Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Topeka, KS

364 
WWUS53 KTOP 250204
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
904 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

KSC149-197-250245-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-160425T0245Z/
WABAUNSEE-POTTAWATOMIE-
904 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WABAUNSEE AND SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES...

AT 903 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BELVUE...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL
         JUST NORTH OF LOUISVILLE.. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAMEGO...ST. MARYS...BELVUE...EMMETT AND LOUISVILLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE
OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3913 9604 3912 9603 3910 9603 3910 9639
      3929 9639 3936 9604
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 265DEG 29KT 3920 9624 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

GARGAN

259 
WWUS53 KTOP 250217
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
917 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

KSC149-197-250245-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-160425T0245Z/
WABAUNSEE-POTTAWATOMIE-
917 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE AND SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES...

AT 917 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ST. MARYS...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. MARYS AND EMMETT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE
OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3913 9604 3912 9603 3910 9603 3910 9620
      3933 9620 3936 9604
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 263DEG 36KT 3922 9604 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

GARGAN

760 
WWUS53 KTOP 250230
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
930 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

KSC149-197-250238-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-160425T0245Z/
WABAUNSEE-POTTAWATOMIE-
930 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED INTO JACKSON COUNTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
OTHER STORMS IN SOUTHEAST RILEY AND NORTHWEST WABAUNSEE COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3913 9604 3912 9603 3910 9603 3910 9620
      3933 9620 3936 9604
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 267DEG 19KT 3922 9596 

$$

GARGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
738 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 443 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

At 2 PM this afternoon the surface cold front was located across
northwest KS with a surface dryline across west central KS,
southward into western OK. MLCAPE has increased to 1500 J/KG across
west central and north central KS, generally along and west of I-
135/US 81. Light rain showers continued from a Washington CO line
southward into Dickinson County but these should continue to
dissipate through the afternoon hours.

Surface based thunderstorms are forecasted to develop along the
dryline and surface cold front as both of these boundaries shift
east into north central and south central KS late this afternoon.
The 0-6 KM effective shear ahead of the dryline and the approaching
upper level trough was 45-50 KTS across west central KS. This
stronger vertical windshear will spread east across the CWA as the H5
trough shifts east-northeast across the eastern KS through the
evening hours. The MLCAPE may increase to 2,000 J/KG across the
western half of the CWA late this afternoon and early this evening.
The combination of vertical windshear and instability will cause the
initial discrete thunderstorms to become supercell thunderstorms. At
this time the 0-1 KM SRH is less than 100 J/KG, thus any supercells
that develop this afternoon will probably not produce tornadoes but
could have large hail and localized damaging winds.

This evening the NAM model increases the 0-1 KM to 300 J/KM thus any
discrete supercells may produce tornadoes. High storm bases may
limit the chances for any supercell to produce tornadoes but during
the evening T/Td spreads may decrease and allow for lower LCLs. So I
cannot rule out any discrete supercell thunderstorm this evening
producing a tornado. The main hazard will be large hail and damaging
wind gusts. The WRF solutions along with the NAM show any discrete
supercells merging into line segments. This would also decrease the
chances for tornadoes.

As the upper level trough shifts northeast across NE and northeast KS
we should see the thunderstorms diminish across eastern KS and the
more intense deep moist convection shift northeast into IA and
northern MO after 6Z. The weak cold front will shift southeast
across the CWA late tonight.

Monday, an intense upper level trough will dig southeast into the four
corners region. A down stream H5 ridge will amplify across the
plains. The surface front will become stationary across the
southeast counties of the CWA. I do not see any upper level support
for thunderstorms to develop along the boundary. I suppose there may
be enough surface convergence late in the afternoon for an isolated
thunderstorm but the vertical windshear looks weak. If an isolated
storm happens to develop along and southeast of I-35 it probably will
not be severe. Highs on Monday will be slightly cooler with mid to
upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 443 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

High impact severe weather outbreak still looks possible Tuesday
evening.

Elevated convection could develop after 06Z Tues as strong Thetae
advection takes place in advance of the upper wave with some
decrease in coverage expected by mid morning as a strong capping
inversion holds until later in the afternoon.

Both ECMWF and GFS show next upper wave taking on a negative tilt
by 00Z Weds with main mid-lvl wave expected to move across the
TX/OK panhandle by 00Z. The sfc low should deepen across western
KS with a warm front extending ENE through some part of the CWA by
00Z Weds as well. CAPE/Shear parameters supporting supercells as
well as tornadoes will be in place so will continue to highlight
that message during the evening hours.

The dry slot will work across the area after midnight into early
Weds with the upper system fcst to drift across the area with some
lingering chcs for precip.

The active and potentially high impact pattern will continue with
the next upper wave forecast to induce low pressure across the
TX/OK panhandle Thurs night with widespread elevated convection
possible north of the warm front into Friday. The timing and track
of this 3rd upper system remain uncertain but another round of
severe weather looks possible as does the potential for heavy
rains somewhere across the CWA. Hopefully we'll get a break after
this system with hints of a pattern change for the first week of
May.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 737 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

Will keep VCSH initially for TOP and FOE but confidence in TSRA
moving into the area is too low for a mention at this point.
Persistent TSRA near SLN will likely enter MHK around 01Z and
bring IFR visibilities. Signals continue for MVFR cigs to move in
from the southwest toward 10Z and should mix out by 18Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...65

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
706 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-260015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
706 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE EVENING
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS AND DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
749 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             3 NW JUNCTION CITY      39.06N 96.87W
04/24/2016  E1.75 INCH       GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
750 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             2 SSE MILFORD           39.15N 96.90W
04/24/2016  E1.50 INCH       GEARY              KS   STORM CHASER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
812 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE WHEATON            39.52N 96.30W
04/24/2016  E80 MPH          POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
820 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNW HAVENSVILLE       39.58N 96.11W
04/24/2016  E80 MPH          NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
823 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             MANHATTAN               39.18N 96.57W
04/24/2016  E1.50 INCH       RILEY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED BY EM IN MANHATTAN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

COMITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
834 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     HAIL             7 N MOONLIGHT           39.10N 97.11W
04/24/2016  E1.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG