Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
417 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Inverted surface trough extended northeast across north central
Kansas this afternoon. Another left over outflow boundary/warm front
extended along Interstate 70. Very moist airmass was noted across
much of the area with dew points in the low to mid 70s. 18Z Topeka
sounding shows steeps lapse rates, Mlcape of 1200 J/kg and good
turning in the lower levels with storm relative helicity of 330
m2s2. With boundaries from earlier convection, instability and
moisture any convection will be capable of all modes of severe
weather. Tornadoes will be possible well into the evening hours
tonight across the area. In addition with good moisture transport
and increasing forcing for ascent as lead wave moves out across
central Kansas this evening and tonight there is a high potential
for flash flooding and continued or additional flooding of streams
and creeks. Have issued a flash flood watch through Friday morning.
There will be a few rounds of thunderstorms through the night and
into Friday. Main upper trough will move out into the Plains on
Friday with another round of storms expected initially in the morning
then with refireing in the afternoon hours. Convergence along the
boundary is weaker in the low levels in the afternoon. 0-6km shear
of 30 to 40 kts is forecast and low level shear near the boundary
will enhance updrafts so with storms that interact with it they may
produce a brief tornado. Hail and winds will continue to be the main
hazards.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Late Friday night into the first part of the weekend, the upper
level mean trough over the western CONUS will finally begin to move
northeast and pull out of the Central Rockies into the Central
Plains during the early morning hours on Saturday into the day.  The
upper low is progged to slowly fill and eventually transition into
an open wave.  Suggestion is that there won't be a quick end to
severe potential into this time frame as moisture is still abundant
under a favorable shear profile.  With conditional lapse rates in
place also, at least expect some severe potential with hail being
the largest threat along with continued moisture causing additional
flooding in some river basins that have already become swollen.  By
Saturday night, some improvement will be seen as the open wave lifts
to the northeast into the Upper MS Valley.  Into Sunday most
guidance is in fairly good agreement that a subsident flow regime
will be in place and therefore keeping Sunday mostly dry.

Into Sunday night and Monday early morning, upper flow pattern
weakens over the Central Plains and northern stream flow will set
up over the Northern tier of the CONUS. Very hard to resolve at
this point, but some weak shortwaves may influence northeastern
KS into portions of early next week bringing chances of additional
precipitation and thunderstorms. Severe potential appears to
become more isolated at this point as upper level energy weakens
but yet some instability remains. Depending on if the GFS verifies
over the ECMWF will determine how much storm potential and
organization actually develop. GFS is more aggressive which would
suggest at least some potential for a few stronger storms to
develop but narrowing down the exact timing at this point is not
very evident. What does seem consistent is that on Wednesday a
cold front will be pushed through the area and a potentially drier
pattern should begin to take hold.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Tricky forecast. Showers and thunderstorms may develop early this
afternoon with little cap in place. More organized thunderstorms
are expected to develop over central KS and move northeast during
afternoon into evening. There could be a couple rounds of strong
to severe thunderstorms during that time. Expect at least MVFR
conditions with the heavier thunderstorms, and then probably some
lower ceilings in the MVFR or IFR range after the rain is over.
Conditions may slowly improve Friday morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Drake/GDP
AVIATION...GDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
427 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272130-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
427 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLOODING ALL
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE UNTIL THE
9PM TIME FRAME... BUT MAY CONTINUE LATER INTO THE EVENING IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY HAZARD WHILE TORNADO
POTENTIAL GRADUALLY DECREASES.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE REPUBLICAN RIVER AT
CLAY CENTER AND THE SOLOMON RIVER AT NILES. MODERATE RIVER
FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR GLASCO ON THE SOLOMON RIVER AND THE SALT
CREEK AT ADA. ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEK...FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A RISK THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY IN THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
510 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HEAVY RAIN       W LAWRENCE              38.96N 95.26W
05/26/2016  E1.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN OF 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES FELL IN 30 MINUTES.

&&

HENNECKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
514 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAWRENCE AIRPORT        39.02N 95.22W
05/26/2016  M68 MPH          DOUGLAS            KS   ASOS

&&

HENNECKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
520 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             MERIDEN                 39.19N 95.57W
05/26/2016  E2.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          KS   PUBLIC

            *** 2 INJ ***
            2 INJURIES REPORTED BY EM. VICTIMS REFUSED
            TREATMENT. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

SMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
521 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAWRENCE AIRPORT        39.02N 95.22W
05/26/2016  M52 MPH          DOUGLAS            KS   ASOS

&&

HENNECKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
527 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             EMPORIA                 38.40N 96.18W
05/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       LYON               KS   PUBLIC

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
545 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     HAIL             1 S READING             38.50N 95.96W
05/26/2016  E0.75 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG