Mesoscale Discussion 600

Issued

May 11, 2016, 5:34 AM CDT (10:34 UTC)

Expired

May 11, 2016, 7:15 AM CDT

In force

101 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

998 
ACUS11 KWNS 111034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111034 COR
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-111215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN KS...SE NEB...SW IA...WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166...

VALID 111034Z - 111215Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG SURFACE GUSTS WILL
PERSIST BEYOND DAYBREAK ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID MISSOURI
VALLEY... SPREADING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AND ST.
JOSEPH MO AREAS.

DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS WITHIN AN
EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT INCLUDES AT LEAST A BROAD LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  THIS IS FOCUSED WITHIN A ZONE OF
ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION /ROUGHLY AROUND 700 MB/...ON THE NOSE OF A
NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTING PLUME OF WARM AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING
ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR.  LATEST RAPID REFRESH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER NEAR/NORTHWEST OF ST. JOSEPH THROUGH 11-13Z.

ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE 50+ KT SOUTHERLY CENTRAL PLAINS
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL UNDERGO DIURNAL WEAKENING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SYSTEM-RELATIVE INFLOW...EMANATING FROM A RESIDUAL WEDGE OF
SEASONABLY MOIST AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND
70F/ OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...MAY MAINTAIN
VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITHIN THIS EVOLVING CLUSTER.
AT THE SAME TIME...VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF LOWER/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR WHAT/IF ANY LONGER TERM IMPACT THE EVOLVING
COLD POOL TO THE NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD MO WILL HAVE ON THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH...PARTICULARLY WITH THE EVOLVING DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL.  TO THIS POINT...STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY BE MOSTLY
RELATED TO A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION ACCOMPANYING THE
CONVECTION.  PROSPECTS FOR QUICK WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DOWNSTREAM OF CONVECTION AFTER DAYBREAK...WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ALONG A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
COLD POOL...ALSO APPEAR LIMITED.  HOWEVER...A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...IF IT DOES NOT INCREASE.

..KERR.. 05/11/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   40309639 41019546 40919369 39999330 39239315 38199301
            37029358 37709466 38259517 38409605 38569663 40309639

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.