Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
241 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

Will be brief as storms progged to develop over next hour or so over
the area, with stronger focus along and north of I70. Threat
continues to be large hail and wind, with plume of instability
working its way northward into the area at this time.  Higher
resolution models indicate a convective system developing and moving
to the northeast, with much of the activity east of our area by
around the noon hour as the main front pushes through.  Highs should
still reach into the 70s with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

Beginning of the period starts with surface high pressure moving
into Kansas by early afternoon Thursday keeping conditions dry and
skies mostly clear.  This high pressure moves southeast late
Thursday night as a surface low and embedded weak shortwave in the
upper level flow move across northeast Kansas Friday afternoon into
Friday night.  With models showing over 1200 J/kg of CAPE and decent
shear across the area Friday, thunderstorms will be possible during
this time period.  Saturday through Wednesday, chances for
precipitation persist in the forecast. While the GFS and ECMWF
still have significant differences in the extended, the best
chance for precipitation looks to be Monday and Monday night
associated with a shortwave moving across the southern stream
flow. Instability looks to be minimal through the end of the
period, therefore have kept either showers or showers with
isolated thunder.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

Not much change to the forecast as the HRRR continues to show some
inconsistency in the reflectivity prog. The 03Z HRRR tends to keep
much of the convection north of I-70 while the larger scale NAM
and GFS show more widespread precipitation. Therefore have opted
to maintain a VCTS for the most likely window. Overall the
HRRR/RAP/NAM are a little slower in developing elevated storms, so
have delayed the from groups in the previous forecast accordingly.
Still looks like some MVFR stratus could move in behind the precip
as low level moisture advection persists.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Wolters

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
410 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-112115-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
410 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE-70...AND
MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP