Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 678

May 22, 201620 counties in North Dakota; 10 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 22, 2016, 2:57 PM MDT for 20 counties in North Dakota; 10 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 22, 2016, 2:57 PM MDT (20:57 UTC)
Expired: May 22, 2016, 4:30 PM MDT
In force: 93 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 60%

All 30 counties

Adams County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Renville County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND, Campbell County, SD, Corson County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Perkins County, SD, Potter County, SD, Walworth County, SD, Ziebach County, SD

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 17 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192May 22, 4:20 PM MDT

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 21 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 900 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 277 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 339 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

555 
ACUS11 KWNS 222058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222057 
NDZ000-SDZ000-222230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0678
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN SD AND WRN/CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 222057Z - 222230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY 21-22Z...WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE INTO THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WATCH ISSUANCE
MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...AT 2045Z...CU WAS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN THE VICINITY
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN ND...AND ALSO FROM N-CNTRL SD W OF
ABR INTO S-CNTRL ND...WHERE SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME ENHANCED
CONFLUENCE WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
GENERATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. 

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED MODEST DESTABILIZATION TO
OCCUR...WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS WRN ND TO
THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS N-CNTRL SD. STRONG SSWLY MIDLEVEL
AHEAD ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND/SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF
STORM MODES...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. 

WHILE STORMS COULD BE RATHER ISOLATED IN THE SHORT TERM...AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY
EARLY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...AN INCREASINGLY LINEAR MODE IS
EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND. A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES TOWARD EVENING.

..DEAN/HART.. 05/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   44560205 45250253 46300266 47680224 48830175 49010155
            48990011 48209967 47229918 46439889 45099885 44560205

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 22, 4:21 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barnes, Benson, Bottineau, Burleigh, Cavalier, Dickey and 25 more	8 hr
May 22, 1:54 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Jones, Lyman, Mellette, Stanley, Todd, Tripp	96 min
May 22, 2:20 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bennett, Haakon, Hughes, Jackson, Jones, Lyman and 5 more	7 hr
May 22, 5:35 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bennett, Haakon, Hughes, Jackson, Jones, Lyman and 4 more	115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.