Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 57
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 23, 2016, 12:08 AM EST for 13 counties in New Jersey; 6 counties in New York; 19 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 23, 2016, 12:08 AM EST (05:08 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 23, 2016, 5:15 AM EST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 38 counties
Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, York County, PA
The radar
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 00:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 746 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 65 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 225 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 719 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
703
ACUS11 KWNS 230509
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230508
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-231015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0057
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CST FRI JAN 22 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA...CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ...AND
THE NYC METRO
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 230508Z - 231015Z
SUMMARY...MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD...IMPACTING EASTERN PA...NORTHERN/CENTRAL NJ...NYC...AND
WESTERN LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MORNING. RATES UP
TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...AS AN 850-700 MB LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN EAST
TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH DEFORMATION ALOFT TO SPREAD
MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWFALL NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE AREA. SNOW
HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...BUT GENERALLY
HAS REMAINED LIGHT/MODERATE IN INTENSITY. NONETHELESS...THE KDOX VWP
EXHIBITS A LARGE/CYCLONICALLY LOOPED HODOGRAPH...INDICATING STRONG
WARM-AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE APPROXIMATE 1-4 KM LAYER TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION. MOREOVER...SFC OBS ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ SHOW PRESSURE
FALLS AROUND 2-2.5 MB/HR...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING
WARM-AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. THUS...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FURTHER
STRENGTHENS AND 850-700 MB FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...IMPROVED ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH/AGGREGATION PROCESSES WILL FAVOR
SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR LATE TONIGHT...MOST
LIKELY AROUND 07-10Z.
..PICCA.. 01/23/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39727723 39707770 40017792 40607726 41057604 41227481
41057410 40797346 39997411 39807582 39727723SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 9:56 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Ocean and 1 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 23, 4:20 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Essex, Gloucester and 13 more | 5 hr |
| Jan 23, 8:51 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson and 10 more | 4 hr |
| Jan 23, 12:44 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atlantic, Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Essex and 14 more | 6 hr |
| Jan 23, 6:40 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atlantic, Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Essex and 13 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.