Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Topeka, KS

856 
WWUS53 KTOP 110949
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
449 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

KSC149-161-111015-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-160511T1015Z/
RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-
449 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL RILEY AND CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES...

AT 447 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WESTMORELAND...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...PUBLIC. AT 440 AM...FORT RILEY AIRFIELD REPORTED A WIND
         GUST TO 63MPH WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANHATTAN...WAMEGO...WESTMORELAND...BLAINE...OGDEN...RILEY...ST. GEORGE...
LEONARDVILLE...OLSBURG...LOUISVILLE...RANDOLPH...WHEATON...KEATS AND
TUTTLE CREEK LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3920 9621 3921 9624 3918 9627 3918 9628
      3920 9629 3920 9631 3919 9632 3917 9633
      3917 9637 3916 9638 3917 9639 3916 9639
      3909 9680 3945 9690 3956 9632
TIME...MOT...LOC 0947Z 259DEG 39KT 3933 9652 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
241 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

Will be brief as storms progged to develop over next hour or so over
the area, with stronger focus along and north of I70. Threat
continues to be large hail and wind, with plume of instability
working its way northward into the area at this time.  Higher
resolution models indicate a convective system developing and moving
to the northeast, with much of the activity east of our area by
around the noon hour as the main front pushes through.  Highs should
still reach into the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

Beginning of the period starts with surface high pressure moving
into Kansas by early afternoon Thursday keeping conditions dry and
skies mostly clear.  This high pressure moves southeast late
Thursday night as a surface low and embedded weak shortwave in the
upper level flow move across northeast Kansas Friday afternoon into
Friday night.  With models showing over 1200 J/kg of CAPE and decent
shear across the area Friday, thunderstorms will be possible during
this time period.  Saturday through Wednesday, chances for
precipitation persist in the forecast. While the GFS and ECMWF
still have significant differences in the extended, the best
chance for precipitation looks to be Monday and Monday night
associated with a shortwave moving across the southern stream
flow. Instability looks to be minimal through the end of the
period, therefore have kept either showers or showers with
isolated thunder.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

Not much change to the forecast as the HRRR continues to show some
inconsistency in the reflectivity prog. The 03Z HRRR tends to keep
much of the convection north of I-70 while the larger scale NAM
and GFS show more widespread precipitation. Therefore have opted
to maintain a VCTS for the most likely window. Overall the
HRRR/RAP/NAM are a little slower in developing elevated storms, so
have delayed the from groups in the previous forecast accordingly.
Still looks like some MVFR stratus could move in behind the precip
as low level moisture advection persists.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Wolters

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
410 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-112115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
410 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE-70...AND
MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
414 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

KSZ024-026-039-111000-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-SHAWNEE-
414 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SHAWNEE...SOUTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

AT 414 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN TOPEKA...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOPEKA...TECUMSEH...MERIDEN...HOYT...BERRYTON...PERRY LAKE...GRANTVILLE AND
PAULINE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 354 AND 355.
 KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 171 AND 187.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3905 9549 3905 9550 3904 9550 3887 9560
      3895 9584 3929 9574 3921 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 0914Z 197DEG 24KT 3898 9569

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