Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
616 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR/IFR cigs to develop overnight in sct convection that will move from
west to east across the area. After 06z...most convection should be east of
the AR TAF sites...however MVFR/IFR cigs to continue into the morning.
Drier air/subsidence should result in VFR conditions from late morning
through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper low was located over the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles this
afternoon along with an associated surface low over Central
Kansas. Extending from the surface low was a cold front/dryline
across Western Oklahoma to West/Central Texas. Scattered
convection had recently begun to develop along/near the dryline
as clearing skies have helped to re-destabilize the atmosphere.
Also...ahead of the dryline...scattered showers and thunderstorms
were developing out ahead of the dryline across Southeast
Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas in response to a 40+KT LLJ
overtop areas of warm advection. Across the rest of Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...afternoon cloud cover had become
scattered allowing for conditions to destabilize again after the
morning round of showers and thunderstorms. This will aid in
setting up round two of thunderstorms...some of which could become
severe across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

Currently there is a severe thunderstorm watch for Northeast
Oklahoma and a tornado watch for Southeast Oklahoma into West
Central Arkansas. With afternoon heating...the cap has weakened
behind the morning convection allowing for an increasingly
unstable atmosphere over the CWA. Elevated thunderstorm activity
is expected to continue to develop out ahead of the dryline this
afternoon...moving northeast into Northwest Arkansas with a
localized large hail/damaging wind gust possible. The main severe
potential will be with activity along/near the dryline in Central
Oklahoma as it pushes into the CWA over the next couple of hours.
Flow over the CWA remains perpendicular to the dryline which
should allow for more discrete cells to be possible. This setup
interacting with the instability over the CWA will allow for large
hail...damaging winds and also a tornado threat to be possible
through this evening. Activity along the dryline will continue to
move eastward through the CWA this evening as the upper low over
the Panhandles shifts eastward.

Overnight tonight...the trof axis of the upper low is forecast to
move across the CWA around 06z before lifting off to the
northeast. As the low lifts northeast...the dryline is expected
to become nearly stationary over Central to Northeast Oklahoma with
the majority of the thunderstorm potential pushing off to the east
into Central Arkansas by 06z. Thus...will carry pops tapering off
from west to east during the evening hours with the severe
potential weakening late this evening.

Tuesday...the dryline is forecast to lose its definition over the
region ahead of a wave currently dropping southeast into the
Northern Rocky Mountains. With the CWA south of the boundary
along with increasing moisture...warmer conditions are expected
Tuesday afternoon with highs well into the 80s for much of the
region. The warm conditions will continue into Wednesday before
the wave over the Rocky Mountain moves into the Northern Plains
and pushes a trailing cold front into the CWA Wednesday night.
Thus...thunderstorm chances will become possible again Wednesday
afternoon and continue Wednesday night ahead of the cold front. At
least a limited severe potential looks to be possible with this
activity.

Northerly upper level flow develops behind the cold front for
Thursday and friday helping temperatures to be closer to the
seasonal average. Latest model solutions continue to push a
secondary cold front south within the northerly upper flow into
the CWA for the upcoming weekend. As the front reaches into the
region...the upper flow looks to become more zonal and parallel
to the front. This could allow for the front to become nearly
stationary over the region into the start of the next work week.
In response...shower and thunderstorm chances look to again
become possible during this time period across the CWA.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...23

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
749 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

ARZ019-029-OKZ076-100130-
CRAWFORD AR-SEBASTIAN AR-LE FLORE OK-
749 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SEBASTIAN...SOUTH CENTRAL
CRAWFORD AND NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 749 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
POTEAU...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
FORT SMITH...                     POTEAU...
GREENWOOD...                      BARLING...
POCOLA...                         LAVACA...
SPIRO...                          ARKOMA...
PANAMA...                         HACKETT...
HUNTINGTON...                     BONANZA...
BOKOSHE...                        MIDLAND...
CAMERON...                        BURNVILLE...
JENNY LIND...                     EXCELSIOR...
BLOOMER...                        SHADY POINT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 540 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 8 AND 14.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3510 9415 3496 9484 3520 9484 3531 9454
      3530 9449 3533 9449 3546 9411
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 248DEG 31KT 3509 9466

69

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
750 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

ARZ011-020-100115-
MADISON AR-FRANKLIN AR-
750 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MADISON AND
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 749 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CASS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
PETTIGREW...                      BOSTON...
KINGSTON...                       TAFT...
DUTTON...                         WEATHERS...
RED STAR...                       REDDING...

LAT...LON 3595 9349 3593 9349 3592 9351 3588 9351
      3588 9352 3576 9352 3577 9370 3560 9370
      3572 9386 3609 9348 3608 9345 3597 9345
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 223DEG 38KT 3573 9372

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
755 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

OKZ054>056-100130-
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-OSAGE OK-
755 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL OSAGE...WEST CENTRAL
NOWATA AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 754 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
AVANT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
BARTLESVILLE...                   OCHELATA...
AVANT...                          WOLCO...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3648 9607 3654 9617 3677 9595 3674 9565
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 231DEG 38KT 3655 9605

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