Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 786
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 30, 2016, 9:41 AM CDT for Jackson County, Lavaca County, Victoria County, Texas. It was in force for 64 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 30, 2016, 9:41 AM CDT (14:41 UTC)
- Expired
- May 30, 2016, 10:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 64 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Jackson County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Victoria County, TX
The radar
The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 12:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2046 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -8 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 774 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 24 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 79 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.4
The text
As transmitted.
526 ACUS11 KWNS 301441 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301441 TXZ000-301545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 301441Z - 301545Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ISOLATED EXTENT OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. DISCUSSION...RECENT KT20 SURFACE OBSERVATION /ABOUT 30 MI NNW OF VCT/ REPORTED AT 48 KT GUST NEAR A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT WITHIN LINE MOVING INTO LAVACA COUNTY. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SUGGESTING FORWARD-PROPAGATION WILL PERSIST WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STAY ISOLATED. SMALL SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. ..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29369695 29659669 29359621 28529665 28469729 29369695
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 7:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 22 more | 85 min |
| May 29, 7:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman and 35 more | 9 hr |
| May 29, 9:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 28 more | 2 hr |
| May 29, 11:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 18 more | 83 min |
| May 30, 2:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Brewster, Crane, Crockett, Culberson, Ector and 12 more | 2 hr |
| May 30, 5:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Borden, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche and 15 more | 2 hr |
| May 30, 6:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Borden, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Dawson and 15 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.