Alert archive / Montana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 852
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 9, 2016, 2:51 PM MDT for 25 counties in Montana. It was in force for 84 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 9, 2016, 2:51 PM MDT (20:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 9, 2016, 4:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 84 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 25 counties
Blaine County, MT, Custer County, MT, Daniels County, MT, Dawson County, MT, Fergus County, MT, Gallatin County, MT, Garfield County, MT, Golden Valley County, MT, Judith Basin County, MT, McCone County, MT, Meagher County, MT, Musselshell County, MT, Park County, MT, Petroleum County, MT, Phillips County, MT, Prairie County, MT, Richland County, MT, Roosevelt County, MT, Rosebud County, MT, Stillwater County, MT, Sweet Grass County, MT, Treasure County, MT, Valley County, MT, Wheatland County, MT, Yellowstone County, MT
The radar
The Billings radar (KBLX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 187 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 25 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -250 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1305 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 56 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 19 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 72 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
970
ACUS11 KWNS 092051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092051
MTZ000-092215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 239...
VALID 092051Z - 092215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 239
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CNTRL/ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON. SVR HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT
/DIAMETER 2 INCHES OR GREATER/...MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ENEWD/EWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL MT FROM MEAGHER COUNTY TO FERGUS
COUNTY...SPREADING INTO PETROLEUM COUNTY AND EVENTUALLY EWD INTO
PARTS OF GARFIELD AND VALLEY COUNTIES. THE PRESENCE OF 1000-2000
J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH 50-65 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH SVR HAIL -- SOME POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT --
AND SVR WIND POTENTIAL. SFC OBSERVATIONS AT LEWISTOWN AND JORDAN
INDICATE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S WITH A NORTH
WIND...IMPLYING SUPPORT OF AMPLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WITH AN ELONGATED
HODOGRAPH. DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW...HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/LONG
LENGTH THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION RESIDING NEAR/N OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS NEAR/E OF
HAVRE AND NEAR BOZEMAN WILL ALSO POSE A SVR RISK WHILE SPREADING
EWD.
..COHEN.. 06/09/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 45721168 47401113 48820828 48870532 48520434 47050426
46270539 45590929 45151130 45721168SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 11:44 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broadwater, Fergus, Garfield, Golden Valley, Judith Basin, McCone and 4 more | 3 hr |
| Jun 9, 1:01 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Blaine, Broadwater, Cascade, Chouteau, Custer, Daniels and 26 more | 9 hr |
| Jun 9, 1:48 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Fergus, Garfield, Judith Basin, McCone, Petroleum | 57 min |
| Jun 9, 4:06 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Powder River | 84 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.