Mesoscale Discussion 764

Issued

May 27, 2016, 1:02 PM CDT (18:02 UTC)

Expired

May 27, 2016, 2:30 PM CDT

In force

88 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

80%

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 15 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224May 27, 2:30 PM CDT

740 
ACUS11 KWNS 271802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271802 
OKZ000-KSZ000-271930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL KANSAS AND N CNTRL INTO WEST CNTRL
OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 271802Z - 271930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INITIATION OF STORMS MAY COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO BEFORE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.  STRONGER STORMS LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...INHIBITION IS WEAKENING FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY STRONGER SURFACE
HEATING ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS.  THIS IS CURRENTLY NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35/135
CORRIDORS...IN ADVANCE OF AN INITIAL SOUTHEASTWARD SURGE OF COOL AIR
INTO THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW/TROUGH
NOW BEGINNING TO  TURN NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.  THIS IS ALSO TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BROAD POOL OF COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IMPACTED BY THE LARGE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER.

WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION...AND MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER SYSTEM...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO YIELD
INCREASINGLY SIZABLE CAPE /2000+ J PER KG/.  AT LEAST SOME WEAKENING
OF 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW...NOW PRESENT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-40 KT CYCLONIC/SOUTHWESTERLY
500 MB FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT HAS A
MORE PRONOUNCED WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST IMMINENT NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER...BETWEEN ENID AND WICHITA...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 19-20Z. 
THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST...BEFORE GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD WITH STRONGER
MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 05/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   35559921 36199884 37079890 38039891 38589885 39009834
            39069687 38329648 37229615 36309628 35529637 34809718
            34709856 35009920 35559921

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.