Severe Thunderstorm Warning 410, NWS Jackson, MS

509 
WWUS54 KJAN 290058
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
658 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

MSC075-290130-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0410.000000T0000Z-161129T0130Z/
LAUDERDALE MS-
658 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CST
FOR EASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY...

AT 657 PM CST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAUDERDALE TO ALAMUCHA...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3233 8842 3229 8865 3258 8859 3258 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 253DEG 52KT 3248 8849 3236 8846 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DC

331 
WWUS54 KJAN 290104
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
704 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

MSC075-290114-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0410.000000T0000Z-161129T0130Z/
LAUDERDALE MS-
704 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND HAVE EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3233 8842 3229 8865 3258 8859 3258 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 256DEG 46KT 3250 8840 3238 8837 

$$

DC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
607 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

...SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH MORE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push eastward across SE
MS through the evening hours. Along and ahead of the line, ceilings
range from MVFR to VFR, though there are visby reductions to IFR in
+RA along the line. Some of the storms along the line could be severe
with 50 kt winds and a tornado. Mostly VFR stratus persist behind
the line. Overnight, areas of fog and low stratus are expected to
develop across the region. Ceilings and visibilities will improve
through mid morning. Southerly winds will become gusty again during
the day, with gusts around 20 kt possible. Scattered showers and
perhaps a storm will begin to spread across S MS by late tomorrow
afternoon, with additional severe storms possible later tomorrow
night. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday:
Tornado Watch 502 has been posted for a large chunk of the CWA
through 03Z. So far, things are playing out largely as anticipated,
with one notable exception. A large area of stratiform rain set up
across the Delta this morning significantly inhibiting
destabilization in that area and areas to the north. As a result,
those areas were largely spared, and we have downgraded them to a
limited threat in our graphics/HWO.

Otherwise, a QLCS has developed and now extends from the I-55
corridor southwestward to along the MS River. Strong winds are
occurring along this line and some wind damage has already been
reported across the Delta. This portion of the line will continue
eastward and be through the Golden Triangle by around 6pm. Though we
cannot rule out a mesovortex developing along this portion of the
line in the northern portion of the CWA, the primary threat in that
portion of the watch will be damaging straight line wind gusts.
Mainly south of I-20, scattered supercells have also developed. This
convection has shown more of a propensity to rotate, and will begin
moving into our portions of central Louisiana and south Mississippi
through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Though some
severe threat will persist into the Pine Belt later this evening,
better forcing and wind shear will be pulling away from the area, so
the threat will be somewhat lower in that area as well.

Wind gusts have been impressive through the day today, with gusts of
40-50 mph across the entire area. Strong gradient wind gusts will
continue ahead of the storms through shortly after sunset given the
strong pressure falls across the area.

We'll see a break in the action overnight with perhaps a few showers
lingering along the I-59 corridor. Late tonight into early tomorrow
morning, high-res models have been offering strong indications of
areas of fog developing. This would be more of an advection fog event
as the front remains stalled across the area and warm and moist
advection continues into a rain-cooled airmass. This fog could become
locally dense, but with much of our attention on this afternoon's
storms, I deferred adding this to the HWO or considering an advisory
until we have a better chance to look at things later this evening.

Rain looks to hold off for the first half of the day Tuesday, though
some warm advection showers or storms may begin to develop across the
southern half of the area by the afternoon as the next shortwave
rounds the upper trough over the center of the country. Though it
won't be as windy as it was today, breezy conditions are expected
again tomorrow as the pressure gradient tightens through the day and
a 20 to 30 kt low level jet remains in place over the area. /DL/

Tuesday night through Sunday:
Another round of severe storms is currently expected Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning. Persistent strong low level flow will
further moisten and destabilize the atmosphere over the region
heading into Tuesday night. This increase in instability, in addition
to sufficient wind shear, a stalled boundary over the eastern half of
the forecast area, and yet another strong cold front rapidly swinging
into and through the area from the west overnight, will result in
severe storms developing across the region, primarily from 7 PM
Tuesday through 8 AM Wednesday.

Confidence is currently greatest that locations along and east of a
Starkville, to Jackson metro, to Meadville line will experience the
best potential for storms producing damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or
greater, quarter-size hail, and tornadoes.  Thus, I'll maintain the
current "Elevated" area of severe storms over this area.  A
"Limited" threat for severe storms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and quarter-size hail will exist just west of this line,
excluding a large portion of the Delta region where severe storms
are not expected.  This being said, given said increased levels of
both instability, wind shear, and forcing with this system,
confidence is slowly increasing that a strong tornado can't be ruled
out with this setup.  While I'll hold off this package, parameters
for such tornado potential will continue to be monitored. If
confidence increases further, an upgrade from "Elevated" to
"Significant" may be needed in the HWO for a portion of the eastern
half of the CWA during this time.

Behind the passage of Wednesday morning's front, rain chances and
clouds will exit east into Alabama as high pressure builds into the
region from the west.  This will result in quiet and cool conditions
Thursday into Friday.  Rain chances look to increase through the day
Saturday and into Sunday as another system is currently progged to
shift east northeast off the Texas coast and towards the central
gulf coast. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       55  79  55  64 / 100  26  98  30
Meridian      58  81  58  65 / 100  30 100  76
Vicksburg     53  77  50  63 /  53  25  84  13
Hattiesburg   63  80  63  68 /  90  36 100  80
Natchez       56  75  54  64 /  63  35  89  17
Greenville    50  75  48  60 /  21  15  63  10
Greenwood     52  78  49  61 /  56  17  82  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for MSZ046-051-052-
     056>058-063>066-072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

DL/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
641 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>051-053>056-
059-060-300045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
641 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

A ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 8 AM
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...QUARTER SIZED HAIL...AND TORNADOES. LOCATIONS WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
A STARKVILLE...TO JACKSON...TO MEADVILLE LINE.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE4.GIF)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MSZ052-057-058-061>066-072>074-300045-
LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
641 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, INCLUDING THE PINE BELT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS, BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE1.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 8 AM
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...QUARTER SIZED HAIL...AND TORNADOES.  LOCATIONS WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST
OF A STARKVILLE...TO JACKSON...TO MEADVILLE LINE.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE4.GIF)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE
LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE

LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/ONLINE/
   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
554 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N CLINTON             32.40N 90.33W
11/28/2016                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN THE BELLEWOOD SUBDIVISION.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
608 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARPENTER               32.03N 90.68W
11/28/2016                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES DOWN ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE COUNTY.

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E CRYSTAL SPRINGS     31.99N 90.32W
11/28/2016                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE COUNTY.

&&

COX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
613 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHUQUALAK               32.98N 88.57W
11/28/2016                   NOXUBEE            MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE SNAPPED IN SHUQUALAK

&&

COX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
627 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW BURNS              32.19N 89.60W
11/28/2016                   SMITH              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ACROSS NORTHWEST SMITH COUNTY.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
629 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE PINEVILLE          32.17N 89.36W
11/28/2016                   SMITH              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ACROSS NORTHEAST SMITH COUNTY.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
638 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE EDINBURG          32.76N 89.32W
11/28/2016                   NESHOBA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ACROSS HWY 427 NEAR LEAKE/NESHOBA COUNTY LINE

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE EDINBURG          32.77N 89.26W
11/28/2016                   NESHOBA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON RD 147.

&&

COX