ROAD SOUTHWEST OF
            BOSWELL. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

AEJ

Special weather statement, May 9, 6:47 PM CDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

OKZ049-075-100030-
PUSHMATAHA OK-LATIMER OK-
647 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATIMER AND NORTH CENTRAL
PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 647 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CLAYTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
WILBURTON...                      CLAYTON...
RED OAK...                        HIGGINS...
ROBBERS CAVE STATE PARK...        YANUSH...
DAMON...                          TUSKAHOMA...
SARDIS...                         PANOLA...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3464 9551 3475 9552 3505 9532 3505 9507
      3470 9506 3454 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 228DEG 34KT 3467 9542

69

Special weather statement, May 9, 7:01 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
701 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

OKZ074>076-100045-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-
701 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LE FLORE...CENTRAL
LATIMER AND SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 701 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTH OF LEQUIRE TO 6 MILES WEST OF RED OAK TO
3 MILES SOUTH OF DAMON. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
POTEAU...                         WILBURTON...
SPIRO...                          PANAMA...
WISTER...                         RED OAK...
MCCURTAIN...                      BOKOSHE...
FANSHAWE...                       MC CURTAIN...
BENGAL...                         LEQUIRE...
DAMON...                          LAKE WISTER STATE PARK...
SHADY POINT...                    PANOLA...
SCULLYVILLE...                    MILTON...
SUMMERFIELD...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3530 9459 3520 9452 3482 9479 3470 9541
      3493 9526 3516 9517
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 245DEG 37KT 3507 9512 3496 9520 3480 9530

Local storm report, May 9, 7:05 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
705 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     TORNADO          HUGO                    34.01N 95.51W
05/09/2016                   CHOCTAW            OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SFP

Local storm report, May 9, 7:06 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
706 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HAIL             HARTSHORNE              34.85N 95.56W
05/09/2016  E0.88 INCH       PITTSBURG          OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0638 PM     HAIL             WILBURTON               34.92N 95.31W
05/09/2016  E0.88 INCH       LATIMER            OK   PUBLIC

&&

AEJ

Special weather statement, May 9, 7:49 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
749 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

ARZ019-029-OKZ076-100130-
CRAWFORD AR-SEBASTIAN AR-LE FLORE OK-
749 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SEBASTIAN...SOUTH CENTRAL
CRAWFORD AND NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 749 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
POTEAU...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
FORT SMITH...                     POTEAU...
GREENWOOD...                      BARLING...
POCOLA...                         LAVACA...
SPIRO...                          ARKOMA...
PANAMA...                         HACKETT...
HUNTINGTON...                     BONANZA...
BOKOSHE...                        MIDLAND...
CAMERON...                        BURNVILLE...
JENNY LIND...                     EXCELSIOR...
BLOOMER...                        SHADY POINT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 540 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 8 AND 14.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3510 9415 3496 9484 3520 9484 3531 9454
      3530 9449 3533 9449 3546 9411
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 248DEG 31KT 3509 9466

69

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 9, 7:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Latimer	44 min
May 9, 7:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Pushmataha	49 min
May 9, 7:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	9 min
May 9, 7:43 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Choctaw, Pushmataha	13 min
May 9, 7:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	35 min
May 9, 8:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore	32 min
May 9, 8:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	36 min
May 9, 8:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	35 min
May 9, 9:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Washington	34 min
May 9, 9:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	40 min
May 9, 9:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Washington	35 min
May 9, 10:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Rogers	39 min
May 9, 10:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig	31 min
May 9, 11:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Ottawa	52 min
May 9, 7:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Madison	25 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.