Alert archive / Georgia / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

July 19, 2016Ben Hill County, Georgia

NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this special weather statement at Jul 19, 2016, 4:08 PM EDT for Ben Hill County, Georgia. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2016, 4:08 PM EDT (20:08 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2016, 4:45 PM EDT
In force: 37 min
Issued by: NWS Tallahassee, FL

County Ben Hill County, GA

The radar

The Moody AFB radar (KVAX), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 182 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 792 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -54 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1071 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 33 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 19, 3:33 PM EDT, 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 3:33 PM EDT, 35 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
333 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Dry conditions have persisted through this morning and early
afternoon across our area, thanks to relatively dry air at mid
levels and weak upper level forcing. However, expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms to expand in coverage late this afternoon
into the evening as increased moisture develops, along with the sea
breeze pushing inland and eventually an upper level shortwave
approaching our northern areas this evening.

The sea breeze should remain fairly close to the coast through the
remainder of the afternoon and evening due to flow out of the
north/northeast. As a result, the most likely area for enhanced
coverage of showers and storms resulting from this feature will
remain near the coast, especially near the western Big Bend where
convergence will be maximized. Our northern counties will also see a
decent chance of showers and storms from late afternoon through the
evening, as fairly widespread thunderstorms have already developed
just north of our CWA and northerly flow will likely bring some of
these storms into SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Storms may persist a
couple hours past sunset, with upper level support increasing as a
shortwave approaches our area. However, expect most inland areas to
dry out later tonight as instability continues to decrease.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

An upper level ridge is centered over the central CONUS and will
remain over the plains throughout the short term period. CWA is
still present on the eastern side of the ridge, however, due to the
lack of defined shortwaves, there is less coverage expected on
Wednesday and Thursday compared to today. PoPs will be slightly less
than climatology at around 20-40 percent through the period. High
temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s inland and
in the lower 90s along the coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Heat
indices are expected to exceed 100 and possibly approach 105.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Deep layer ridge across the central CONUS will begin to flatten
and elongate as a series of shortwave troughs move across the
northern tier states. Not much relief is in the offering for the
southeast CONUS and our area with highs in the mid 90s, heat
indices in the low to mid 100s, and summertime diurnal
thunderstorms each day. An upper trough, seen in the medium range
model solutions moreso in the GFS than the ECMWF, will move into
the eastern Gulf of Mexico Monday towards the Mississippi delta
Tuesday. This will help to increase precipitation chances Monday
and especially Tuesday, increase cloud cover, and lower high
temperatures as a result. Confidence is low at this point but
edged in that direction as the GFS has shown some consistency the
past few model runs.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...

Showers and thunderstorms have been slow to develop in our area
early this afternoon, with all terminals experiencing VFR conditions.
However, scattered convection in central AL/GA will slowly push
southward into our area, along with scattered showers and storms
possibly developing later this afternoon along the sea breeze in
northern FL. Scattered showers and storms should dissipate during
the evening...likely by sunset near ECP and TLH, and possibly a
couple hours later near our AL and GA terminals. Apart from brief
MVFR/IFR visibility reductions possible due to a shower or storm,
VFR conditions will prevail through tonight and Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Surface high pressure will dominate through the weekend. Generally
light winds of 5 to 10 knots will continue with seas around 2
feet or less. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be expected,
especially in the overnight hours each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.
Dispersion values may be marginally low on Wednesday afternoon
across most of the area. Peak values are currently forecast in the
25-30 range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue each day. Any heavy
rainfall will be isolated but still has the potential to allow for
localized ponding of water. Widespread flooding is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  96  76  96  75 /  20  30  20  30  30
Panama City   78  91  79  91  79 /  20  30  10  30  10
Dothan        74  95  75  96  75 /  40  30  20  30  20
Albany        74  96  74  96  74 /  50  20  20  30  10
Valdosta      73  95  73  95  74 /  30  30  20  30  20
Cross City    73  95  74  95  75 /  20  20  20  20  20
Apalachicola  76  91  78  91  78 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...King/Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 3:14 PM EDT, 54 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

ALZ067-GAZ120>128-142-192000-
HENRY AL-WORTH GA-TURNER GA-LEE GA-TERRELL GA-CLAY GA-CALHOUN GA-
QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-EARLY GA-DOUGHERTY GA-
314 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HENRY...NORTHERN DOUGHERTY...
QUITMAN...NORTHWESTERN EARLY...WESTERN TURNER...NORTHERN CALHOUN...
TERRELL...CLAY...LEE...NORTHERN WORTH AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES UNTIL 400
PM EDT/300 PM CDT/...

AT 313 PM EDT/213 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR SMITHVILLE TO NEAR ABBEVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ABBEVILLE...FORT GAINES...MORGAN...CUTHBERT...LEESBURG...ASHBURN...
GEORGETOWN...ALBANY...DAWSON...EDISON...SHELLMAN...SMITHVILLE...
TURNER CITY...EAST ALBANY...WORTH...TERRELL...SYCAMORE...WARWICK...
SASSER AND BRONWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8495 3195 8496 3192 8491 3194 8444
      3196 8444 3187 8434 3192 8434 3191 8392
      3184 8394 3180 8380 3180 8366 3163 8362
      3143 8540 3171 8542 3170 8522 3174 8520
      3176 8513 3189 8513 3199 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 335DEG 10KT 3188 8420 3162 8527

ADL

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 4:08 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
408 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ130-192045-
BEN HILL GA-
408 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEN HILL COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

AT 407 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FITZGERALD...MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

WINDS NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FITZGERALD...FITZGERALD MUNICIPAL A/P...QUEENSLAND...BOWENS MILL...
LULAVILLE...RED BLUFF AND ASHTON.

LAT...LON 3167 8300 3168 8317 3165 8318 3165 8326
      3168 8327 3168 8332 3174 8332 3177 8334
      3177 8337 3176 8337 3176 8345 3185 8348
      3184 8322 3185 8318 3181 8313 3182 8311
      3178 8303 3178 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 013DEG 32KT 3177 8323

42-DVD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tallahassee, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 6:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Jefferson, Madison	68 min
Jul 19, 6:33 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TAE		42 min
Jul 19, 6:37 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TAE		23 min
Jul 19, 6:42 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Jefferson	33 min
Jul 19, 6:55 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TAE		50 min
Jul 19, 7:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Jefferson, Madison	25 min
Jul 19, 7:36 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Wakulla	24 min
Jul 19, 7:37 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TAE		68 min
Jul 19, 7:54 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Taylor	51 min
Jul 19, 7:59 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TAE		61 min
Jul 19, 3:14 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Calhoun, Clay, Lee, Quitman, Randolph, Terrell	46 min
Jul 19, 3:22 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Clay, Quitman, Randolph	53 min
Jul 19, 3:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Lee, Randolph, Terrell	50 min
Jul 19, 4:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Ben Hill, Irwin	36 min
Jul 19, 5:05 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Berrien	40 min
Jul 19, 5:07 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Lanier, Lowndes	38 min
Jul 19, 5:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TAE	Berrien, Cook, Lanier, Lowndes	65 min
Jul 19, 4:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	TAE	Houston	45 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Georgia, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.