Severe Thunderstorm Warning 235, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
129 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...

Showers and thunderstorms have been slow to develop in our area early
this afternoon, with all terminals experiencing VFR conditions.
However, scattered convection in central AL/GA will slowly push
southward into our area, along with scattered showers and storms
possibly developing later this afternoon along the sea breeze in
northern FL. Scattered showers and storms should dissipate during
the evening...likely by sunset near ECP and TLH, and possibly a
couple hours later near our AL and GA terminals. Apart from brief
MVFR/IFR visibility reductions possible due to a shower or storm,
VFR conditions will prevail through tonight and Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [907 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

No significant changes were made to today's forecast. The area of
likely PoPs this afternoon and early evening was slightly trimmed
back as relatively dry air could persist at mid/upper levels.
Also, upper level forcing does not look too impressive until a
shortwave drops into our area this evening, mainly after this
period. However, PWAT values should still remain fairly moist,
around 1.7-1.8" today, and forcing from the sea breeze will likely
spark some showers and thunderstorms across our area this
afternoon and early evening. Current forecast highs of mid 90s
inland and upper 80s along the coast still look to be on track for
our area.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The CWA remains on the eastern side of an upper level ridge centered
across the Plains. The NAM brings a vort max around the eastern
side of this ridge and across the CWA tonight, but this is not
clear in the GFS, although it does pick up on precip after 00z
tonight. Hi- res models are showing some consistency with
convection persisting after 00z tonight and thus have left 30-40
PoPs in for the first half of tonight. The CWA will remain on the
eastern side of the ridge through the short term but with the lack
of defined shortwaves, overall will see less coverage Wednesday
and Thursday compared to today.

High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s
Wednesday and Thursday, with the lower 90s along the coast. Heat
indices are forecast to be in the low to mid 100s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Upper level ridge remains centered over the central CONUS at the
beginning of the long term but begins to elongate on Saturday. There
is some evidence of a weakening short wave late in the week that
will be sliding across the southeast, but at this point it doesn't
seem to have too much impact on the PoPs. Overall expect near climo
PoPs of 30-40 percent through the weekend with a slight increase
next week as the upper ridge weakens. Expect highs mainly in the
mid 90s.

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will remain below headline criteria over the next
week. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less. Seas of 2 to 3 feet
are forecast for today with the higher values offshore but subside
to 2 feet or less by tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
each day with the better chances late overnight into the morning.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue each day. Any heavy
rainfall will be isolated but still has the potential to allow for
localized ponding of water. Widespread flooding is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  96  76  96  75 /  20  30  20  30  30
Panama City   78  91  79  91  79 /  20  30  10  30  10
Dothan        74  95  75  96  74 /  40  30  20  30  20
Albany        74  96  74  96  74 /  50  20  20  30  10
Valdosta      73  95  73  95  73 /  30  30  20  30  20
Cross City    73  95  74  95  73 /  20  20  20  20  20
Apalachicola  76  91  78  91  78 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

ALZ067-GAZ120>128-142-192000-
HENRY AL-WORTH GA-TURNER GA-LEE GA-TERRELL GA-CLAY GA-CALHOUN GA-
QUITMAN GA-RANDOLPH GA-EARLY GA-DOUGHERTY GA-
314 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HENRY...NORTHERN DOUGHERTY...
QUITMAN...NORTHWESTERN EARLY...WESTERN TURNER...NORTHERN CALHOUN...
TERRELL...CLAY...LEE...NORTHERN WORTH AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES UNTIL 400
PM EDT/300 PM CDT/...

AT 313 PM EDT/213 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR SMITHVILLE TO NEAR ABBEVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ABBEVILLE...FORT GAINES...MORGAN...CUTHBERT...LEESBURG...ASHBURN...
GEORGETOWN...ALBANY...DAWSON...EDISON...SHELLMAN...SMITHVILLE...
TURNER CITY...EAST ALBANY...WORTH...TERRELL...SYCAMORE...WARWICK...
SASSER AND BRONWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8495 3195 8496 3192 8491 3194 8444
      3196 8444 3187 8434 3192 8434 3191 8392
      3184 8394 3180 8380 3180 8366 3163 8362
      3143 8540 3171 8542 3170 8522 3174 8520
      3176 8513 3189 8513 3199 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 335DEG 10KT 3188 8420 3162 8527

ADL