Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 615
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2016, 11:28 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 92 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 11, 2016, 11:28 PM CDT (04:28 UTC)
- Expired
- May 12, 2016, 1:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 92 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 51 counties
Alexander County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Posey County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Butler County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Graves County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Logan County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Warren County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Iron County, MO, Madison County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, Perry County, MO, Scott County, MO, Wayne County, MO
The radar
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 212 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 541 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -58 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2087 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 71 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 89 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
867
ACUS11 KWNS 120428
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120428
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-120600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...WRN AND SRN IL...WRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171...
VALID 120428Z - 120600Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 171
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE MO...SRN IL INTO
FAR WRN KY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
BEYOND THE WATCH EXPIRATION AND A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED.
ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A BOWING LINE SEGMENT OVER FAR
SRN IL THAT HAS BEEN SUSTAINED IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THIS BOWING LINE IS LOCATED ALONG A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION. AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD...A MAX IN LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WHICH IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP NEAR THE IL-KY STATELINE...WILL
HELP TO SUSTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE BOWING LINE SEGMENT.
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ALONG
WITH AN ESEWD MOVEMENT AT 35 KT WILL MAKE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THE STRONGER PARTS OF THE LINE. THIS THREAT SHOULD
PERSIST AND A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/12/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...LSX...
LAT...LON 38328871 37798997 37639079 37229090 36838957 36588755
36568667 37038594 37578595 37948685 38328871SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 8:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Jefferson, Scott, Switzerland | 96 min |
| May 12, 9:10 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calloway, Fulton | 95 min |
| May 11, 8:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Christian, Douglas, Greene, Howell, Lawrence and 8 more | 3 hr |
| May 12, 2:48 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dunklin | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.