Alert archive / New Jersey / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 60

January 23, 20167 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 23, 2016, 12:44 PM EST for 7 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 23, 2016, 12:44 PM EST (17:44 UTC)
Expired: Jan 23, 2016, 6:45 PM EST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 66 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Bristol County, MA, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, York County, PA, Bristol County, RI, Kent County, RI, Newport County, RI, Washington County, RI

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 487 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 210 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 394 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

678 
ACUS11 KWNS 231745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231744 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-232345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MD...ERN PA...NJ...SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

VALID 231744Z - 232345Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
FROM MD AND ERN PA ENEWD ACROSS NJ INTO SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH
SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NC WITH A POWERFUL 100 TO 120
KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE ERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 987 MB SFC
LOW IS LOCATED 190 STATUTE MILES TO THE SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY.
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW IN A
BAND FROM SE PA EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE
EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS ALSO ENHANCING LIFT. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND SHOW CONDITIONS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER FROM
500 TO 600 MB AND AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER FAVORABLE FOR AGGREGATION FROM
700 TO 900 MB. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE JUST TO THE NORTH
OF A DEFORMATION ZONE LOCATED NEAR THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE
RAP KEEPS THIS DEFORMATION ZONE NEARLY STATIONARY WHICH SHOULD KEEP
A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL NWD EXPANSION FROM NEAR
INTERSTATE 80 IN ERN PA ENEWD INTO NEW YORK CITY AND ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG INTERSTATE 95. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE MCD AREA ACROSS ERN PA...NRN NJ INTO THE NEW
YORK CITY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE.

..BROYLES.. 01/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   41687323 41867163 41767087 41437065 41087116 40717240
            40167366 38837545 38647638 38857695 39307745 39947731
            40727644 41157527 41687323

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 23, 4:20 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC		5 hr
Jan 23, 8:51 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC		4 hr
Jan 23, 6:40 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC		4 hr
Jan 22, 9:56 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Kent, New Castle	5 hr
Jan 23, 12:08 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex and 7 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.