Alert archive / New Jersey / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 61
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 23, 2016, 6:40 PM EST for 9 states. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 23, 2016, 6:40 PM EST (23:40 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 23, 2016, 10:45 PM EST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 85 counties
Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Barnstable County, MA, Bristol County, MA, Dukes County, MA, Nantucket County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Plymouth County, MA, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, York County, PA, Bristol County, RI, Kent County, RI, Newport County, RI, Providence County, RI, Washington County, RI, Arlington County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, Clarke County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Jefferson County, WV
The radar
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 16 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 487 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 60 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 210 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 394 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
420
ACUS11 KWNS 232340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232340
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-240345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND
CONCERNING...BLIZZARD
VALID 232340Z - 240345Z
SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...BUT GUSTY WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...POCKETS OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES /UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR/ MAY PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES PRESSURE FALLS AROUND
1-2 MB/HR AT BUOYS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS INTENSE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST...AND MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. NONETHELESS...RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM SEVERAL SITES STILL
INDICATE HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REPORTED AT JFK
AND ISLIP NY. MOREOVER...KDIX AND KOKX ZDR/KDP DATA ILLUSTRATE A FEW
BANDS OF APPRECIABLE DENDRITIC/CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT...WHICH IS
SUSTAINING POCKETS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR. IN TURN...A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...AS MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD
OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY PIVOT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MA /ESPECIALLY NANTUCKET
AND EASTERN CAPE COD/ LATE THIS EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.
..PICCA.. 01/23/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 38867558 38217643 38117696 38397763 38567788 39187808
40057728 41527374 42327119 42066998 41246976 40947103
40297312 38867558SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 4:20 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 5 hr | |
| Jan 23, 8:51 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 4 hr | |
| Jan 23, 12:44 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 6 hr | |
| Jan 22, 9:56 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kent, New Castle | 5 hr |
| Jan 23, 12:08 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex and 7 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.