Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Topeka, KS

022 
WWUS53 KTOP 250115
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
815 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

KSC161-250130-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-160425T0130Z/
RILEY-
815 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN RILEY COUNTY...

AT 814 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OGDEN...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.

HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. 
         EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
         SIDING...AND VEHICLES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MANHATTAN...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH SIDE
OF MANHATTAN WHERE THE LARGEST HAIL FROM THIS STORM WILL FALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE
OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3926 9659 3925 9659 3925 9657 3924 9657
      3924 9656 3921 9655 3921 9654 3920 9653
      3920 9656 3918 9656 3919 9652 3916 9651
      3915 9670 3926 9668
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 274DEG 19KT 3916 9669 

HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GARGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
738 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 443 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

At 2 PM this afternoon the surface cold front was located across
northwest KS with a surface dryline across west central KS,
southward into western OK. MLCAPE has increased to 1500 J/KG across
west central and north central KS, generally along and west of I-
135/US 81. Light rain showers continued from a Washington CO line
southward into Dickinson County but these should continue to
dissipate through the afternoon hours.

Surface based thunderstorms are forecasted to develop along the
dryline and surface cold front as both of these boundaries shift
east into north central and south central KS late this afternoon.
The 0-6 KM effective shear ahead of the dryline and the approaching
upper level trough was 45-50 KTS across west central KS. This
stronger vertical windshear will spread east across the CWA as the H5
trough shifts east-northeast across the eastern KS through the
evening hours. The MLCAPE may increase to 2,000 J/KG across the
western half of the CWA late this afternoon and early this evening.
The combination of vertical windshear and instability will cause the
initial discrete thunderstorms to become supercell thunderstorms. At
this time the 0-1 KM SRH is less than 100 J/KG, thus any supercells
that develop this afternoon will probably not produce tornadoes but
could have large hail and localized damaging winds.

This evening the NAM model increases the 0-1 KM to 300 J/KM thus any
discrete supercells may produce tornadoes. High storm bases may
limit the chances for any supercell to produce tornadoes but during
the evening T/Td spreads may decrease and allow for lower LCLs. So I
cannot rule out any discrete supercell thunderstorm this evening
producing a tornado. The main hazard will be large hail and damaging
wind gusts. The WRF solutions along with the NAM show any discrete
supercells merging into line segments. This would also decrease the
chances for tornadoes.

As the upper level trough shifts northeast across NE and northeast KS
we should see the thunderstorms diminish across eastern KS and the
more intense deep moist convection shift northeast into IA and
northern MO after 6Z. The weak cold front will shift southeast
across the CWA late tonight.

Monday, an intense upper level trough will dig southeast into the four
corners region. A down stream H5 ridge will amplify across the
plains. The surface front will become stationary across the
southeast counties of the CWA. I do not see any upper level support
for thunderstorms to develop along the boundary. I suppose there may
be enough surface convergence late in the afternoon for an isolated
thunderstorm but the vertical windshear looks weak. If an isolated
storm happens to develop along and southeast of I-35 it probably will
not be severe. Highs on Monday will be slightly cooler with mid to
upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 443 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

High impact severe weather outbreak still looks possible Tuesday
evening.

Elevated convection could develop after 06Z Tues as strong Thetae
advection takes place in advance of the upper wave with some
decrease in coverage expected by mid morning as a strong capping
inversion holds until later in the afternoon.

Both ECMWF and GFS show next upper wave taking on a negative tilt
by 00Z Weds with main mid-lvl wave expected to move across the
TX/OK panhandle by 00Z. The sfc low should deepen across western
KS with a warm front extending ENE through some part of the CWA by
00Z Weds as well. CAPE/Shear parameters supporting supercells as
well as tornadoes will be in place so will continue to highlight
that message during the evening hours.

The dry slot will work across the area after midnight into early
Weds with the upper system fcst to drift across the area with some
lingering chcs for precip.

The active and potentially high impact pattern will continue with
the next upper wave forecast to induce low pressure across the
TX/OK panhandle Thurs night with widespread elevated convection
possible north of the warm front into Friday. The timing and track
of this 3rd upper system remain uncertain but another round of
severe weather looks possible as does the potential for heavy
rains somewhere across the CWA. Hopefully we'll get a break after
this system with hints of a pattern change for the first week of
May.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 737 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

Will keep VCSH initially for TOP and FOE but confidence in TSRA
moving into the area is too low for a mention at this point.
Persistent TSRA near SLN will likely enter MHK around 01Z and
bring IFR visibilities. Signals continue for MVFR cigs to move in
from the southwest toward 10Z and should mix out by 18Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...65

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
706 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-260015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
706 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE EVENING
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS AND DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
728 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     HAIL             MINNEAPOLIS             39.12N 97.71W
04/24/2016  E2.50 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
731 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             6 N WELLS               39.22N 97.55W
04/24/2016  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
742 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     HAIL             3 NW JUNCTION CITY      39.06N 96.87W
04/24/2016  E1.00 INCH       GEARY              KS   PUBLIC

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
746 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 N JUNCTION CITY       39.06N 96.83W
04/24/2016                   GEARY              KS   PUBLIC

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
749 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             3 NW JUNCTION CITY      39.06N 96.87W
04/24/2016  E1.75 INCH       GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
750 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             2 SSE MILFORD           39.15N 96.90W
04/24/2016  E1.50 INCH       GEARY              KS   STORM CHASER

&&

BAERG