Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 618
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 12, 2016, 2:48 AM CDT for 23 counties in Arkansas; Dunklin County, Missouri; 4 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 12, 2016, 2:48 AM CDT (07:48 UTC)
- Expired
- May 12, 2016, 4:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 28 counties
Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Greene County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Perry County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Yell County, AR, Dunklin County, MO, Choctaw County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 213 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1205 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -82 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1636 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 149 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.6
The text
As transmitted.
987
ACUS11 KWNS 120749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120748
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-120915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN OK...W CNTRL THROUGH NE AR...AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SE MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172...
VALID 120748Z - 120915Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE
SPREADING EAST OF WATCH 172. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
APPRECIABLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...ANOTHER WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING
FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN EVOLVING LINE OF STORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.
HOWEVER...SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL SYSTEM-RELATIVE WINDS
ARE SUPPORTING INFLOW OF AIR STILL CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATELY LARGE
CAPE. THIS MAY MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ANOTHER FEW
HOURS...WITH 20-30 KT WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO
A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO AND THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
OZARK PLATEAU.
..KERR.. 05/12/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34819554 34979473 35039391 35599325 35859262 36559106
36108950 35579109 34659242 34249399 34039494 33999555
34149571 34489593 34819554SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 8:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin and 5 more | 3 hr |
| May 11, 10:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more | 7 hr |
| May 11, 11:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crawford, Franklin, Logan, Scott, Sebastian | 119 min |
| May 12, 9:10 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Mississippi, Poinsett | 95 min |
| May 12, 2:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Desha, Drew and 1 more | 87 min |
| May 11, 11:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Iron, Madison, Mississippi, Perry and 2 more | 92 min |
| May 11, 10:13 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman | 92 min |
| May 12, 2:12 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Comanche, Cotton, Jefferson, Stephens, Tillman | 93 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.