Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 679

May 22, 20167 counties in Kansas; Hitchcock County, Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 22, 2016, 5:45 PM CDT for 7 counties in Kansas; Hitchcock County, Nebraska. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 22, 2016, 5:45 PM CDT (22:45 UTC)
Expired: May 22, 2016, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

Counties Cheyenne County, KS, Logan County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Hitchcock County, NE

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193May 22, 6:20 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 180 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2901 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 203 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 249 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

783 
ACUS11 KWNS 222246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222245 
KSZ000-NEZ000-230045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0679
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS AND EXTREME SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 222245Z - 230045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO INITIATE OVER
NWRN KS THIS EVENING. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY STORMS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A WW...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A BAND OF
TOWERING CUMULUS FORMING ALONG A N-S ORIENTED CONVERGENCE ZONE IN
NWRN KS. THIS ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS MOVING WWD WHERE IT WILL
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS CORRIDOR
IS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE AND
ONLY MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING. THIS REGION REMAINS
NORTH OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTH OF THE ZONE OF
STRONGER FORCING ALOFT...WHICH MAY LIMIT FUTURE STORM COVERAGE AND
DURATION...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WWD-MOVING
CONVERGENCE ZONE MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE AND AS LLJ STRENGTHENS.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING BUT
MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN MODEST...SUGGESTING ANY SUPERCELLS
SHOULD TREND TOWARD HP IN CHARACTER. DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN LIMITED TO A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW BEFORE SFC LAYER COOLS
AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 05/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40210062 39320064 38650085 38270149 38640200 40010187
            40290146 40210062

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 21, 9:02 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Gove, Logan, Scott, Thomas, Wallace, Wichita	58 min
May 22, 1:39 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Finney, Grant, Gray, Haskell, Meade, Morton and 2 more	2 hr
May 22, 2:48 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Finney, Grant, Gray, Haskell, Kearny, Meade and 2 more	9 hr
May 22, 6:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Cheyenne, Decatur, Ford, Gove, Graham, Greeley and 13 more	6 hr
May 22, 2:54 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arthur, Blaine, Brown, Chase, Cherry, Dundy and 13 more	96 min
May 22, 3:20 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Arthur, Blaine, Brown, Cherry, Custer, Deuel and 10 more	7 hr
May 22, 6:35 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arthur, Cherry, Deuel, Garden, Grant, Hooker and 8 more	115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.