Alert archive / Mississippi / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 504

November 29, 2016Ashley County, Chicot County, Arkansas; 18 parishes in Louisiana; 33 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 29, 2016, 1:48 PM CST for Ashley County, Chicot County, Arkansas; 18 parishes in Louisiana; 33 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 29, 2016, 1:48 PM CST (19:48 UTC)
Expired
Nov 29, 2016, 9:00 PM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 53 counties

Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Caldwell Parish, LA, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Grant Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, LaSalle Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Natchitoches Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Winn Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
70%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
40%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

68 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 29, 1:53 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVCaldwell, Grant, LaSalle, Winn52 min
Nov 29, 2:00 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANClaiborne, Copiah, Hinds45 min
Nov 29, 2:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVCaldwell43 min
Nov 29, 2:26 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVBienville, Bossier, Jackson, Lincoln, Natchitoches, Red River49 min
Nov 29, 2:42 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANFranklin48 min
Nov 29, 2:43 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVCaldwell17 min
Nov 29, 2:43 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANHinds19 min
Nov 29, 2:45 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANChicot45 min
Nov 29, 2:49 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVGrant, LaSalle, Winn41 min
Nov 29, 2:54 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVCaldwell, Winn36 min
Nov 29, 3:00 PM CSTTornado WarningJANFranklin, Madison, Tensas60 min
Nov 29, 3:09 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVGrant, Natchitoches, Winn36 min
Nov 29, 3:11 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANRankin49 min
Nov 29, 3:13 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVJackson, Lincoln, Ouachita, Union47 min
Nov 29, 3:20 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANLeflore, Sunflower55 min
Nov 29, 3:26 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVGrant, LaSalle, Natchitoches, Winn49 min
Nov 29, 3:30 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANHolmes, Humphreys45 min
Nov 29, 3:31 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVCaldwell, LaSalle, Winn44 min
Nov 29, 3:38 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANMadison41 min
Nov 29, 3:41 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVNatchitoches, Red River, Sabine, Winn49 min
Nov 29, 3:45 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANRankin, Scott45 min
Nov 29, 3:49 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVUnion13 min
Nov 29, 3:50 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVNatchitoches, Sabine, Winn25 min
Nov 29, 3:58 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANGrenada47 min
Nov 29, 4:00 PM CSTTornado WarningJANRankin, Scott30 min
Nov 29, 4:09 PM CSTTornado WarningJANFranklin37 min
Nov 29, 4:12 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVCaldwell, LaSalle, Winn48 min
Nov 29, 4:14 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCarroll, Holmes46 min
Nov 29, 4:17 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANLeake, Neshoba, Winston43 min
Nov 29, 4:20 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedJANLeake, Scott25 min
Nov 29, 4:22 PM CSTTornado WarningJANGrenada38 min
Nov 29, 4:23 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANIssaquena, Warren, Yazoo52 min
Nov 29, 4:30 PM CSTTornado WarningJANCarroll, Montgomery45 min
Nov 29, 4:32 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVCaldwell, Grant, LaSalle, Natchitoches, Winn58 min
Nov 29, 4:40 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVNatchitoches, Sabine, Winn23 min
Nov 29, 4:41 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedJANLeake, Neshoba37 min
Nov 29, 4:42 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVNatchitoches, Sabine48 min
Nov 29, 4:44 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANLeflore, Sunflower61 min
Nov 29, 4:49 PM CSTTornado WarningJANNeshoba, Noxubee, Winston41 min
Nov 29, 4:54 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANMadison, Yazoo55 min
Nov 29, 4:59 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVCaldwell16 min
Nov 29, 5:01 PM CSTTornado WarningJANMadison, Yazoo29 min
Nov 29, 5:01 PM CSTTornado WarningJANChoctaw, Webster44 min
Nov 29, 5:02 PM CSTTornado WarningJANFranklin, Richland43 min
Nov 29, 5:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANKemper, Neshoba, Winston29 min
Nov 29, 5:17 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVCaldwell, Grant, LaSalle43 min
Nov 29, 5:21 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCarroll, Grenada39 min
Nov 29, 5:26 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVGrant, Natchitoches, Sabine, Winn49 min
Nov 29, 5:29 PM CSTTornado WarningJANLowndes, Noxubee, Oktibbeha, Winston46 min
Nov 29, 5:37 PM CSTTornado WarningJANClay, Oktibbeha, Webster38 min
Nov 29, 5:42 PM CSTTornado WarningJANKemper, Noxubee, Winston48 min
Nov 29, 5:44 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANGrenada46 min
Nov 29, 6:06 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANMorehouse39 min
Nov 29, 6:13 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVGrant, Natchitoches, Winn32 min
Nov 29, 6:16 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedJANClay8 min
Nov 29, 6:18 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAttala, Leake27 min
Nov 29, 6:18 PM CSTTornado WarningJANLowndes, Noxubee42 min
Nov 29, 6:38 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANIssaquena, Sharkey, Yazoo52 min
Nov 29, 6:42 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAshley, Chicot30 min
Nov 29, 6:43 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVCaldwell, Grant, LaSalle, Winn47 min
Nov 29, 6:43 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANChoctaw, Winston47 min
Nov 29, 7:10 PM CSTTornado WarningJANNoxubee, Winston50 min
Nov 29, 7:27 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVJackson, Lincoln, Ouachita, Union33 min
Nov 29, 7:42 PM CSTTornado WarningJANLowndes, Noxubee, Oktibbeha48 min
Nov 29, 7:49 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANFranklin41 min
Nov 29, 8:18 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedJANLowndes22 min
Nov 29, 8:35 PM CSTTornado WarningJANHolmes, Yazoo45 min
Nov 29, 8:42 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANMadison, Tensas63 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 134 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2016-11-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2016-11-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 179 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2018 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
179 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
254 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

926 
WWUS20 KWNS 291946
SEL4  
SPC WW 291946
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-300300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
  PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
  PARTS OF WESTERNA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
  900 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
FROM LOUISIANA INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED THIS EVENING.  INITIALLY...THE
SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO.  BY LATE EVENING...
THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
POTENTIALLY A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF NATCHITOCHES
LA TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF GREENWOOD MS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

...THOMPSON

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 28, 6:36 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCSaint Helena, Tangipahoa, Washington2 hr
Nov 28, 8:39 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEast Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Livingston, Saint Helena, Tangipahoa, Washington and 1 more96 min
Nov 28, 11:38 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLivingston, Saint Tammany, Tangipahoa, Washington3 hr
Nov 29, 9:51 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBienville, Caldwell, Catahoula, De Soto, Franklin, Grant and 10 more84 min
Nov 29, 12:38 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAvoyelles, Caldwell, Catahoula, Concordia, East Carroll, Franklin and 13 more2 hr
Nov 29, 4:20 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaldwell, Catahoula, East Carroll, Franklin, LaSalle, Madison and 2 more55 min
Nov 29, 5:37 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Ascension, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu and 12 more2 hr
Nov 29, 3:08 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Clay and 17 more2 hr
Nov 29, 3:48 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAlcorn, Benton, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Itawamba, Lafayette and 12 more7 hr
Nov 29, 5:24 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCItawamba, Tishomingo96 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2016Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2016Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.