Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 933
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 15, 2016, 12:57 PM CDT for 30 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 15, 2016, 12:57 PM CDT (17:57 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 15, 2016, 3:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 30 counties
Adams County, WI, Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Clark County, WI, Columbia County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Jackson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Portage County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI, Wood County, WI
The radar
The La Crosse radar (KARX), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 511 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 28 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -2 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.1
The text
As transmitted.
693
ACUS11 KWNS 151758
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151757
WIZ000-152000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 151757Z - 152000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN
AND CENTRAL WI. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN
VERTICAL CU GROWTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN WI...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD/SE
OF THE UPPER CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER NERN MN. WV IMAGERY
INDICATES A LOBE OF IMPLIED ASCENT SHIFTING QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL MN ON THE SWRN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO NWRN
WI OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AS THIS OCCURS...CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION /MIXED-LAYER
CAPE NOW IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE OVER WRN AND SRN WI/ SUGGESTS
THAT STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR -- INITIALLY OVER NWRN WI AND
THEN SPREADING SEWD WITH TIME.
WITH A BELT OF ENHANCED /50 KT/ WNWLYS ON THE WRN AND SRN FRINGES OF
THE LOW TO SPREAD EWD INTO WI THIS AFTERNOON...SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HAIL/WIND RISK
ACROSS THE AREA. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE OF AN UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN WEAK -- AND VEERING -- BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...AMBIENT VORTICITY INVOF THE UPPER LOW MAY SUPPORT SOME
RISK FOR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADIC SPIN-UPS LOCALLY. WW MAY BE NEEDED IN
THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF WI TO ADDRESS THE EVOLVING SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 46009086 45949040 45388912 44438786 43548800 43288881
43519016 44369163 44799144 45479135 45879123 46009086SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 8:36 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buffalo, Crawford, Grant, Iowa, Jackson, La Crosse and 6 more | 84 min |
| Jun 15, 2:13 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adams, Brown, Calumet, Columbia, Dodge, Fond du Lac and 21 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 15, 3:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Brown, Calumet, Columbia, Dodge, Fond du Lac and 24 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 15, 5:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Calumet, Columbia, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake and 6 more | 92 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.