Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Topeka, KS

159 
WWUS53 KTOP 262136
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
436 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSC045-087-177-262215-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-160526T2215Z/
SHAWNEE-JEFFERSON-DOUGLAS-
436 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND CENTRAL DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...

AT 434 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM OZAWKIE TO PERRY TO NEAR RICHLAND...MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAWRENCE...OSKALOOSA...EUDORA...RICHLAND...PERRY...MCLOUTH...
LECOMPTON...CLINTON...LONE STAR...PLEASANT
GROVE...WILLIAMSTOWN...CLINTON LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 184 AND 205.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE
OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3884 9506 3887 9558 3907 9560 3924 9551
      3932 9518 3897 9519 3896 9518 3898 9516
      3897 9511 3895 9509 3898 9508 3899 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 252DEG 45KT 3923 9545 3910 9538 3887 9548 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

GDP

670 
WWUS53 KTOP 262142
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
442 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSC177-262151-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-160526T2215Z/
SHAWNEE-
442 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3884 9506 3887 9550 3888 9550 3909 9542
      3924 9544 3932 9518 3897 9519 3896 9518
      3898 9516 3897 9513 3897 9511 3895 9509
      3896 9508 3898 9508 3899 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 253DEG 46KT 3925 9537 3910 9529 3885 9542 

$$

KSC045-087-262215-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-160526T2215Z/
JEFFERSON-DOUGLAS-
442 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

AT 441 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR OSKALOOSA TO NEAR WILLIAMSTOWN TO NEAR LONE
STAR... MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WERE REPORTED
IN PERRY AROUND 440 PM.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAWRENCE...OSKALOOSA...EUDORA...PERRY...MCLOUTH...LECOMPTON...CLINTON...LONE
STAR...PLEASANT GROVE...CLINTON LAKE AND WILLIAMSTOWN.

THIS INCLUDES KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 192 AND 205.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE
OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3884 9506 3887 9550 3888 9550 3909 9542
      3924 9544 3932 9518 3897 9519 3896 9518
      3898 9516 3897 9513 3897 9511 3895 9509
      3896 9508 3898 9508 3899 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 253DEG 46KT 3925 9537 3910 9529 3885 9542 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

GDP

283 
WWUS53 KTOP 262154
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
454 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSC045-087-262215-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0154.000000T0000Z-160526T2215Z/
JEFFERSON-DOUGLAS-
454 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

AT 453 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR WINCHESTER TO NEAR MCLOUTH TO PLEASANT GROVE...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS IN
         LAWRENCE.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAWRENCE...EUDORA...MCLOUTH...LONE STAR AND PLEASANT GROVE. 

THIS INCLUDES KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 199 AND 205.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE
OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3886 9536 3909 9530 3927 9528 3932 9518
      3897 9519 3896 9518 3898 9516 3897 9513
      3897 9511 3895 9509 3896 9508 3898 9508
      3899 9506 3884 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 250DEG 44KT 3928 9525 3915 9517 3886 9526 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GDP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
417 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Inverted surface trough extended northeast across north central
Kansas this afternoon. Another left over outflow boundary/warm front
extended along Interstate 70. Very moist airmass was noted across
much of the area with dew points in the low to mid 70s. 18Z Topeka
sounding shows steeps lapse rates, Mlcape of 1200 J/kg and good
turning in the lower levels with storm relative helicity of 330
m2s2. With boundaries from earlier convection, instability and
moisture any convection will be capable of all modes of severe
weather. Tornadoes will be possible well into the evening hours
tonight across the area. In addition with good moisture transport
and increasing forcing for ascent as lead wave moves out across
central Kansas this evening and tonight there is a high potential
for flash flooding and continued or additional flooding of streams
and creeks. Have issued a flash flood watch through Friday morning.
There will be a few rounds of thunderstorms through the night and
into Friday. Main upper trough will move out into the Plains on
Friday with another round of storms expected initially in the morning
then with refireing in the afternoon hours. Convergence along the
boundary is weaker in the low levels in the afternoon. 0-6km shear
of 30 to 40 kts is forecast and low level shear near the boundary
will enhance updrafts so with storms that interact with it they may
produce a brief tornado. Hail and winds will continue to be the main
hazards.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Late Friday night into the first part of the weekend, the upper
level mean trough over the western CONUS will finally begin to move
northeast and pull out of the Central Rockies into the Central
Plains during the early morning hours on Saturday into the day.  The
upper low is progged to slowly fill and eventually transition into
an open wave.  Suggestion is that there won't be a quick end to
severe potential into this time frame as moisture is still abundant
under a favorable shear profile.  With conditional lapse rates in
place also, at least expect some severe potential with hail being
the largest threat along with continued moisture causing additional
flooding in some river basins that have already become swollen.  By
Saturday night, some improvement will be seen as the open wave lifts
to the northeast into the Upper MS Valley.  Into Sunday most
guidance is in fairly good agreement that a subsident flow regime
will be in place and therefore keeping Sunday mostly dry.

Into Sunday night and Monday early morning, upper flow pattern
weakens over the Central Plains and northern stream flow will set
up over the Northern tier of the CONUS. Very hard to resolve at
this point, but some weak shortwaves may influence northeastern
KS into portions of early next week bringing chances of additional
precipitation and thunderstorms. Severe potential appears to
become more isolated at this point as upper level energy weakens
but yet some instability remains. Depending on if the GFS verifies
over the ECMWF will determine how much storm potential and
organization actually develop. GFS is more aggressive which would
suggest at least some potential for a few stronger storms to
develop but narrowing down the exact timing at this point is not
very evident. What does seem consistent is that on Wednesday a
cold front will be pushed through the area and a potentially drier
pattern should begin to take hold.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Tricky forecast. Showers and thunderstorms may develop early this
afternoon with little cap in place. More organized thunderstorms
are expected to develop over central KS and move northeast during
afternoon into evening. There could be a couple rounds of strong
to severe thunderstorms during that time. Expect at least MVFR
conditions with the heavier thunderstorms, and then probably some
lower ceilings in the MVFR or IFR range after the rain is over.
Conditions may slowly improve Friday morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Drake/GDP
AVIATION...GDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1224 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-271730-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1224 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 2 PM AND 4 PM...AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING ALL POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
RISK FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE IN THE 2 PM TO 9 PM TIME FRAME...
BUT MAY CONTINUE LATER INTO THE EVENING IF CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY HAZARD WHILE TORNADO
POTENTIAL GRADUALLY DECREASES.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE REPUBLICAN RIVER AT
CLAY CENTER AND THE SOLOMON RIVER AT NILES. MODERATE RIVER
FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR GLASCO ON THE SOLOMON RIVER AND THE SALT
CREEK AT ADA. ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEK...FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A RISK THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY IN THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WSW ALMA              38.99N 96.34W
05/26/2016  E60 MPH          WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL TREE BRANCHES FALLING.

&&

EH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WSW KEENE             38.95N 96.10W
05/26/2016  E60 MPH          WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
404 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 6 S CLAY CENTER         39.29N 97.12W
05/26/2016                   CLAY               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MACHINE SHED DESTROYED

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
405 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CLAY CENTER             39.38N 97.12W
05/26/2016                   CLAY               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN THE CITY

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
416 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     TSTM WND GST     SE SILVER LAKE          39.10N 95.85W
05/26/2016  E60 MPH          SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
423 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SILVER LAKE             39.10N 95.86W
05/26/2016                   SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. CARPORT WAS BLOWN AWAY NEAR
            WALNUT STREET AND 24 HIGHWAY.

&&

HENNECKE