Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 786

May 30, 2016Jackson County, Lavaca County, Victoria County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 30, 2016, 9:41 AM CDT for Jackson County, Lavaca County, Victoria County, Texas. It was in force for 64 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 30, 2016, 9:41 AM CDT (14:41 UTC)
Expired
May 30, 2016, 10:45 AM CDT
In force
64 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Jackson County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Victoria County, TX

The radar

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 12:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Corpus Christi, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-05-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2046 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Corpus Christi, TX at 12:00Z on 2016-05-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 24 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2046 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-8 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
774 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
79 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

526 
ACUS11 KWNS 301441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301441 
TXZ000-301545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 301441Z - 301545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE TX COAST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ISOLATED EXTENT OF THE
THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT KT20 SURFACE OBSERVATION /ABOUT 30 MI NNW OF
VCT/ REPORTED AT 48 KT GUST NEAR A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT WITHIN LINE
MOVING INTO LAVACA COUNTY. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE IS VERY MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SUGGESTING FORWARD-PROPAGATION WILL
PERSIST WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH THE LACK
OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...THE OVERALL SVR
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STAY ISOLATED. SMALL SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE SVR
THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29369695 29659669 29359621 28529665 28469729 29369695

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 29, 7:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 22 more85 min
May 29, 7:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBell, Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman and 35 more9 hr
May 29, 9:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 28 more2 hr
May 29, 11:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 18 more83 min
May 30, 2:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Culberson, Ector and 12 more2 hr
May 30, 5:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBorden, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche and 15 more2 hr
May 30, 6:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBorden, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Dawson and 15 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.