Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
333 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Dry conditions have persisted through this morning and early
afternoon across our area, thanks to relatively dry air at mid
levels and weak upper level forcing. However, expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms to expand in coverage late this afternoon
into the evening as increased moisture develops, along with the sea
breeze pushing inland and eventually an upper level shortwave
approaching our northern areas this evening.

The sea breeze should remain fairly close to the coast through the
remainder of the afternoon and evening due to flow out of the
north/northeast. As a result, the most likely area for enhanced
coverage of showers and storms resulting from this feature will
remain near the coast, especially near the western Big Bend where
convergence will be maximized. Our northern counties will also see a
decent chance of showers and storms from late afternoon through the
evening, as fairly widespread thunderstorms have already developed
just north of our CWA and northerly flow will likely bring some of
these storms into SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Storms may persist a
couple hours past sunset, with upper level support increasing as a
shortwave approaches our area. However, expect most inland areas to
dry out later tonight as instability continues to decrease.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

An upper level ridge is centered over the central CONUS and will
remain over the plains throughout the short term period. CWA is
still present on the eastern side of the ridge, however, due to the
lack of defined shortwaves, there is less coverage expected on
Wednesday and Thursday compared to today. PoPs will be slightly less
than climatology at around 20-40 percent through the period. High
temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s inland and
in the lower 90s along the coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Heat
indices are expected to exceed 100 and possibly approach 105.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Deep layer ridge across the central CONUS will begin to flatten
and elongate as a series of shortwave troughs move across the
northern tier states. Not much relief is in the offering for the
southeast CONUS and our area with highs in the mid 90s, heat
indices in the low to mid 100s, and summertime diurnal
thunderstorms each day. An upper trough, seen in the medium range
model solutions moreso in the GFS than the ECMWF, will move into
the eastern Gulf of Mexico Monday towards the Mississippi delta
Tuesday. This will help to increase precipitation chances Monday
and especially Tuesday, increase cloud cover, and lower high
temperatures as a result. Confidence is low at this point but
edged in that direction as the GFS has shown some consistency the
past few model runs.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...

Showers and thunderstorms have been slow to develop in our area
early this afternoon, with all terminals experiencing VFR conditions.
However, scattered convection in central AL/GA will slowly push
southward into our area, along with scattered showers and storms
possibly developing later this afternoon along the sea breeze in
northern FL. Scattered showers and storms should dissipate during
the evening...likely by sunset near ECP and TLH, and possibly a
couple hours later near our AL and GA terminals. Apart from brief
MVFR/IFR visibility reductions possible due to a shower or storm,
VFR conditions will prevail through tonight and Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Surface high pressure will dominate through the weekend. Generally
light winds of 5 to 10 knots will continue with seas around 2
feet or less. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be expected,
especially in the overnight hours each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.
Dispersion values may be marginally low on Wednesday afternoon
across most of the area. Peak values are currently forecast in the
25-30 range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue each day. Any heavy
rainfall will be isolated but still has the potential to allow for
localized ponding of water. Widespread flooding is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  96  76  96  75 /  20  30  20  30  30
Panama City   78  91  79  91  79 /  20  30  10  30  10
Dothan        74  95  75  96  75 /  40  30  20  30  20
Albany        74  96  74  96  74 /  50  20  20  30  10
Valdosta      73  95  73  95  74 /  30  30  20  30  20
Cross City    73  95  74  95  75 /  20  20  20  20  20
Apalachicola  76  91  78  91  78 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...King/Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
620 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N VALDOSTA            30.91N 83.28W
07/19/2016                   LOWNDES            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF VALDOSTA

&&

MCDERMOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
624 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MADISON                 30.47N 83.42W
07/19/2016                   MADISON            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINE DOWN

&&

MCDERMOTT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
625 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N MADISON             30.51N 83.42W
07/19/2016                   MADISON            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN

&&

MCDERMOTT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
642 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

FLZ018-028-118-128-192315-
INLAND JEFFERSON FL-COASTAL JEFFERSON FL-COASTAL TAYLOR FL-
INLAND TAYLOR FL-
642 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR AND
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES EAST OF ST. MARKS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HELLS HALF ACRE...GOOSE PASTURE...ECONFINA...FANLEW AND SCANLON.

LAT...LON 3006 8409 3007 8415 3008 8415 3008 8411
      3009 8409 3010 8409 3009 8408 3011 8407
      3021 8408 3028 8407 3016 8380 2999 8389
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 115DEG 11KT 3010 8394

42-DVD