Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
637 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 443 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

At 2 PM this afternoon the surface cold front was located across
northwest KS with a surface dryline across west central KS,
southward into western OK. MLCAPE has increased to 1500 J/KG across
west central and north central KS, generally along and west of I-
135/US 81. Light rain showers continued from a Washington CO line
southward into Dickinson County but these should continue to
dissipate through the afternoon hours.

Surface based thunderstorms are forecasted to develop along the
dryline and surface cold front as both of these boundaries shift
east into north central and south central KS late this afternoon.
The 0-6 KM effective shear ahead of the dryline and the approaching
upper level trough was 45-50 KTS across west central KS. This
stronger vertical windshear will spread east across the CWA as the H5
trough shifts east-northeast across the eastern KS through the
evening hours. The MLCAPE may increase to 2,000 J/KG across the
western half of the CWA late this afternoon and early this evening.
The combination of vertical windshear and instability will cause the
initial discrete thunderstorms to become supercell thunderstorms. At
this time the 0-1 KM SRH is less than 100 J/KG, thus any supercells
that develop this afternoon will probably not produce tornadoes but
could have large hail and localized damaging winds.

This evening the NAM model increases the 0-1 KM to 300 J/KM thus any
discrete supercells may produce tornadoes. High storm bases may
limit the chances for any supercell to produce tornadoes but during
the evening T/Td spreads may decrease and allow for lower LCLs. So I
cannot rule out any discrete supercell thunderstorm this evening
producing a tornado. The main hazard will be large hail and damaging
wind gusts. The WRF solutions along with the NAM show any discrete
supercells merging into line segments. This would also decrease the
chances for tornadoes.

As the upper level trough shifts northeast across NE and northeast KS
we should see the thunderstorms diminish across eastern KS and the
more intense deep moist convection shift northeast into IA and
northern MO after 6Z. The weak cold front will shift southeast
across the CWA late tonight.

Monday, an intense upper level trough will dig southeast into the four
corners region. A down stream H5 ridge will amplify across the
plains. The surface front will become stationary across the
southeast counties of the CWA. I do not see any upper level support
for thunderstorms to develop along the boundary. I suppose there may
be enough surface convergence late in the afternoon for an isolated
thunderstorm but the vertical windshear looks weak. If an isolated
storm happens to develop along and southeast of I-35 it probably will
not be severe. Highs on Monday will be slightly cooler with mid to
upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 443 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

High impact severe weather outbreak still looks possible Tuesday
evening.

Elevated convection could develop after 06Z Tues as strong Thetae
advection takes place in advance of the upper wave with some
decrease in coverage expected by mid morning as a strong capping
inversion holds until later in the afternoon.

Both ECMWF and GFS show next upper wave taking on a negative tilt
by 00Z Weds with main mid-lvl wave expected to move across the
TX/OK panhandle by 00Z. The sfc low should deepen across western
KS with a warm front extending ENE through some part of the CWA by
00Z Weds as well. CAPE/Shear parameters supporting supercells as
well as tornadoes will be in place so will continue to highlight
that message during the evening hours.

The dry slot will work across the area after midnight into early
Weds with the upper system fcst to drift across the area with some
lingering chcs for precip.

The active and potentially high impact pattern will continue with
the next upper wave forecast to induce low pressure across the
TX/OK panhandle Thurs night with widespread elevated convection
possible north of the warm front into Friday. The timing and track
of this 3rd upper system remain uncertain but another round of
severe weather looks possible as does the potential for heavy
rains somewhere across the CWA. Hopefully we'll get a break after
this system with hints of a pattern change for the first week of
May.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

Will keep VCSH initially for TOP and FOE but confidence in TSRA
moving into the area is too low for a mention at this point.
Persistent TSRA near SLN will likely enter MHK around 01Z and
bring IFR visibilities. Signals continue for MVFR cigs to move in
from the southwest toward 10Z and shit should mix out by 18Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ037-038-054-055-
058.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...65

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
706 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-260015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
706 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE EVENING
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS AND DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
556 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     HAIL             WSW CULVER              38.97N 97.76W
04/24/2016  E1.75 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
631 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     HAIL             1 SE NILES              38.96N 97.46W
04/24/2016  E2.75 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
639 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             1 NNE BENNINGTON        39.04N 97.59W
04/24/2016  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   PUBLIC

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
656 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HAIL             6 NE TALMAGE            39.09N 97.18W
04/24/2016  E1.00 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
706 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             4 N ABILENE             38.98N 97.21W
04/24/2016  E1.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
714 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     TSTM WND GST     SE RANDOLPH             39.43N 96.76W
04/24/2016  E60 MPH          RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL

&&

BAERG