Severe Thunderstorm Warning 429, NWS Jackson, MS

335 
WWUS54 KJAN 292304 RRA
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
504 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

MSC133-292313-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0429.000000T0000Z-161129T2345Z/
SUNFLOWER MS-
504 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL SUNFLOWER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3372 9031 3369 9029 3374 9024 3372 9022
      3372 9014 3368 9014 3365 9010 3361 9012
      3359 9010 3359 9012 3350 9045 3374 9045
      3381 9018 3376 9019 3375 9030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 241DEG 34KT 3361 9048 

$$

MSC083-292345-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0429.000000T0000Z-161129T2345Z/
LEFLORE MS-
504 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CST
FOR NORTHERN LEFLORE COUNTY...

AT 503 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BLAINE...OR 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF RULEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SUNNYSIDE...MINTER CITY AND MONEY AROUND 525 PM CST. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
SCHLATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3372 9031 3369 9029 3374 9024 3372 9022
      3372 9014 3368 9014 3365 9010 3361 9012
      3359 9010 3359 9012 3350 9045 3374 9045
      3381 9018 3376 9019 3375 9030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 241DEG 34KT 3361 9048 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

EC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
349 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

...SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday...Latest satellite imagery showed a closed
upper low over Western MN. Strong southwest flow continued across the
region around the closed feature. This feature was associated with a
130 plus knot upper jet. On the surface a warm front was pushing
north bringing in a moist unstable airmass in strong low level
southerly flow in response to the developing storm system. A cold
front was located across the Southern Plains. Area radars were
picking up some isolated severe storms across the CWA with a tornado
watch in effect until 9 pm. For late this afternoon into tonight deep
strong shear, 300-400 effective helicity, and instability will
continue to increase across the region which will favor the
development of severe storms with some tornadoes possible. Latest CAM
guidance shows some isolated severe storms for this afternoon and a
broken QLCS for tonight along the cold front. A better severe risk
develops for tonight as a 40-50 knot low level jet and 0-6 km shear
60-70 knots develops. This will help to support a risk of tornadoes
across the CWA during the overnight hours. Timing across the region
will be tough to pin down due to the large window of severe weather
time from now to 4 am. With the strong low level shear in place a one
or two strong tornadoes may be possible. SPC has put some of our
northern counties for a moderate risk of severe with the strong
tornado potential. With the possibility of nighttime
tornadoes,residents are urged to have an emergency plan in place
should Watches or Warnings be issued for their location. This will be
aided by a strong shortwave moving through the Southern Plains. The
models shows a broken line moving ahead of the front across the
region for tonight. The line will be generally parallel to deep layer
flow, which will promote the linear mode of the broken line. So the
primary risks for tonight will be tornadoes, damaging winds, and
quarter sized hail. The line is expected to move out of the CWA by 4
am. QPF totals of 1 to 2 inches across eastern portions of the
forecast area indicate a marginal threat for flooding, but recent
long-term dry conditions in those areas should limit the overall
threat for flash flooding tonight. Heavy rainfall could still produce
localized flooding in low areas. In the wake of the front the rains
will exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will build
into the region from the west during the afternoon.

As far as temps are concern lows tonight will be in the upper 40s
northwest to the lower 60s southeast. Highs for Wednesday will range
from the upper 50s northwest to the upper 60s southeast./17/

Wednesday night through next Monday....Slightly cooler drier
conditions will exist across the region behind the front Wednesday
night through Friday, as surface high pressure builds into the
forecast area and quasi-zonal flow sets up over the region.
Temperatures will be a little closer to normal through Friday as
highs range from the upper 50s and lower 60s, and overnight lows dip
back into the 30s.

Models continue to generally agree with another slug of moisture and
rain filtering into the ArkLaMiss by mid-weekend as a low pressure
system develops along the Texas Coast/Gulf of Mexico, and shifts
east northeast towards the north central gulf coast. This moisture
will overspread the forecast area late Saturday into Sunday. There
does remain some timing differences between the ECMWF, GFS, and
Canadian with regard to this system.  With this said, we should
maintain a cool rain late Saturday through at least early Monday as
temperatures during this time period will generally range from the
mid 50s to lower 60s for highs, and lows each night fall into the
middle 40s. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion
Increasing moisture from the south will lead to a potential for
scattered showers and some strong thunderstorms this afternoon.
General timing and location of storms will require taf amendments as
convection develops. There is greater confidence in severe storms
after 00Z Wednesday, so have timing of greatest confidence for
impacts from these storms in TAFs. Expect gusty and erratic winds,
locally heavy rainfall, and MVFR or lower conditions as showers and
storms move through each site. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       56  63  35  60 / 100  27   1   0
Meridian      60  66  35  61 / 100  71   2   0
Vicksburg     51  62  33  61 /  90  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   63  68  37  63 /  99  74   2   0
Natchez       54  63  36  59 /  92  13   0   0
Greenville    49  59  34  58 /  95   9   0   0
Greenwood     51  60  33  58 /  96  11   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

17/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
211 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

ARZ074-MSZ018-302015-
ASHLEY-BOLIVAR-
211 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
HAZARDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...QUARTER SIZED
HAIL...AND TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE4.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

ARZ075-302015-
CHICOT-
211 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
MAIN HAZARDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...QUARTER
SIZED HAIL...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE4.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ025>051-053>057-059>065-072-302015-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-MARION-
211 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES PRIMARILY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 2 AM WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
HAZARDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS... AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE4.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

MSZ019-052-058-066-073-074-302015-
SUNFLOWER-LAUDERDALE-CLARKE-JONES-LAMAR-FORREST-
211 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES PRIMARILY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 4 AM WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
HAZARDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS... AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE*.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE
LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE

LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/ONLINE/
   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
356 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     HAIL             2 W BRANDON             32.28N 90.04W
11/29/2016  M1.25 INCH       RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

&&

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     TORNADO          2 S BRANCH              32.40N 89.71W
11/29/2016                   SCOTT              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES ARE DOWN IN ITS PATH.

&&

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
421 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     TORNADO          2 N FORKVILLE           32.49N 89.66W
11/29/2016                   SCOTT              MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON HIGHWAY 13 TREES AND POWER POLES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
428 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GRENADA                 33.78N 89.81W
11/29/2016                   GRENADA            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PARKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             TCHULA                  33.18N 90.22W
11/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       HOLMES             MS   PUBLIC

&&

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
441 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     HAIL             5 NE REDWOOD            32.54N 90.75W
11/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PARKER