Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 620
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 12, 2016, 9:10 AM CDT for 6 states. It was in force for 95 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 12, 2016, 9:10 AM CDT (14:10 UTC)
- Expired
- May 12, 2016, 10:45 AM CDT
- In force
- 95 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 52 counties
Colbert County, AL, Lauderdale County, AL, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Calloway County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Giles County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Madison County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Obion County, TN, Perry County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Wayne County, TN, Weakley County, TN
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 932 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -67 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 860 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 31 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 26 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 1.1
The text
As transmitted.
542
ACUS11 KWNS 121411
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121410
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...WRN TN...NRN MS...NW AL...FAR SW KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 121410Z - 121545Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO WESTERN
TN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE SHOULD STORM INTENSITY INCREASE.
DISCUSSION...AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT MCS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RIVER/WRN TN INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION IS STILL EVIDENT PER
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WERE
EVIDENT SOUTH OF A W-E SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM FAR NE AR INTO NW
TN...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION WITH CONTINUED
HEATING AHEAD OF CONVECTION. INCREASED EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40 KT
DUE IN PART TO THE MCV WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION
AND STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE. GROUND TRUTH HAS BEEN LIMITED THIS
MORNING...WHICH SUPPORTS INHIBITION PREVENTING STRONGER GUSTS FROM
CURRENTLY REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE SHOULD INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY
OCCUR.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/12/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 35549081 36099087 36448993 36718847 36738819 36598780
36098737 35608711 35118701 34938706 34798721 34608775
34408921 34418966 34569044 34829067 35159080 35549081SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 8:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin and 5 more | 3 hr |
| May 11, 10:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more | 7 hr |
| May 11, 11:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crawford, Franklin, Logan, Scott, Sebastian | 119 min |
| May 12, 2:48 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Faulkner, Garland, Greene and 17 more | 87 min |
| May 12, 2:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Desha, Drew and 1 more | 87 min |
| May 11, 8:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Anderson, Barren, Bourbon, Boyle, Bullitt and 40 more | 96 min |
| May 11, 11:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Butler, Caldwell, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden and 21 more | 92 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.