Alert archive / New Jersey / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 61

January 23, 20169 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 23, 2016, 6:40 PM EST for 9 states. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 23, 2016, 6:40 PM EST (23:40 UTC)
Expired
Jan 23, 2016, 10:45 PM EST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 85 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Barnstable County, MA, Bristol County, MA, Dukes County, MA, Nantucket County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Plymouth County, MA, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, York County, PA, Bristol County, RI, Kent County, RI, Newport County, RI, Providence County, RI, Washington County, RI, Arlington County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, Clarke County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Jefferson County, WV

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 16 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2016-01-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2016-01-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 210 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
487 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
210 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
394 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

420 
ACUS11 KWNS 232340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232340 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-240345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

VALID 232340Z - 240345Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...BUT GUSTY WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...POCKETS OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES /UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR/ MAY PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES PRESSURE FALLS AROUND
1-2 MB/HR AT BUOYS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS INTENSE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...AND MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. NONETHELESS...RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM SEVERAL SITES STILL
INDICATE HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REPORTED AT JFK
AND ISLIP NY. MOREOVER...KDIX AND KOKX ZDR/KDP DATA ILLUSTRATE A FEW
BANDS OF APPRECIABLE DENDRITIC/CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT...WHICH IS
SUSTAINING POCKETS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR. IN TURN...A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

ADDITIONALLY...AS MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY PIVOT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MA /ESPECIALLY NANTUCKET
AND EASTERN CAPE COD/ LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.

..PICCA.. 01/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   38867558 38217643 38117696 38397763 38567788 39187808
            40057728 41527374 42327119 42066998 41246976 40947103
            40297312 38867558

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 23, 4:20 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPC5 hr
Jan 23, 8:51 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPC4 hr
Jan 23, 12:44 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPC6 hr
Jan 22, 9:56 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle5 hr
Jan 23, 12:08 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex and 7 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.