Alert archive / Montana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 848

June 9, 20165 counties in Montana

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 9, 2016, 1:48 PM MDT for 5 counties in Montana. It was in force for 57 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 9, 2016, 1:48 PM MDT (19:48 UTC)
Expired
Jun 9, 2016, 2:45 PM MDT
In force
57 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Fergus County, MT, Garfield County, MT, Judith Basin County, MT, McCone County, MT, Petroleum County, MT

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Glasgow Intl Airport, MT at 12:00Z on 2016-06-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 73 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Glasgow Intl Airport, MT at 12:00Z on 2016-06-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 1 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
73 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-354 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2243 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
23 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

052 
ACUS11 KWNS 091948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091948 
MTZ000-092045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0848
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL MT

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

VALID 091948Z - 092045Z

SUMMARY...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SVR HAIL IS
PLANNED FOR THE 20Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

DISCUSSION...INCREASING COVERAGE OF SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL...SOME
SIGNIFICANT...WARRANTS OUTLOOK UPGRADE TO ENH FOR THE 20Z DAY 1
OUTLOOK. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ARE FORTHCOMING IN OUTLOOK.

..COHEN/SMITH.. 06/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   46920876 46591053 47001072 47411011 47750870 47990742
            48100632 47890558 47400584 47120678 46920876

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 9, 11:44 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBroadwater, Fergus, Garfield, Golden Valley, Judith Basin, McCone and 4 more3 hr
Jun 9, 1:01 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBlaine, Broadwater, Cascade, Chouteau, Custer, Daniels and 26 more9 hr
Jun 9, 2:51 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Custer, Daniels, Dawson, Fergus, Gallatin and 19 more84 min
Jun 9, 4:06 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Powder River84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.