Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 672

May 21, 20166 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 21, 2016, 9:02 PM CDT for 6 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 58 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 21, 2016, 9:02 PM CDT (02:02 UTC)
Expired
May 21, 2016, 10:00 PM CDT
In force
58 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Gove County, KS, Logan County, KS, Scott County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 2.0 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2016-05-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1468 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2016-05-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 288 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1468 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-193 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1183 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
288 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
442 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
8.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

077 
ACUS11 KWNS 220203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220202 
KSZ000-220300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0902 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST AND NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 187...

VALID 220202Z - 220300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 187 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE GREATEST SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM
/THROUGH 03Z/ IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO A SMALL PART OF WEST-CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST KS /INCLUDING THE COUNTIES OF NORTHERN
WICHITA...LOGAN...EASTERN WALLACE...SOUTHEAST SHERMAN AND SOUTHWEST
THOMAS/.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSES
SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS IN
WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KS IS ANCHORED ALONG A WARM FRONT...WHICH
EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST CO THROUGH LOGAN COUNTY TO SEWARD/MEADE
COUNTIES KS.  ALTHOUGH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS SUPPORTING AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION...FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE CAP
EVIDENT IN THE DDC 00Z SOUNDING...A 30-40 KT SSELY LOW-LEVEL JET IS
MAINTAINING AN INFLOW OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE STORM
CLUSTER.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WILL BE SUSTAINED
SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF STORM ORGANIZATION.  IF STORM
INTENSITIES DO NOT WEAKEN PRIOR TO 03Z...THEN A PORTION OF WW 187
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME BY THE LOCAL WFO.

MEANWHILE...AN INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION WITH SOUTHWARD
EXTENT INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST CO WILL
LIMIT NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

..PETERS.. 05/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38560030 38440100 38510162 38940179 39650164 39680125
            39500073 39100037 38560030

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 22, 1:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFinney, Grant, Gray, Haskell, Meade, Morton and 2 more2 hr
May 22, 2:48 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCFinney, Grant, Gray, Haskell, Kearny, Meade and 2 more9 hr
May 22, 5:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Logan, Rawlins, Sherman, Thomas, Wallace and 1 more2 hr
May 22, 6:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Ford, Gove, Graham, Greeley and 13 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.